Tigers tipped to fail (Age)

[Judge Roughneck]

Looks a fair bet to me.
We are a VERY good chance for the spoon this year IMO.
Not that I'm that fussed about it, we are well in transition.
Short term pain, long term gain.

Spot on Magic. Get behind Hardwick and the cubs who will struggle initially and in 2-3 years time watch them hit their straps. Next year if we win the spoon then we pick up another future gun with pick 4. As you say short term pain for long term gain.

Too late now.

This should have been the clubs aim in 05/06 instead of aiming for 9th

[Stripes]

The impatient part of me is starting to raise it's ugly head of late. I feel that over the last couple of decades and in particular in the last 8 years we have had more than our fair share of failure and no success. The rational realist in me knows waiting and dipping into a few more drafts would give us the list required to make a strong tilt at a flag but a little bit of finals action to show my kid that we are a good team after all would be nice too

OK back to being patient again....

Stripes

[mightytiges]

Looks a fair bet to me.
We are a VERY good chance for the spoon this year IMO.
Not that I'm that fussed about it, we are well in transition.
Short term pain, long term gain.

Spot on Magic. Get behind Hardwick and the cubs who will struggle initially and in 2-3 years time watch them hit their straps. Next year if we win the spoon then we pick up another future gun with pick 4. As you say short term pain for long term gain.

Too late now.

This should have been the clubs aim in 05/06 instead of aiming for 9th

How can it be too late when 82% of our list is 23 years old or younger?  ???

Sure we should have been further ahead in our rebuild by now but that's why Terry and Miller got the sack. Nothing we can do about that now except look and plan forward to the next year and draft and beyond.

[big tone]

Looks a fair bet to me.
We are a VERY good chance for the spoon this year IMO.
Not that I'm that fussed about it, we are well in transition.
Short term pain, long term gain.

Spot on Magic. Get behind Hardwick and the cubs who will struggle initially and in 2-3 years time watch them hit their straps. Next year if we win the spoon then we pick up another future gun with pick 4. As you say short term pain for long term gain.

Too late now.

This should have been the clubs aim in 05/06 instead of aiming for 9th

How can it be too late when 82% of our list is 23 years old or younger?  ???

Sure we should have been further ahead in our rebuild by now but that's why Terry and Miller got the sack. Nothing we can do about that now except look and plan forward to the next year and draft and beyond.

That's all well and good but with the drafts being comparmised over the next few years it only makes our job even harder. Sorry to state the bleeding obvious but to be going through a total rebuild at the moment is just bad planning and for us supporters, bad luck!!
Although if any team can get through this next period, it's us. I just hope we don't over achieve in 2010 and put us even further behind ALL teams.
We are starting from a long way back.

[Judge Roughneck]

Looks a fair bet to me.
We are a VERY good chance for the spoon this year IMO.
Not that I'm that fussed about it, we are well in transition.
Short term pain, long term gain.

Spot on Magic. Get behind Hardwick and the cubs who will struggle initially and in 2-3 years time watch them hit their straps. Next year if we win the spoon then we pick up another future gun with pick 4. As you say short term pain for long term gain.

Too late now.

This should have been the clubs aim in 05/06 instead of aiming for 9th

How can it be too late when 82% of our list is 23 years old or younger?  ???

Sure we should have been further ahead in our rebuild by now but that's why Terry and Miller got the sack. Nothing we can do about that now except look and plan forward to the next year and draft and beyond.

That's all well and good but with the drafts being comparmised over the next few years it only makes our job even harder. Sorry to state the bleeding obvious but to be going through a total rebuild at the moment is just bad planning and for us supporters, bad luck!!
Although if any team can get through this next period, it's us. I just hope we don't over achieve in 2010 and put us even further behind ALL teams.
We are starting from a long way back.

In 2005 I would have agree.

Not now. With the new draft rules there is not much point comming last / 2nd last for pick #5

[mightytiges]

Looks a fair bet to me.
We are a VERY good chance for the spoon this year IMO.
Not that I'm that fussed about it, we are well in transition.
Short term pain, long term gain.

Spot on Magic. Get behind Hardwick and the cubs who will struggle initially and in 2-3 years time watch them hit their straps. Next year if we win the spoon then we pick up another future gun with pick 4. As you say short term pain for long term gain.

