Tigers tipped to fail (Age)

[Smokey]

Don't take this the wrong was smokey58 but i think it is you that maybe being a little foolish!

Maybe, but I'm basing my opinion on statistics, experience and considered intuition - it works for me at my age.

You can put as many lists together as you like but the fact is the list of 22 and unders mentioned, only half are any good. And of the good half, half are to young to tell if they will be any good.

Thank you for backing my point up.  This same list of 22 (inclusive of duds) were the ones that couldn't finish on the bottom this year to save their lives - no Richo, no Bowden, no Simmonds, little Tuck.  And because of all the points I have already mentioned, they will only get better next season.  MT mentioned how many of the Hawthorn 'core' were unrated unknowns in 2004 but the whole football world made the mistake of paying them scant respect - and they won a premiership 4 years later.  Yes, some of them won't make it but that's going to happen to every single list, not only ours.  I ask you to go through the same list from each other club and point out how many are in a better place than us for the future.  Maybe you misunderstood my original point - I'm talking about the core group of young players that will take each of the 16 clubs forward in the next few years, not be world beaters next year.  This year's draft list is a total unknown and so is the next and the next.  The group that will lead each and every club into the future is this core group of kids - ours is the equal or better of most others.  And ours has a very high level of experience compared to the others.  And it was ours that couldn't even finish last this season.  Unlike all the others who had a much larger number of seasoned campaigners to fall back on, we can only possibly go one way next season unless the new coaching regime and playing list collectively have the mother of all brain farts.

It's ok to hope at this time of year but try not to live in fairy land. Just crossing your finger and hoping will not get this club to where we would all like. It takes hard work, a good coaching team and most of all good players.

At my age I outgrew fairy land 40+ years ago.  I'll take my subjective and balanced reasoning over your blind pessimism every day.  Thank you for adding to my knowledge by pointing out what it takes to make a good team - my lifetime in football was obviously of no benefit.

All that being said where do you seeing us ending up on the ladder next year with all this improvement ahead?

Somewhere between 6th and 12th.  Have you opened that Betfair account yet?

[Smokey]

Now I'm not saying I think our list is going nowhere or I enjoy seeing us finishing last  but out of those names there's still too many unproven young players smokey and structurally we are still weak in the spine and midfield depth not to see us as wooden spoon favourites. Most sides improve each year so to move up the ladder you need to improve at a far greater rate than those teams above us. I can't see that happening in 2010. A 22 round season is a marathon as well. Young bodies get tired and sore as the season goes along compared to battle-hardened footballers in their mid-20s with 6 to 7 preseasons under their belt.

Every side doesn't improve each year MT - just as many go backwards as forwards.  Yes, the standard of football might 'improve' across the competition but ladder positions and games won/lost say that as many go backwards as forwards.  That's where I believe the group I highlighted will stand us in good stead as a start point.  They will not be the only ones responsible for our improvement but they will shoulder the load in the next few years and for the reasons I have already mentioned I believe we are better placed in that regard than most other clubs.

We needed to clean out the decks as we've done but in doing so we'll cop more short-term pain before we go forward and up. The list is too young and inexperienced to see us not finishing in the bottom 3.

Conversely, I believe this group is too old and experienced to allow that to happen naturally.

Moreso we need to add more class to the names on that U23 list including the newbies we've picked up this year. A bottom 2 finish in 2010 and a top 6 pick wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen. On the other hand a 9th-11th finish with a first pick in the mid-teens would be a disaster. The club needs to plan for 2012-14; not 2010. 2010 should be all about mental and physical development as individuals and as a team. The win/loss tally will be irrelevant.

Yes, but it will be largely out of their control unless they start chucking games in the first half of the season.  A bottom 2 finish would be fantastic but it ain't going to happen.  The club is already planning well and truly for 2012-14 but that doesn't mean it must or will involve finishing rock bottom next season - far from it.

