2010 Draft Discussion thread [merged]

[Stripes]

Wouldn't you love another Dustin Martin, Lids or Cotchin in the team? These players are not left in the later picks and players such as Barlow are such a remarkable story because they are rediculously rare rather than common place. Great players are very rarely allowed to slip down the draft order these days. Recruiters are too educated and astute to miss too many. Players such as Hodge, N. Riewoldt, Goddard and Cooney are what you build a team around and are the difference between a good team and a great team.

In saying this, I do think you are right to some degree Smokey with your opinion that we could have been given great picks for years now under previous administrations and still gone no where but this has changed now. Look at what we did with our choices last year. We have the recruiters to find talent and, more importantly, the coaches to develop them. If we get a great pick such as 4 then we will be able to develop them to turn into Dusty's right hand man but you can only develop players to reach their potential.

I love to see us win as much as anyone. Can't tell you how excited I was to share the song with my mates, family and little boy the last two weeks but in the end I would rather take the pain now so I can enjoy the rewards of it later when we are streaking up the ladder. A few wins now will not build a winning culture or make our players better, they only make our rebuilding harder.

It is more the extra pick that I want because I think our recuiters we do something with it unlike in the past. Play the whole list, test players in different positions and gauge which players should be with us next year. This year is about building the foundation for future success, not winning at all cost...

Stripes

[mightytiges]

Wouldn't you love another Dustin Martin, Lids or Cotchin in the team? These players are not left in the later picks and players such as Barlow are such a remarkable story because they are rediculously rare rather than common place. Great players are very rarely allowed to slip down the draft order these days. Recruiters are too educated and astute to miss too many. Players such as Hodge, N. Riewoldt, Goddard and Cooney are what you build a team around and are the difference between a good team and a great team.

In saying this, I do think you are right to some degree Smokey with your opinion that we could have been given great picks for years now under previous administrations and still gone no where but this has changed now. Look at what we did with our choices last year. We have the recruiters to find talent and, more importantly, the coaches to develop them. If we get a great pick such as 4 then we will be able to develop them to turn into Dusty's right hand man but you can only develop players to reach their potential.

I love to see us win as much as anyone. Can't tell you how excited I was to share the song with my mates, family and little boy the last two weeks but in the end I would rather take the pain now so I can enjoy the rewards of it later when we are streaking up the ladder. A few wins now will not build a winning culture or make our players better, they only make our rebuilding harder.

It is more the extra pick that I want because I think our recuiters we do something with it unlike in the past. Play the whole list, test players in different positions and gauge which players should be with us next year. This year is about building the foundation for future success, not winning at all cost...

Stripes

Top post Stripes  .

[1965]

That's the reason we are where we are WP. People at the club (in the past i hope) like yourself with short minded thoughts. I enjoyed the feeling too but we need to look at the big picture not the short term rewards.
To say you wouldn't swap a win at the Gabba against a team that has won 1 in 9 games for pick 4 in a comprimised draft is just plain DUMB!!!!! Not to mentention the extra pick at the start of the second round too if we are smart!!!!!
Suck it up Tigers supporters and give the recruiters the best chance to lift this club to where it should be.

Trust me BT the win isn't about how I feel when we win. We win, we win, we lose I don't really care as long as they are competitive.

But for me it is the pride I have when I see these kids achieve something - that's what I wouldn't swap.

For these kids to grow together they need to win together.

And I don't think that it's DUMB. Reckon it's about building something from the ground up and that's what we are doing for the frist time in god knows how long and I am enjoying the ride

And I think long term these kids; winning now is important for their development, confidence and belief.

You shouldn't lose sight of the fact we are winning games with a team of babies and the winning formula is coming predominantly from the babies not the old blokes

Good to hear a voice of reason amongst the dross.