Too late now.

This should have been the clubs aim in 05/06 instead of aiming for 9th

How can it be too late when 82% of our list is 23 years old or younger?  ???

Sure we should have been further ahead in our rebuild by now but that's why Terry and Miller got the sack. Nothing we can do about that now except look and plan forward to the next year and draft and beyond.

That's all well and good but with the drafts being comparmised over the next few years it only makes our job even harder. Sorry to state the bleeding obvious but to be going through a total rebuild at the moment is just bad planning and for us supporters, bad luck!!
Although if any team can get through this next period, it's us. I just hope we don't over achieve in 2010 and put us even further behind ALL teams.
We are starting from a long way back.

I agree BT with the last bit about us not overachieving and doing something stupid like finishing 9th-10th in 2010. A bottom 2 finish is more likely and not necessarily a bad thing given where we are at. However we won't be doing a total rebuild from scratch as we now have mostly a young core of players. Sure we need to still offload the remaining duds who we couldn't delist/trade away this year and we do still need to add more classier players to our list but the main task for Hardwick and co. now is to develop the current cubs we have to get the best out of them individually and especially as a team. Work hard to make them mentally and physically tougher and more disciplined and unselfish. 2010 should be about development, development and development.

Bents, there's still a big incentive for a struggling club to finish bottom as the wooden spooner ends up with pick 4 whereas a club that finishes say 11th ends up with pick 14. Even 13th only ends up with pick 10. Okay you could still ends up with a quality young footballer in the teens but top 5 picks are now worth their weight in gold.

[Smokey]

For those complaining about the total rebuild we require and the difficulties in improving through the draft over the next few years here are a few interesting numbers.  Looking for those clubs well placed (and those that aren't) with a young core of experience to take them forward I did a count of all players in every club who will turn 24 or younger next calendar year and who have played at least 1 senior AFL game:

Club           Players Games  Ave
Adelaide        18     493     27.39
Brisbane        18     515     28.61
Carlton          24     851     35.45
Collingwood   21      699    33.28
Essendon       20     659     32.95
Fremantle      12     183     15.25
Geelong         11    266     24.18
Hawthorn       21    797     37.95
Melbourne      22    536     24.36
Nth Melbourne 19   434     22.84
Pt Adelaide     16   478     29.87
Richmond       22   745     33.86
St Kilda         12    377    31.42
Sydney          14    307    21.93
West Coast     22    619    28.14
West Bullies   15    425    28.33

If you look at the core of each club then some clubs are quite well placed to 'weather the storm' of the next few compromised drafts while others are in serious strife.  It would appear that Carlton and Hawthorn are in very strong positions for numbers of good young players with Richmond, Collingwood and Essendon not too bad off either. At the other end of the scale I wouldn't like to be Nth Melbourne, Sydney, maybe Geelong and especially Fremantle - they in particular are in a world of hurt.

Obviously this doesn't account for the ability of each core group or any rookies but I have made an assumption that the higher the average games in the group then the more likely that they have sufficient ability to make it at the top level.  From our club's perspective, you can add a larger than average number of draftee's this year so as long as we have a fair return from our draft picks in the past season or two then we have every reason to look to the future with some optimism and less need to fear the upcoming drafts - much less so than quite a few others.

[bojangles17]

interesting, where did they tip us to come this year

[mightytiges]

For those complaining about the total rebuild we require and the difficulties in improving through the draft over the next few years here are a few interesting numbers.  Looking for those clubs well placed (and those that aren't) with a young core of experience to take them forward I did a count of all players in every club who will turn 24 or younger next calendar year and who have played at least 1 senior AFL game:

Club           Players Games  Ave
Adelaide        18     493     27.39
Brisbane        18     515     28.61
Carlton          24     851     35.45
Collingwood   21      699    33.28
Essendon       20     659     32.95
Fremantle      12     183     15.25
Geelong         11    266     24.18
Hawthorn       21    797     37.95
Melbourne      22    536     24.36
Nth Melbourne 19   434     22.84
Pt Adelaide     16   478     29.87
Richmond       22   745     33.86
St Kilda         12    377    31.42
Sydney          14    307    21.93
West Coast     22    619    28.14
West Bullies   15    425    28.33

If you look at the core of each club then some clubs are quite well placed to 'weather the storm' of the next few compromised drafts while others are in serious strife.  It would appear that Carlton and Hawthorn are in very strong positions for numbers of good young players with Richmond, Collingwood and Essendon not too bad off either. At the other end of the scale I wouldn't like to be Nth Melbourne, Sydney, maybe Geelong and especially Fremantle - they in particular are in a world of hurt.