Deledio      106 - tick
Tambling     95 - tick (although he could still become ten times the player he is now).
Jackson       69 - if Jacko ended up as our 18th-22nd player then okay but we can't have him in our top 10 players.
McGuane     54 - see Jacko
White         54 - big year for Whitey to prove himself at AFL level
Thursfield    53 - I like Thursty although he had an ordinary first half of 2009 due to off-field issues apparently.
Polo           52 - see White
Edwards      47 - see White
Riewoldt     46 - tick (practice goalkicking though Jack!)
Morton       38 - tick
Cotchin      25 - tick
Nahas        19 - needs to back up first year.
Graham     18 - still needs time to prove himself. I still think he is improving although some of our fans think he is a spud.
Rance        15 - still needs time to prove himself
Hislop        12 - don't think he'll survive
Collins       10 - showing promise but still a fair way to go.
Connors     10 - see White. Has the natural talent though to make it. Needs a preseason and get his brain into gear.
Vickery       9 - tick even at this young age IMO. Touchwood he gets no injuries.
Post           7 - too early to call but showed lots of promise in his debut year.
Farmer       3 - see White
Thomson    2 - don't think he'll survive. Never a fan before we traded for him as you know.
Browne      1 - very raw still.

6 ticks at best means we are still too young and unproven IMV.

And if this same "6 tick" rated core were the driving force for us not being able to finish on the bottom this year then imho we can not possibly finish off in a worse position next season given a new coaching direction and natural improvement through development.

[mightytiges]

Every side doesn't improve each year MT - just as many go backwards as forwards.  Yes, the standard of football might 'improve' across the competition but ladder positions and games won/lost say that as many go backwards as forwards.  That's where I believe the group I highlighted will stand us in good stead as a start point.  They will not be the only ones responsible for our improvement but they will shoulder the load in the next few years and for the reasons I have already mentioned I believe we are better placed in that regard than most other clubs.

I did say most sides improve rather all  . IMV most sides improve overall from year to year but it's the various rates of improvement between clubs that sees the shuffling in ladder positions and wins/losses. Ladder position can also be affected by things other than the age, experience and ability of your list. You could get a tougher draw and have key players missing for long periods due to injury so yes you can go backwards as Hawthorn did. Conversely you could get lucky and make the finals with just 10 wins as Essendon did this year when on average 12-13 wins is needed to make the finals. What I'm saying is ignoring the uncontrollable variables in footy like the fixture and the possibility of no or a stack of major injuries, I don't see us finishing outside the bottom 3 in 2010. I do agree with you smokey that we are better placed for the mid-to-long term than many other clubs but I'm talking specifically 2010.

We needed to clean out the decks as we've done but in doing so we'll cop more short-term pain before we go forward and up. The list is too young and inexperienced to see us not finishing in the bottom 3.

Conversely, I believe this group is too old and experienced to allow that to happen naturally.

With just 9 or so players above 23 y.o. (they're your senior core) and half of them fringe players at best and us now having youngest list in the AFL, I can't see how we are too old and experienced to not finish near the bottom naturally in 2010. We may not finish bottom but we would be one of if not the favourite to do so.

Yes, but it will be largely out of their control unless they start chucking games in the first half of the season.  A bottom 2 finish would be fantastic but it ain't going to happen.  The club is already planning well and truly for 2012-14 but that doesn't mean it must or will involve finishing rock bottom next season - far from it.

Sorry smokey as I said I don't see the "ain't going to happen" and "far from it" parts in regard to finishing bottom. Could we finish higher than bottom 2 or 3? - of course we could as anything is possible in a sport with so many variables as footy has. We as you allude to could surprise with a good start in the first half of the 2010 season. But it would be a major major surprise and from a 2012-14 viewpoint it would be disasterous if we overachieve next year and end up with a mid-teen first pick. If we learnt anything from 2009 it's that a couple of cheap meaningless wins cost you in some fashion at the draft table. Pick 17 would have been a handy extra pick this year. Next year, although there's no priority picks, a couple of meaningless wins could prove the difference between a top 6 pick and a mid-teen pick. Not worth it. I hope our focus is 100% on development rather than trying to push up the ladder next year.