 

[Smokey]

Wouldn't you love another Dustin Martin, Lids or Cotchin in the team? These players are not left in the later picks and players such as Barlow are such a remarkable story because they are rediculously rare rather than common place. Great players are very rarely allowed to slip down the draft order these days. Recruiters are too educated and astute to miss too many. Players such as Hodge, N. Riewoldt, Goddard and Cooney are what you build a team around and are the difference between a good team and a great team.

In saying this, I do think you are right to some degree Smokey with your opinion that we could have been given great picks for years now under previous administrations and still gone no where but this has changed now. Look at what we did with our choices last year. We have the recruiters to find talent and, more importantly, the coaches to develop them. If we get a great pick such as 4 then we will be able to develop them to turn into Dusty's right hand man but you can only develop players to reach their potential.

I love to see us win as much as anyone. Can't tell you how excited I was to share the song with my mates, family and little boy the last two weeks but in the end I would rather take the pain now so I can enjoy the rewards of it later when we are streaking up the ladder. A few wins now will not build a winning culture or make our players better, they only make our rebuilding harder.

It is more the extra pick that I want because I think our recuiters we do something with it unlike in the past. Play the whole list, test players in different positions and gauge which players should be with us next year. This year is about building the foundation for future success, not winning at all cost...

Stripes

You are making the same mistake all pro-tankers make Stripes - thinking that the best picks are only available early.  Here is a comparison of the Top 5 picks of the last 5 years versus those that were taken later in the drafts:

2005
- Top 5 - Marc Murphy, Dale Thomas, Xavier Ellis, Josh Kennedy, Scott Pendlebury.
- Others - Patrick Ryder, Mitchell Clark, Shaun Higgins, Nathan Jones, Shannon Hurn, Grant Birchall, Travis Varcoe, Richard Douglas, Paul Bower, Bernie Vince, Sam Gilbert, Andrew Swallow, Alipate Carlile, Joel Patfull, Clint Bartram, Mathew Stokes.
- Pre-Season - Matt Thomas, Jason Porplyzia.
- Rookie - Mathew Priddis, Stephen Gilham, Ben McGlynn, Kieran Jack.

2006
- Top 5 - Bryce Gibbs, Scott Gumbleton, Lachlan Hansen, Matthew Leuenberger, Travis Boak.
- Others - Joel Selwood, Nathan Brown, James Frawley, Jack Riewoldt, Mitchell Brown, Leroy Jetta, Gavin Urquhart, Brent Renouf, Shane Edwards, Kurt Tippett, Alwyn Davey, Nathan Krakoeur, Josh Kennedy, Tom Hawkins, Karl Reimers, David MacKay, Lindsay Thomas, Robbie Gray, Josh Hill, Tyson Goldsack, Justin Westhoff, Jesse White.
- Pre-season - Ben Ross
- Rookie - Clint Jones, Sharrod Wellingham, Michael Jamison, Jarrod Harbrow, Matt Campbell, Jason Davenport.

2007
Top 5 - Mathew Kreuzer, Trent Cotchin, Chris Masten, Cale Morton, Jarrad Grant.
Others - David Myers, Rhys Palmer, Lachlan Henderson, Patrick Dangerfield, Cryiul Rioli, Brad Ebert, Jack Grimes, Harry Taylor, Callan Ward, Scott Selwood, Tayte Pears, Andy Otten, Brendan Whitecross, Stephen Browne, Scott Thompson, Chris Mayne, James Polkinghorne, Dennis Armfield, Cale Hooker, Craig Bird, Taylor Walker.
Pre-season - Stefan Martin
Rookie - Aaron Joseph, Nathan Grima, Austin Wonaeamirri, Jared Petrenko, Cruize Garlett, Andrew McQualter, Cameron Stokes, Shane Mumford.

2008
Top 5 - Jack Watts, Nic Naitanui, Stephen Hill, Hamish Hartlett, Michael Hurley.
Others - Chris Yarran, Daniel Rich, Ty Vickery, Jack Ziebell, Steele Sidebottom, Ryan Schoenmakers, Tom Swift, Hayden Ballantyne, David Zaharikis, Nicholas Suban, Jack Redden, Dayne Beams, Daniel Hannebery, Jamie Bennell, Mitch Robinson, Todd Banfield, Liam Anthony, Neville Jetta.
Pre-season - Liam Jurrah, Tom Rockliff.
Rookie - Jeff Garlett, Robin Nahas, Zac Dawson, Matthew DeBoer, Liam Picken, Greg Broughton.