Obviously this doesn't account for the ability of each core group or any rookies but I have made an assumption that the higher the average games in the group then the more likely that they have sufficient ability to make it at the top level.  From our club's perspective, you can add a larger than average number of draftee's this year so as long as we have a fair return from our draft picks in the past season or two then we have every reason to look to the future with some optimism and less need to fear the upcoming drafts - much less so than quite a few others.

Interesting post smokey. Looking at North's list they may do better than us initially as they have more senior players still around but I don't see the alleged "obvious" improvement that the media sees for the reason you mentioned. 

Hawthorn in 2004 were in a similar position to us now. They had a whole group of young players with games under their belt - Hodge, Mitchell, Bateman, Ladson, Osborne, Campbell, Williams, etc - but we didn't rate most of them at that stage because the Hawks were crap back then. The question for us is does our young group have the capabilities under a good coach to take us up the ladder and genuinely challenge in a few years time when they mature and hit their peak? It's still an unknown question. Apart from Lids and Blingers our younger players (even our top picks - see below) have at best reached just 50 games. As we already know we have mostly a very young, inexperienced and unproven group of player now most of the older players have made way for them.

Deledio (pick 1) - 106 games
Cotchin (2) - 25
Martin  (3) -  -
Tambling (4) - 95
Vickery (8 ) - 9
Riewoldt (13) - 46
Rance (18) - 15
Griffiths (19) - -
Polo (20) - 52
Post (26) - 7
Edwards (26) - 47
Morton (35) - 50
Astbury (35) - -
McGuane (36) - 54

[bojangles17]

to name just a few key reasons I reasonably expect to see some improvement...

• Foley
  Cotchin
  Collins

all to play R1

Improvement in BIG men...Vickery and Post to aid JR, MM in the front half

and I haven't even mentioned the potential impact of NEW coaching group nor the impact of any one of the 14 draft choices

[Smokey]

Interesting post smokey. Looking at North's list they may do better than us initially as they have more senior players still around but I don't see the alleged "obvious" improvement that the media sees for the reason you mentioned. 

Hawthorn in 2004 were in a similar position to us now. They had a whole group of young players with games under their belt - Hodge, Mitchell, Bateman, Ladson, Osborne, Campbell, Williams, etc - but we didn't rate most of them at that stage because the Hawks were crap back then. The question for us is does our young group have the capabilities under a good coach to take us up the ladder and genuinely challenge in a few years time when they mature and hit their peak? It's still an unknown question. Apart from Lids and Blingers our younger players (even our top picks - see below) have at best reached just 50 games. As we already know we have mostly a very young, inexperienced and unproven group of player now most of the older players have made way for them.

Deledio (pick 1) - 106 games
Cotchin (2) - 25
Martin  (3) -  -
Tambling (4) - 95
Vickery (8 ) - 9
Riewoldt (13) - 46
Rance (18) - 15
Griffiths (19) - -
Polo (20) - 52
Post (26) - 7
Edwards (26) - 47
Morton (35) - 50
Astbury (35) - -
McGuane (36) - 54

Here's a list of our 22 'young' players with their game tally (top 10 underlined):

Deledio      106
Tambling     95
Jackson       69
McGuane     54
White         54
Thursfield    53
Polo           52
Edwards      47
Riewoldt     46
Morton       38
Cotchin      25
Nahas        19
Graham     18
Rance        15
Hislop        12
Collins       10
Connors     10
Vickery       9
Post           7
Farmer       3
Thomson    2
Browne      1

And for interest's sake - Foley misses this list by 3 months - he has 84 games under his belt.

IMHO there is a fair bit of talent in that list going forward and that's not allowing for any of this year's picks or the complete change in coaching personnel and the new attitude/direction they are taking.  We aren't at rock bottom and we will improve this year - those that want to back us to finish last would be well advised not to waste their hard-earned.

