Flag window? Join the queue Jon Ralph
Herald Sun
August 13, 2010 7:53PMIF YOU buy the hard sell from AFL clubs said to be rebuilding, the next decade will be an era of unprecedented success.
Premierships will flow like honey, and supporters will go home happy every week.
Mark down three premierships to Richmond under its plan for "transformation" and a couple of certain flags for Jimmy Stynes' Demons.
Hawks president Jeff Kennett will get the second premiership he demands under his "5-2-50" plan and the Western Bulldogs, Carlton and Collingwood will all hoist the premiership cup.
It is true because the clubs say it is.
Of course, it is all going to end in tears.
Victoria's clubs are selling premiership promises they know they cannot keep.
Premiership droughts will stretch. Five-year plans will come asunder.
The reason? The host of clubs about to open their premiership window from 2012 onwards are only going to run into each other.
Go forward to 2012 and imagine the crowded landscape of all the clubs who believe they are in the premiership "Go Zone".
Melbourne, Richmond, Carlton, North Melbourne and Essendon all believe they will peak about this time.
The Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney will come on quicker than anyone can imagine.
And if Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs are current premiership contenders, they aren't going anywhere any time soon.
That is perhaps the scariest consideration for the bottom-eight clubs, who have made big promises to their fans.
Take the Bulldogs for example.
The loss of Barry Hall and Brad Johnson may hurt within the next two years, but the number of kids the club is stockpiling is scary.
Liam Jones has slotted into Jason Akermanis's forward role in the past fortnight and hasn't missed a beat.
Easton Wood won the game-deciding contest against Adelaide's Kurt Tippett last week, and 19-year-old Jordan Roughead has been keeping Will Minson out of the side.
High picks Ayce Cordy and Christian Howard haven't been sighted because of injury, while midfield father-son combo Mitch Wallis and Tom Liberatore are still to arrive at the club.
No wonder Rodney Eade said this week he was keen to coach on past his existing contract.
Ditto at Collingwood.
Simon Prestigiacomo might retire this year and Shane O'Bree and Tarkyn Lockyer have already been forced to the periphery.
But there is an argument Collingwood won't even peak until 2012.
Consider the room for improvement with Steele Sidebottom and Dayne Beams, in only their second seasons, and Scott Pendlebury (22) and Dale Thomas (23) still babies.
The problem for the current underachievers is that the advent of list managers means quality teams no longer trade away high draft picks to maintain the rage.
Even Geelong, which will have nine or more players 30 or older by 2012, has unearthed kids such as Mitch Brown and tonight's debutant Daniel Menzel.
Premierships have never been harder to win.
The move to 18 sides by 2012 will make it even harder.
Hopefully, those most deserving - Melbourne, St Kilda and the Bulldogs - can break premiership droughts stretching past four decades.
But the clutch of Melbourne teams making room in trophy cabinets in the hope of imminent success might be wise to temper their expectations, both private and public.
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