2009
Top 5 - Tom Scully, Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin, Anthony Morabito, Ben Cunnington.
Others - Gary Rohan, Brad Sheppard, Jake Melksham, Jordan Gysberts, Lewis Jetta, Ryan Bastinac, David Astbury, Ben Stratton, Ben Nason.
Pre-season - Nil.
Rookie - Michael Barlow, Alwx Silvagni, Brodie Moles, James Podsiadly.

If we had not received any one of those Top 5 picks in any of those 5 years, yet picked astutely with the picks we were given, we could have had a far better side than the one we currently have.  So I will stand by my opinion that getting early picks are not the panacea to a premiership, it is who you pick and how you develop them that matters.  And we can do that at the same time as we work on learning and building a winning culture.  Win, win, win if all those responsible at the club get their collective acts together.

[Stripes]

I agree that it is exciting to see the kids developing and winning together but make no mistake I am certain we do not have all the pieces of the puzzle yet. Have we really kid ourselves into believing that we have enough quality midfielders? Do we look at Jack and say that our forwardline is set for the future? What about our ruck and backline?

Sure we have players developing and coming through all the time but we have equally as many that disappoint and never get there. We need another quality midfielder to work along with Cotchin, Martin and possibly Foley. We need talented outsiders and support players roating though the engine which we just don't have.

What about the forwardline - is Griffiths assured of remaining injury free and making it? What about Astbury - is he a backman or forward? Will Post or Westoff come in? Are our small man stocks sufficent with Taylor, Nahas, Nason and Collins/White?

What I am trying to say is that we still have a huge amount of holes which need to be filled and we need as many quality players on our list pushing for spots as possible because the reality is is that most won't make it. An early pick will almost always assure you of a quality long-term player while the further up the order you are forced, the smaller the chances are. Two players in the 20s would also increase our chances in finding successful players.

I just wish we weren't forced into this position where, being so success-starved, we struggle to see past the short term uphoria of a few meaningless wins instead of enduring the build a bit longer to give us the best chance we have beyond this year.

I doubt we will not win more than 3 but surely people can see beyond the 'team-building' hype and see you need quality materials to work with before you can build anything of exception - that's what early picks are.

Stripes

 

[torch]

Wouldn't you love another Dustin Martin, Lids or Cotchin in the team? These players are not left in the later picks and players such as Barlow are such a remarkable story because they are rediculously rare rather than common place. Great players are very rarely allowed to slip down the draft order these days. Recruiters are too educated and astute to miss too many. Players such as Hodge, N. Riewoldt, Goddard and Cooney are what you build a team around and are the difference between a good team and a great team.

In saying this, I do think you are right to some degree Smokey with your opinion that we could have been given great picks for years now under previous administrations and still gone no where but this has changed now. Look at what we did with our choices last year. We have the recruiters to find talent and, more importantly, the coaches to develop them. If we get a great pick such as 4 then we will be able to develop them to turn into Dusty's right hand man but you can only develop players to reach their potential.

I love to see us win as much as anyone. Can't tell you how excited I was to share the song with my mates, family and little boy the last two weeks but in the end I would rather take the pain now so I can enjoy the rewards of it later when we are streaking up the ladder. A few wins now will not build a winning culture or make our players better, they only make our rebuilding harder.

It is more the extra pick that I want because I think our recuiters we do something with it unlike in the past. Play the whole list, test players in different positions and gauge which players should be with us next year. This year is about building the foundation for future success, not winning at all cost...

Stripes

agree Stripes!

our coaches seem to be doing very well.