[big tone]

Interesting post smokey. Looking at North's list they may do better than us initially as they have more senior players still around but I don't see the alleged "obvious" improvement that the media sees for the reason you mentioned. 

Hawthorn in 2004 were in a similar position to us now. They had a whole group of young players with games under their belt - Hodge, Mitchell, Bateman, Ladson, Osborne, Campbell, Williams, etc - but we didn't rate most of them at that stage because the Hawks were crap back then. The question for us is does our young group have the capabilities under a good coach to take us up the ladder and genuinely challenge in a few years time when they mature and hit their peak? It's still an unknown question. Apart from Lids and Blingers our younger players (even our top picks - see below) have at best reached just 50 games. As we already know we have mostly a very young, inexperienced and unproven group of player now most of the older players have made way for them.

Deledio (pick 1) - 106 games
Cotchin (2) - 25
Martin  (3) -  -
Tambling (4) - 95
Vickery (8 ) - 9
Riewoldt (13) - 46
Rance (18) - 15
Griffiths (19) - -
Polo (20) - 52
Post (26) - 7
Edwards (26) - 47
Morton (35) - 50
Astbury (35) - -
McGuane (36) - 54

Here's a list of our 22 'young' players with their game tally (top 10 underlined):

Deledio      106
Tambling     95
Jackson       69
McGuane     54
White         54
Thursfield    53
Polo           52
Edwards      47
Riewoldt     46
Morton       38
Cotchin      25
Nahas        19
Graham     18
Rance        15
Hislop        12
Collins       10
Connors     10
Vickery       9
Post           7
Farmer       3
Thomson    2
Browne      1

And for interest's sake - Foley misses this list by 3 months - he has 84 games under his belt.

IMHO there is a fair bit of talent in that list going forward and that's not allowing for any of this year's picks or the complete change in coaching personnel and the new attitude/direction they are taking.  We aren't at rock bottom and we will improve this year - those that want to back us to finish last would be well advised not to waste their hard-earned.

Had the same list of under 22 you mention this year and where did we end up! If we are to improve most of it will come from the new faces we have recruited and only a few of the players already on our list. We still have a lot of DUDS in that under 22 year old bracket that will take us nowhere... So my advice is to load up on the Tigers finishing bottom or very close to.

[Smokey]

Had the same list of under 22 you mention this year and where did we end up!

15th - but I'm sure you didn't need to ask.

Some of that list got their first exposure to senior football, some showed enough ability to get a large number of games, some (mostly the 'older' ones in the group) played full seasons and gained the invaluable experience of maturity in adversity.  All in all, when compared to most other sides, this group as a collective showed it has a lot of talent and above average levels of experience - 2 critical things that this club will rely on as we move forward under a new coaching regime.

If we are to improve most of it will come from the new faces we have recruited and only a few of the players already on our list. We still have a lot of DUDS in that under 22 year old bracket that will take us nowhere... So my advice is to load up on the Tigers finishing bottom or very close to.

When we improve next season most of it will come from that list of 22 and the new coaching group.  Any further improvement past that will be accentuated by this year's draft picks but as far as next season goes, the only one that you could realistically forecast having some sort of impact in his first year is Martin.  We will always have duds in any new group as will every single club in the competition and to rely on this years draft group as the impetus for improvement is a fool's folly - I believe my original post demonstrated that we are better placed with our future 'young' core than most other clubs and as long as we realise an average return from our current new draftee's then we will remain in better shape than most others - if we get lucky and have an above average return then all the better.

So my advice is to open yourself a Betfair account and lay Richmond to your heart's content - just don't whinge when it all unravels as we become much more competitive next season and you "didn't see it coming".

[big tone]

Had the same list of under 22 you mention this year and where did we end up!

15th - but I'm sure you didn't need to ask.

Some of that list got their first exposure to senior football, some showed enough ability to get a large number of games, some (mostly the 'older' ones in the group) played full seasons and gained the invaluable experience of maturity in adversity.  All in all, when compared to most other sides, this group as a collective showed it has a lot of talent and above average levels of experience - 2 critical things that this club will rely on as we move forward under a new coaching regime.