And if this same "6 tick" rated core were the driving force for us not being able to finish on the bottom this year then imho we can not possibly finish off in a worse position next season given a new coaching direction and natural improvement through development.

Remember we were one straight Jordie kick after the siren away from bottom this year against a team that was deliberately playing to lose. We were the worst side in the comp. this year. We were the worst skilled side especially by foot . We are starting behind everyone else and well behind most. Yep we hope Hardwick and the new coaching staff is a million times better than Wallace and we see significant natural development in our cubs in time. However North supporters will be saying the same about their list. Likewise Melbourne will expect to rise off the bottom now they are no longer tanking as well as getting players back from injury. Hardwick as good as he may be isn't a miracle maker. With our list it's going to take him time to turn things around.

As I said the improvement has to be at a rate far greater than your competitors to see the improvement in terms of wins/losses (ignoring fixture and injury imbalances). I just don't see us smokey seeing that rate of improvement to push us up the ladder in 2010. Beyond 2011 definitely yes as the list will be starting to mature. In 2010 though it's a no unfortunately IMO. 

[big tone]

Don't take this the wrong was smokey58 but i think it is you that maybe being a little foolish!

Maybe, but I'm basing my opinion on statistics, experience and considered intuition - it works for me at my age.

You can put as many lists together as you like but the fact is the list of 22 and unders mentioned, only half are any good. And of the good half, half are to young to tell if they will be any good.

Thank you for backing my point up.  This same list of 22 (inclusive of duds) were the ones that couldn't finish on the bottom this year to save their lives - no Richo, no Bowden, no Simmonds, little Tuck.  And because of all the points I have already mentioned, they will only get better next season.  MT mentioned how many of the Hawthorn 'core' were unrated unknowns in 2004 but the whole football world made the mistake of paying them scant respect - and they won a premiership 4 years later.  Yes, some of them won't make it but that's going to happen to every single list, not only ours.  I ask you to go through the same list from each other club and point out how many are in a better place than us for the future.  Maybe you misunderstood my original point - I'm talking about the core group of young players that will take each of the 16 clubs forward in the next few years, not be world beaters next year.  This year's draft list is a total unknown and so is the next and the next.  The group that will lead each and every club into the future is this core group of kids - ours is the equal or better of most others.  And ours has a very high level of experience compared to the others.  And it was ours that couldn't even finish last this season.  Unlike all the others who had a much larger number of seasoned campaigners to fall back on, we can only possibly go one way next season unless the new coaching regime and playing list collectively have the mother of all brain farts.

It's ok to hope at this time of year but try not to live in fairy land. Just crossing your finger and hoping will not get this club to where we would all like. It takes hard work, a good coaching team and most of all good players.

At my age I outgrew fairy land 40+ years ago.  I'll take my subjective and balanced

reasoning over your blind pessimism every day.  Thank you for adding to my knowledge by pointing out what it takes to make a good team - my lifetime in football was obviously of no benefit.

All that being said where do you seeing us ending up on the ladder next year with all this improvement ahead?

Somewhere between 6th and 12th.  Have you opened that Betfair account yet?

How about this old wise one- how's about puting your money where your experienced, subjective and balanced big mouth is and have a bet with me, no need to give our money away to Betfair is there. A couple of hundred ok with you? I'll take bottom 4 and you take the rest?
Also throwing your age around as some kind of importance is childish and pathetic- nobody cares how long you have been alive or even how long you have been watching footy. 

[Smokey]

With just 9 or so players above 23 y.o. (they're your senior core) and half of them fringe players at best and us now having youngest list in the AFL, I can't see how we are too old and experienced to not finish near the bottom naturally in 2010. We may not finish bottom but we would be one of if not the favourite to do so.