Graham --- Lade

Cotchin/Martin --- Campbell

if we have the 4th pick, there is no doubt in my mind that Richmond will draft Andrew Gaff.

you add him with Cotchin and Martin, and you have three players under the age of 21 that will play with each other for over 250 matches!

maybe Collins you could add too

then, add Foley, Jackson, Tuck, Cousins that are your big bodied players that come in and share the work load.

Hardwick said that we need a outside midfielder, why doesn't he use Tambling as this?

i would love to see Deledio in the midfield or half forward line, simply because he is a match winner.

off the half back line, i understand why he is there.

if he can have 33 touches like last week in the midfield or half forward line, we will win more matches easily.

 

[Stripes]

If we had not received any one of those Top 5 picks in any of those 5 years, yet picked astutely with the picks we were given, we could have had a far better side than the one we currently have.  So I will stand by my opinion that getting early picks are not the panacea to a premiership, it is who you pick and how you develop them that matters.  And we can do that at the same time as we work on learning and building a winning culture.  Win, win, win if all those responsible at the club get their collective acts together.

There's no doubt that who you pick is far more important that the pick number itself and, as you yourself have said, regardless of the picks we had over the last half of a decade we probably would have chosen average players at best given the recruiting resources we had. Now though we have invested in better recruits and coaches who know how to develop talent. This is why gaining early picks that can be groomed into excellent structual players has never been more important.

You mentioned a few names from every draft who were chosen later and become good players. Well for every one late draft choice who has been unexpectedly good there would be at least 5 times that many who haven't. In fact the percentages of players drafted who play more than 10 games of AFL football is less than one third of all those taken in the National, PSD and Rookie drafts and even those figures are heavily skewed by players taken in the first round. What does that tell you?

I'm not saying you are garenteed (sp?) a great player with an early pick but the percentages are certainly on your side and with 3 players taken below the 30s this year that would give us a tremendous chance of developing 3 long term players for our club going forward. The further we lift from the bottom this year our first choice order lifts dramatically. Coming second means our first choice becomes 6, normally reserved to the team finishing 11th on the ladder. Finishing 4th from the bottom means the equivalent of finishing in the finals with pick 10. This blows out our later picks too up close to a 3rd round pick in earlier drafts. I just don't think its worth it given the state of our list.

As I have already said I love us win as much as anyone but thinking about it without emotion, managing the team selection and positions to ensure we finish last this year is the responsible and most logical action to take.

Stripes

[Smokey]

I agree that it is exciting to see the kids developing and winning together but make no mistake I am certain we do not have all the pieces of the puzzle yet. Have we really kid ourselves into believing that we have enough quality midfielders? Do we look at Jack and say that our forwardline is set for the future? What about our ruck and backline?

Sure we have players developing and coming through all the time but we have equally as many that disappoint and never get there. We need another quality midfielder to work along with Cotchin, Martin and possibly Foley. We need talented outsiders and support players roating though the engine which we just don't have.

What about the forwardline - is Griffiths assured of remaining injury free and making it? What about Astbury - is he a backman or forward? Will Post or Westoff come in? Are our small man stocks sufficent with Taylor, Nahas, Nason and Collins/White?

What I am trying to say is that we still have a huge amount of holes which need to be filled and we need as many quality players on our list pushing for spots as possible because the reality is is that most won't make it. An early pick will almost always assure you of a quality long-term player while the further up the order you are forced, the smaller the chances are. Two players in the 20s would also increase our chances in finding successful players.

I just wish we weren't forced into this position where, being so success-starved, we struggle to see past the short term uphoria of a few meaningless wins instead of enduring the build a bit longer to give us the best chance we have beyond this year.

I doubt we will not win more than 3 but surely people can see beyond the 'team-building' hype and see you need quality materials to work with before you can build anything of exception - that's what early picks are.

Stripes

Many of us are not struggling to see past the euphoria of a few meaningless wins at all Stripes.  We are seeing the value in playing to win and what winning brings to the development of good young footballers learning the true meaning of 'team'.

