We would need to win by 400 or so tiga.
If the Swans lost by 10 goals that would come down to more like 330.
The unfortunate thing is if the draw was fair we would actually have a very good chance. We played the top 3 5 times, including the cats twice. Saints played them 4 times, the cats just the once. Overall we did OK, beating Hawthorn, pushing them the other time, clutching a draw from the jaws of victory against the dogs but were miserable against the cats. The saints picked up a win over Hawthorn but were pretty uncompetitive otherwise. If the saints were playing Geelong in the final round we would be even money to make it.
Oh, and Essendon's season is over - they can't move up or down the ladder. The only small consolation is they won't be wanting to lose like certain other clubs.