But that's the thing MT - we didn't finish last with the exact same list - not one player who has retired or been delisted made one scrap of difference to our team last season.  This young core dragged us to 15th so with all things occurring as natural evolution and then chucking in the benefit of a coaching group with an entirely different outlook then it is nigh on impossible for us not to improve significantly - whether we want to or not.

I hope our focus is 100% on development rather than trying to push up the ladder next year.

If you get your wish then my prediction will be 100% correct.

Remember we were one straight Jordie kick after the siren away from bottom this year against a team that was deliberately playing to lose. We were the worst side in the comp. this year.

I disagree.  We were in winning positions in most of our games for large parts of those games - Melbourne weren't.  We lost games last season that we will not lose from the same position next season.  We were still young and playing with the lead weight of a failed coaching group - that is respectively much less and no longer the case.

As I said the improvement has to be at a rate far greater than your competitors to see the improvement in terms of wins/losses (ignoring fixture and injury imbalances). I just don't see us smokey seeing that rate of improvement to push us up the ladder in 2010. Beyond 2011 definitely yes as the list will be starting to mature. In 2010 though it's a no unfortunately IMO. 

We will agree to disagree MT.  I've been saying it from mid-way through the last season - the football world will underestimate us next season at their peril and even though I don't believe we are anywhere near challenging the Top 4 I still think we will finish a lot higher than 15th.

[Smokey]

How about this old wise one- how's about puting your money where your experienced, subjective and balanced big mouth is and have a bet with me, no need to give our money away to Betfair is there. A couple of hundred ok with you? I'll take bottom 4 and you take the rest?

Happy to make it a friendly bet for a lotto ticket between you and I.  I've already wagered what I can afford to on us re: next year's finish.

Also throwing your age around as some kind of importance is childish and pathetic- nobody cares how long you have been alive or even how long you have been watching footy. 

Sadly, there is no substitute for experience in whatever realm of life you wish to deal and using that in conjunction with my research is how I arrived at my opinion - nothing childish or pathetic or unusual in that.  What is childish and pathetic is chucking around opinions with bluster and bravado but zero fact or argument to back it up, then hoping that will impress people.

[yellowandback]

How about this old wise one- how's about puting your money where your experienced, subjective and balanced big mouth is and have a bet with me, no need to give our money away to Betfair is there. A couple of hundred ok with you? I'll take bottom 4 and you take the rest?
Also throwing your age around as some kind of importance is childish and pathetic- nobody cares how long you have been alive or even how long you have been watching footy. 

can't help yourself can you?
Classic!

Smokey, age has also taught dignity and patience!

[mightytiges]

But that's the thing MT - we didn't finish last with the exact same list - not one player who has retired or been delisted made one scrap of difference to our team last season.  This young core dragged us to 15th so with all things occurring as natural evolution and then chucking in the benefit of a coaching group with an entirely different outlook then it is nigh on impossible for us not to improve significantly - whether we want to or not.

I agree the players we've lost won't make a scrap of difference (Richo the only big loss and he was injured after the first month). But 15th is still second last and we did only miss on last spot thanks to a kick after the siren against a team delberately trying to use.

I'm still positive though as I don't see us going backwards even if on the ladder next year we finished last. Ladder position is not what I will be judging the side on in 2010. It's the standard of team footy and player development I'll be looking at. We were awful this year. Footskills and lack of team structure offensively and especially defensively made us the worst team. Even Melbourne had a better structure in the way they played than us. It's going to take Hardwick 2010 just to re-program us from all that crap we played.

I disagree.  We were in winning positions in most of our games for large parts of those games - Melbourne weren't.  We lost games last season that we will not lose from the same position next season.  We were still young and playing with the lead weight of a failed coaching group - that is respectively much less and no longer the case.

Game is over 4 quarters though smokey. Playing 2 quarters per game as we did for most of year doesn't cut it. Of our 5 wins three were by less than a kick. Standard wise we were the worst team in the comp.