And the early picks are no guarantee of being any better quality.  Again, it's who you pick and how you develop them.   So why on earth would you forsake an integral part of your development to chase the rainbow of an early draft pick, when there are more good players who get missed at the top end of the draft than those who get taken?  Surely the list of players taken outside the Top 5 demonstrates that to you?

[Penelope]

Just wondering if any of the match fixing advocates could list which games from the remainder of the year we deliberately lose and how specifically it should be achieved.

[Stripes]

It's all about playing the percentages smokey. There is a much greater chance of securing quality players with early picks why later picks are a lottery. Whether we win one more game or five will not change our culture. It is how we go about things as a club and as a complete list. This year is meant to be about 'transformation', rebuilding and education not about winning. Hardwick needs to find his teams spine, discover who the pretenders and contenders are, figure out where individuals best positions are and ensure that the whole list understands the game plan and team rules not just the 22 on the park at the moment. How can he do this if winning is the first priority?

We can't get blinded by the moment. We need to keep our eye firmly on the big picture and understand that the draft and development remain our number one priority. When everything is firmly in place then and only then should winning become the ultimate goal.

Stripes

[Stripes]

Just wondering if any of the match fixing advocates could list which games from the remainder of the year we deliberately lose and how specifically it should be achieved.

Easy done al. We play our best team against the best teams until we win a game. Against the weaker teams or after we have won a game we experiment with the list. We alternate and rest our better younger players with unproven youth who the club would like to trial such as Browne, Hicks(elevated), Gourdis(elevated) and Roberts. Trial players in different positions to legitimately see which position they would best be suited in or could play in a pinch.

If after all this we still win well then our list is healthier that we thought, we learnt a great deal about our list and its strengths/weaknesses and we have given our young guns time to recuperate so they are fully fit for the preseason and next year when it really matters.

That's my take at least al. Won't happen but it's what I believe would be best for our future both with draft options and list management.

Stripes

[Penelope]

It's all about playing the percentages smokey. There is a much greater chance of securing quality players with early picks why later picks are a lottery. Whether we win one more game or five will not change our culture. It is how we go about things as a club and as a complete list. This year is meant to be about 'transformation', rebuilding and education not about winning. Hardwick needs to find his teams spine, discover who the pretenders and contenders are, figure out where individuals best positions are and ensure that the whole list understands the game plan and team rules not just the 22 on the park at the moment. How can he do this if winning is the first priority?

We can't get blinded by the moment. We need to keep our eye firmly on the big picture and understand that the draft and development remain our number one priority. When everything is firmly in place then and only then should winning become the ultimate goal.

Stripes

This exactly what is happening and has been happening all season stripes. The thing is now that is starting to make us competitive, which means we can win some games.
It is also most probably what will happen for the rest of the season, meaning that we may win a game or two.

Hardwick said that this isnt about winning and so far it hasnt. I dont expect that to change. All wins are a bonus - to the players, the coaches, club and the supporters.

Me, i'll enjoy each and every one, regardless of how many there are, as long I can see that Hardwick is on the right path.

[Stripes]

It's all about playing the percentages smokey. There is a much greater chance of securing quality players with early picks why later picks are a lottery. Whether we win one more game or five will not change our culture. It is how we go about things as a club and as a complete list. This year is meant to be about 'transformation', rebuilding and education not about winning. Hardwick needs to find his teams spine, discover who the pretenders and contenders are, figure out where individuals best positions are and ensure that the whole list understands the game plan and team rules not just the 22 on the park at the moment. How can he do this if winning is the first priority?

We can't get blinded by the moment. We need to keep our eye firmly on the big picture and understand that the draft and development remain our number one priority. When everything is firmly in place then and only then should winning become the ultimate goal.

Stripes

This exactly what is happening and has been happening all season stripes. The thing is now that is starting to make us competitive, which means we can win some games.
It is also most probably what will happen for the rest of the season, meaning that we may win a game or two.