If we are to improve most of it will come from the new faces we have recruited and only a few of the players already on our list. We still have a lot of DUDS in that under 22 year old bracket that will take us nowhere... So my advice is to load up on the Tigers finishing bottom or very close to.

When we improve next season most of it will come from that list of 22 and the new coaching group.  Any further improvement past that will be accentuated by this year's draft picks but as far as next season goes, the only one that you could realistically forecast having some sort of impact in his first year is Martin.  We will always have duds in any new group as will every single club in the competition and to rely on this years draft group as the impetus for improvement is a fool's folly - I believe my original post demonstrated that we are better placed with our future 'young' core than most other clubs and as long as we realise an average return from our current new draftee's then we will remain in better shape than most others - if we get lucky and have an above average return then all the better.

So my advice is to open yourself a Betfair account and lay Richmond to your heart's content - just don't whinge when it all unravels as we become much more competitive next season and you "didn't see it coming".

Don't take this the wrong was smokey58 but i think it is you that maybe being a little foolish! You can put as many lists together as you like but the fact is the list of 22 and unders mentioned, only half are any good. And of the good half, half are to young to tell if they will be any good.
It's ok to hope at this time of year but try not to live in fairy land. Just crossing your finger and hoping will not get this club to where we would all like. It takes hard work, a good coaching team and most of all good players.
All that being said where do you seeing us ending up on the ladder next year with all this improvement ahead?

[mightytiges]

Here's a list of our 22 'young' players with their game tally (top 10 underlined):

And for interest's sake - Foley misses this list by 3 months - he has 84 games under his belt.

IMHO there is a fair bit of talent in that list going forward and that's not allowing for any of this year's picks or the complete change in coaching personnel and the new attitude/direction they are taking.  We aren't at rock bottom and we will improve this year - those that want to back us to finish last would be well advised not to waste their hard-earned.

Now I'm not saying I think our list is going nowhere or I enjoy seeing us finishing last  but out of those names there's still too many unproven young players smokey and structurally we are still weak in the spine and midfield depth not to see us as wooden spoon favourites. Most sides improve each year so to move up the ladder you need to improve at a far greater rate than those teams above us. I can't see that happening in 2010. A 22 round season is a marathon as well. Young bodies get tired and sore as the season goes along compared to battle-hardened footballers in their mid-20s with 6 to 7 preseasons under their belt.

We needed to clean out the decks as we've done but in doing so we'll cop more short-term pain before we go forward and up. The list is too young and inexperienced to see us not finishing in the bottom 3. Moreso we need to add more class to the names on that U23 list including the newbies we've picked up this year. A bottom 2 finish in 2010 and a top 6 pick wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen. On the other hand a 9th-11th finish with a first pick in the mid-teens would be a disaster. The club needs to plan for 2012-14; not 2010. 2010 should be all about mental and physical development as individuals and as a team. The win/loss tally will be irrelevant.

Deledio      106 - tick
Tambling     95 - tick (although he could still become ten times the player he is now).
Jackson       69 - if Jacko ended up as our 18th-22nd player then okay but we can't have him in our top 10 players.
McGuane     54 - see Jacko
White         54 - big year for Whitey to prove himself at AFL level
Thursfield    53 - I like Thursty although he had an ordinary first half of 2009 due to off-field issues apparently.
Polo           52 - see White
Edwards      47 - see White
Riewoldt     46 - tick (practice goalkicking though Jack!)
Morton       38 - tick
Cotchin      25 - tick
Nahas        19 - needs to back up first year.
Graham     18 - still needs time to prove himself. I still think he is improving although some of our fans think he is a spud.
Rance        15 - still needs time to prove himself
Hislop        12 - don't think he'll survive
Collins       10 - showing promise but still a fair way to go.
Connors     10 - see White. Has the natural talent though to make it. Needs a preseason and get his brain into gear.
Vickery       9 - tick even at this young age IMO. Touchwood he gets no injuries.
Post           7 - too early to call but showed lots of promise in his debut year.
Farmer       3 - see White
Thomson    2 - don't think he'll survive. Never a fan before we traded for him as you know.
Browne      1 - very raw still.

6 ticks at best means we are still too young and unproven IMV.