Carl - flogged
Geel - played one great quarter kicking 8 goals. Flogged in the other 3.
Dogs - flogged
Melb - embarrassing even though we lost by only 8 points.
Roos - comfortable win. Shocking game standard wise though.
Syd - were playing catch-up footy all day and as a result one bad mistake (by jack) cost us.
Bris - competitive for 2.5 qtrs then flogged.
Port - choked in final 5 minutes. Should have won.
Ess - dominated first half but because we aren't very good only lead by 2 goals. Flogged in second half.
Freo - toss of a coin game. Just got over the line by 3 points.
Dogs- flogged
WC - blitzed in first quarter and should have been more than 4 goals ahead. Ordinary game after that by did enough to stay arms length ahead to win.
St K - good first quarter holding the Saints goal-less then flogged.
Adel - flogged. Scoreboard flattered us thanks to a decent last qtr when the game was over.
Carl - dominated 3rd qtr but couldn't kick straight. Blues well on top in the other 3 qtrs.
North - dominated first half; flogged in second half. "Lucky" to get away with a draw.
Ess - only win we should be proud of even if it was by only 5 points. Good standard of footy for 4 qtrs.
Melb - joke of a game. Only time ever I've walked out after a win and didn't sing the song. Too embarrassed to do so.
Syd - flogged
Coll - flogged
Haw - fought hard but not good enough. Hawks won easy in the end.
WC - flogged (because we didn't care)

We will agree to disagree MT.  I've been saying it from mid-way through the last season - the football world will underestimate us next season at their peril and even though I don't believe we are anywhere near challenging the Top 4 I still think we will finish a lot higher than 15th.

No probs smokey. It's all opinion  .

I know you won't do this as you're not a coach/player-basher  but I hope our supporters in the main don't get their hopes up next year and then bag Hardwick unmercifully when we struggle. Young sides are notorious for being inconsistent and unpredictable - one week out of blue very good and then crap for the next month. That's another reason why I see us finishing bottom 3.

[Smokey]

Young sides are notorious for being inconsistent and unpredictable - one week out of blue very good and then crap for the next month. That's another reason why I see us finishing bottom 3.

Yep MT, that's what I'm expecting too but I believe that despite the inconsistency we will also win a few more games than last year due to my reasons above and a few more than 5 is 8 or 9 - that will put us a long way from the bottom few.

[Smokey]

Game is over 4 quarters though smokey. Playing 2 quarters per game as we did for most of year doesn't cut it. Of our 5 wins three were by less than a kick. Standard wise we were the worst team in the comp.

Carl - flogged
Geel - played one great quarter kicking 8 goals. Flogged in the other 3.
Dogs - flogged
Melb - embarrassing even though we lost by only 8 points.
Roos - comfortable win. Shocking game standard wise though.
Syd - were playing catch-up footy all day and as a result one bad mistake (by jack) cost us.
Bris - competitive for 2.5 qtrs then flogged.
Port - choked in final 5 minutes. Should have won.
Ess - dominated first half but because we aren't very good only lead by 2 goals. Flogged in second half.
Freo - toss of a coin game. Just got over the line by 3 points.
Dogs- flogged
WC - blitzed in first quarter and should have been more than 4 goals ahead. Ordinary game after that by did enough to stay arms length ahead to win.
St K - good first quarter holding the Saints goal-less then flogged.
Adel - flogged. Scoreboard flattered us thanks to a decent last qtr when the game was over.
Carl - dominated 3rd qtr but couldn't kick straight. Blues well on top in the other 3 qtrs.
North - dominated first half; flogged in second half. "Lucky" to get away with a draw.
Ess - only win we should be proud of even if it was by only 5 points. Good standard of footy for 4 qtrs.
Melb - joke of a game. Only time ever I've walked out after a win and didn't sing the song. Too embarrassed to do so.
Syd - flogged
Coll - flogged
Haw - fought hard but not good enough. Hawks won easy in the end.
WC - flogged (because we didn't care)

Yep MT, absolutely agree your point about 4 quarter games but that is a byproduct of age and experience as much as anything and when you add the abysmal disconnect between the coaching group and playing list last season then that combination was always going to see us lose most games (even though most of us didn't see it coming pre-Round 1).