Hardwick said that this isnt about winning and so far it hasnt. I dont expect that to change. All wins are a bonus - to the players, the coaches, club and the supporters.

Me, i'll enjoy each and every one, regardless of how many there are, as long I can see that Hardwick is on the right path.

Fair call al.

[Smokey]

It's all about playing the percentages smokey. There is a much greater chance of securing quality players with early picks why later picks are a lottery. Whether we win one more game or five will not change our culture. It is how we go about things as a club and as a complete list. This year is meant to be about 'transformation', rebuilding and education not about winning. Hardwick needs to find his teams spine, discover who the pretenders and contenders are, figure out where individuals best positions are and ensure that the whole list understands the game plan and team rules not just the 22 on the park at the moment. How can he do this if winning is the first priority?

We can't get blinded by the moment. We need to keep our eye firmly on the big picture and understand that the draft and development remain our number one priority. When everything is firmly in place then and only then should winning become the ultimate goal.

Stripes

The percentages you talk about do not only apply to the order of the draft pick Stripes, that is the single biggest flaw in the tanking theory.  Every piece of the puzzle has it's own cause and effect and if you use all your best endeavors in one area alone - high draft pick via tanking - then you must pay the ferryman at some point, and the trade off of losing games when our kids are trying their guts out but they 'see' their coaches deliberately throwing games by their actions is just not palatable or acceptable to me as a strategy.  I think it has major flaws in an environment where you are going to great lengths to teach and breed success.

Hardwick has spent the whole season so far (re)teaching our team the very basics of football as well as a simplified version of his planned, eventual game plan.  He has tried many players in different positions and with different roles, and he continues to do that now.  Every single week of this season we have seen improvement, small snippets at times and large chunks at other times, but gradual and consistent improvement none the less.  He has not comprised his beliefs, his teachings, or our chances of winning any given game in doing that.  And here we sit with 3 wins from our last 5 games (should have been 4) with our team now learning how to go about winning games of football - the ultimate lesson to be learned.  And Hardwick does not have to deviate from that plan one iota for the rest of the season to have a profound effect on the playing list as a whole.  This season has been a nirvana for them in so many areas and so much has been taken on board because the players have been taught trust and belief.  And now he should be expected to compromise the very fibre of his message to his list?  All for the sake of possibly getting a good player in the draft when he will trust his recruiters to do that anyway, regardless of the pick?  The players are not stupid, they know a tank when it happens and by seeing their coach do that they will subconsciously get the message that less then 100% is acceptable at times.  Do you honestly think Hardwick would be happy with the opportunity for that message to be delivered?

Percentages and blindness are 2 key areas that the tankers get wrong, big time.

[big tone]

It's all about playing the percentages smokey. There is a much greater chance of securing quality players with early picks why later picks are a lottery. Whether we win one more game or five will not change our culture. It is how we go about things as a club and as a complete list. This year is meant to be about 'transformation', rebuilding and education not about winning. Hardwick needs to find his teams spine, discover who the pretenders and contenders are, figure out where individuals best positions are and ensure that the whole list understands the game plan and team rules not just the 22 on the park at the moment. How can he do this if winning is the first priority?

We can't get blinded by the moment. We need to keep our eye firmly on the big picture and understand that the draft and development remain our number one priority. When everything is firmly in place then and only then should winning become the ultimate goal.

Stripes

This exactly what is happening and has been happening all season stripes. The thing is now that is starting to make us competitive, which means we can win some games.
It is also most probably what will happen for the rest of the season, meaning that we may win a game or two.

Hardwick said that this isnt about winning and so far it hasnt. I dont expect that to change. All wins are a bonus - to the players, the coaches, club and the supporters.

Me, i'll enjoy each and every one, regardless of how many there are, as long I can see that Hardwick is on the right path.

Fair call al.

You make way to much sense Stripes. 
And trying to convince people about list management is like bagging your head against a wall. If they cannot see that getting early draft picks gives you the BEST chance to succeed than what is the point of the draft?? It is why it is designed the way it is.