It's easy to say in most of the above games that we got flogged but the reality was that in spite of all our 'handicaps' - age, experience, coaching, confidence, skill level - we were in winning positions late in many of those games.  We didn't have the attributes necessary to take advantage of those positions in most games however we have already addressed some of them and others are being or will be addressed as a flow on.  For example, our terrible skills can in some way be blamed on our total lack of confidence and lack of pressure on the ball carrier.  By getting older, gaining more experience, increasing our pressure and re-instilling confidence we will 'magically' appear more skillful than what we were without any visible change to the playing list but if you look underneath then the reasons will be plain to see.  Then add in the influence of new gameplans, coaching methods/focus and more highly skilled draftees and that's what I'm basing my opinion on.  Here's my take on last year's games:

Carl - 59 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Geel - point in front at 3/4 time - winnable.
Dogs - 21 points down at 3/4 time - winnable.
Melb - lost by 8 points - winnable.
Roos - won by 36 points.
Syd - 15 points down at 3/4 time - winnable.
Bris - 3 points down at 3/4 time - winnable.
Port - 4 points up at 3/4 time - winnable.
Ess - 12 points down at 3/4 time - winnable.
Freo - won by 3 points.
Dogs - 42 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
WC - won by 15 points.
St K - 60 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Adel - 40 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Carl - 31 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
North - 14 points up at 3/4 time - winnable.
Ess - won by 5 points.
Melb - won by 4 points.
Syd - 64 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Coll - 97 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Haw - 32 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
WC - 72 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.

I make it we were in winnable positions in 8 games not including the 5 wins so just a repeat of last season would see us potentially with up to 13 wins.  No, we won't win them all but we will win some we lost - hence my reason for seeing ladder improvement next season.  And interestingly, of the 9 games that were unwinnable at 3/4 time, 7 of them came in the final 10 rounds, when it was obvious that most, if not all of the coaching group were gone.

[mightytiges]

Yep MT, absolutely agree your point about 4 quarter games but that is a byproduct of age and experience as much as anything and when you add the abysmal disconnect between the coaching group and playing list last season then that combination was always going to see us lose most games (even though most of us didn't see it coming pre-Round 1).

I agree with the point about us not being able to play out 4 quarters as being a byproduct of all those things. Where we differ is I don't see in 2010 our new coaching staff no matter how good they are making up for the lack of age, experience and a list still lacking the required class.

It's easy to say in most of the above games that we got flogged but the reality was that in spite of all our 'handicaps' - age, experience, coaching, confidence, skill level - we were in winning positions late in many of those games.  We didn't have the attributes necessary to take advantage of those positions in most games however we have already addressed some of them and others are being or will be addressed as a flow on.

I again agree with the first sentence in some ways. I would add we were simply nowhere good enough either. We are coming from a long way back.

  For example, our terrible skills can in some way be blamed on our total lack of confidence and lack of pressure on the ball carrier. 

While from a team perspective with the old coaching staff in charge there's an argument to support that, we do/did still have too many players who are simply poor or unreliable kicks at this level especially under any form of pressure. Our skills crumble too easily. At training when there's no pressure the same players were missing targets. Even now under Hardwick we have players missing simple lead-up targets (at least Hardwick makes them do 20 push-ups as punishment). If someone doesn't have AFL standard footskills then they're stuffed in the modern game and need to be moved on. That's Hardwick's job now. Sort the wheat from the chaff out of young list and build upon it to take us forward.

By getting older, gaining more experience, increasing our pressure and re-instilling confidence we will 'magically' appear more skillful than what we were without any visible change to the playing list but if you look underneath then the reasons will be plain to see.  Then add in the influence of new gameplans, coaching methods/focus and more highly skilled draftees and that's what I'm basing my opinion on. 

I agree with all that smokey but that takes time if not a few years to implement. Once again I think we differ on the timing more than anything else. I don't see all that starting to come to fruition until at least 2012. 

Here's my take on last year's games:

Carl - 59 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Geel - point in front at 3/4 time - winnable.
Dogs - 21 points down at 3/4 time - winnable.
Melb - lost by 8 points - winnable.
Roos - won by 36 points.
Syd - 15 points down at 3/4 time - winnable.
Bris - 3 points down at 3/4 time - winnable.
Port - 4 points up at 3/4 time - winnable.
Ess - 12 points down at 3/4 time - winnable.
Freo - won by 3 points.
Dogs - 42 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
WC - won by 15 points.
St K - 60 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Adel - 40 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Carl - 31 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
North - 14 points up at 3/4 time - winnable.
Ess - won by 5 points.
Melb - won by 4 points.
Syd - 64 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Coll - 97 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
Haw - 32 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.
WC - 72 points down at 3/4 time - unwinnable.

I make it we were in winnable positions in 8 games not including the 5 wins so just a repeat of last season would see us potentially with up to 13 wins.  No, we won't win them all but we will win some we lost - hence my reason for seeing ladder improvement next season.  And interestingly, of the 9 games that were unwinnable at 3/4 time, 7 of them came in the final 10 rounds, when it was obvious that most, if not all of the coaching group were gone.

The final 10 rounds were when Rawlings was in charge and went down the youth path full-bore. In 2010 we'll be doing the same but not by choice during the season (we've already made the youth choice during this year's trade/draft period).

Also number of those "winnable" games weren't really so at 3/4 time despite the close-ishness of the scoreboard. Against Bullies (round 3), Brisbane and Essendon (dreamtime) we were gone before 3/4 time hence we were blown away in the last quarter.

I agree there will be renewed enthusiasm next year under a new coach ad gameplan and some surprise factor which may score us a couple of wins especially early on the season. But moving forward I'd rather win knowing the opposition were prepared and up and ready to play us rather than win because we were underestimated and not-respected on the day by a better opposition. The latter can be fool's gold which we've fallen for in the past believing we are better than we are.

[big tone]

How about this old wise one- how's about puting your money where your experienced, subjective and balanced big mouth is and have a bet with me, no need to give our money away to Betfair is there. A couple of hundred ok with you? I'll take bottom 4 and you take the rest?

Happy to make it a friendly bet for a lotto ticket between you and I.  I've already wagered what I can afford to on us re: next year's finish.

Also throwing your age around as some kind of importance is childish and pathetic- nobody cares how long you have been alive or even how long you have been watching footy. 

Sadly, there is no substitute for experience in whatever realm of life you wish to deal and using that in conjunction with my research is how I arrived at my opinion - nothing childish or pathetic or unusual in that.  What is childish and pathetic is chucking around opinions with bluster and bravado but zero fact or argument to back it up, then hoping that will impress people.

Keep your lotto ticket smokey, i thought is was a fair bet but no problems. I hope you're right with your thoughts on where we will finish but as i have said, i think it will take a year or two for us to improve enough to win more games than we loose.

[WilliamPowell]

Somewhere between 6th and 12th. 

I tend to agree smokey - I would not be surprised at as see us finishing somewhere between 12th and 8th (6th or 7th I cannot see at all) - solely because we have a new coach. History tells us that's what happens, especially with our "older" players playing for careers

I have said all along that Harwick's biggest test isn't 2010 because nothing much is expected 2011 the dreaded 2nd year will be tougher

And just to make it clear to everyone: what am I expecting  ??? - results wise not very much to be honest - it's less painful 

But at the same time I will not be surprsied at all if we have a reasonable season and win between 8-12 games