The future is in their hands November 18, 2010
Emma Quayle, The Age's resident expert on the AFL draft, predicts how tonight's opening round may pan out.2010 AFL NATIONAL DRAFT
Where: Gold Coast Convention Centre
When: 7pm (Melbourne time)
■ Clubs with picks between 1-10 will make their calls in a closed room, and the countdown will begin with those names being announced from 10 down to 1.
■ The draft will then pick up from pick 11 and continue, with a short break at the end of each round.
TV: Fox Sports 2, 7-8.30pm
Radio: SEN
Point of interest: This is the 25th VFL/AFL draft. If 67 first-time draftees are chosen, that will take to 2000 the number of fresh talent ever selected.
1. GOLD COAST - DAVID SWALLOWVital information: 17, from East Fremantle. 185cm, 86kg. A midfielder who, to put it simply, is excellent at everything.
The rationale: He is the best, most complete prospect in the draft. In fact, one of the most ready-made No. 1 picks ever.
Best-laid plans: None. Swallow has already spent this year in the Gold Coast's VFL team, has starred, and deserves the honour.
2. GOLD COAST - HARLEY BENNELLVital information: 18, from Peel Thunder. 185cm, 75kg. Midfield dazzler with great pace and a string of classy tricks.
The rationale: It could well be Sam Day here. I've gone for Bennell seeing as Day decided to nominate only after the under-18 championships, with Bennell already committed and in the club's sights.
Best-laid plans: None. It'll be Swallow, Bennell and Day in the top three spots, the only question is the order.
3. GOLD COAST - SAM DAYVital information: 18, from Sturt. 196cm, 97kg. Big-marking forward prospect with a huge leap and lots of athletic ability
The rationale: An enormous talent, who could have pursued a baseball career but has gone with football instead. The best key-forward prospect in the draft who, happily, fills a need on Gold Coast's young, midfield-filled list.
Best-laid plans: See above. Day could be pick two and Bennell pick three, but the result will be the same.
4. WEST COAST - ANDREW GAFFVital information: 18, from Oakleigh Chargers. 182cm, 78kg. Run-until-hedrops midfielder who is particularly good around the stoppages.
The rationale: The Eagles need to improve in all areas. Gaff will slot straight into their midfield and be a presence from start to finish in a game given his relentless running and mental toughness.
Best-laid plans: Jared Polec is a chance here and, given his brilliant finishing skills, would give the Eagles' midfield a point of difference. Local onballer Reece Conca is another possibility. However, the Gaff-West Coast link has been a lasting one.
5. BRIS LIONS - JARED POLECVital information: 18, from Woodville-West Torrens. 189cm, 80kg. Onballer with brilliant skills on the run.
The rationale: Polec is a super-classy player and one of the better finishers in the draft pool. At this choice, the Lions need to take the best they can get.
Best-laid plans: The Lions were linked to Polec mid-year, then there was a lot of talk about Dyson Heppell, for a very long time.
6. RICHMOND - REECE CONCA
Vital information: 18, 185cm, 79kg. Super-solid midfielder who wins the footy and uses it well.
The rationale: The Tigers are looking to add to their midfield. With Jared Polec gone, Conca is the one linked most heavily to them.
Best-laid plans: Should Polec be there, expect the Tigers to grab him. They will look closely at Dyson Heppell, too.7. GOLD COAST - JOSH CADDYVital information: 18, from Northern Knights. 186cm, 82kg. Bulldozing midfielder who can go forward and mark.
The rationale: The Suns love him and could do with adding one or two more inside midfielders to their young list. Picking here instead of at No. 9 means keeping him from Essendon's clutches.
Best-laid plans: If Caddy is gone - to Richmond, which seems unlikely - expect the Suns to look at another onballer, Dion Prestia.
8. ESSENDON - DION PRESTIAVital information: 18, from the Calder Cannons. 174cm, 82kg. Smart, inside midfielder with a thumping kick.
The rationale: The Bombers love him, and have all year. They need players who can get first hand on the ball in the midfield and kick it well. That's what he does.
Best-laid plans: Shaun Atley is a huge chance, too. Toss of a coin in this one. The Bombers may also look at Dyson Heppell.
9. GOLD COAST - DANIEL GORRINGEVital information: 18, from Norwood. 200cm, 88kg. Competitive, athletic and the best ruckman in it.
The rationale: The best ruckman in the pool. Highly skilful and very agile. Plays like an extra midfielder and can go forward and kick goals. Gold Coast has a few young ruck prospects, but Gorringe will join the already signed
Zac Smith in being the best of them.
Best-laid plans: With three picks in a row, the order could change. Tom Lynch, Reece Conca, Jayden Pitt, Dion Prestia, Seb Tape and Pat McCarthy are others the Suns have looked at.
10. GOLD COAST - TOM LYNCHVital information: 18, from Dandenong Stingrays. 199cm, 91kg. Big, bouncy forward with great endurance who plays like an oversized onballer.
The rationale: Although they have Charlie Dixon and will draft Sam Day, the Suns could use another key tall on their young list.
Best-laid plans: Is he a little too slow? They'd love Dion Prestia, and may look at a second onballer if he is gone.
11. GOLD COAST - JAYDEN PITTVital information: 18, from the Geelong Falcons. 189cm, 70kg. Clever utility with possibly the best kick in the draft.
The rationale: The Suns love the Robert Murphy lookalike, and they'll need to choose him here to make sure Melbourne doesn't snaffle him.
Best-laid plans: Again, the order may change. Gold Coast wants Adelaide defender Seb Tape too, but he's less likely than Pitt or Dion Prestia to get past the Demons.
12. MELBOURNE - DYSON HEPPELLVital information: 18, from Gippsland Power. 189cm, 80. Clean, creative half-back/onballer who plays with urgency and a long left-foot kick.
The rationale: Too good to leave sitting there. The Dees will consider any tall options that fall to them, but Heppell is a top talent. Put him at half-back and send Jack Grimes into the midfield.
Best-laid plans: If Tom Lynch is there, he'll appeal. So will Jack Darling. Midfield options Shaun Atley and Brodie Smith will tempt them.
13. GOLD COAST - SEB TAPEVital information: 18, from Glenelg. 191cm, 81kg. Poised, running defender who is equally creative and calm.
The rationale: The Suns love him, and if you look at their list, the one thing they are light on for is young defenders.
Best-laid plans: Richmond may have grabbed him. In which case, Gold Coast could shuffle its selection order and end up with Reece Conca or Tom Lynch instead.
14. ADELAIDE - JAMIE CRIPPSVital information: 18, from East Fremantle, 183cm, 75kg. Running defender/midfielder who loves taking the game on.
The rationale: The Crows are fans, and looking for the sort of outside pace and clean delivery that Cripps would bring.
Best-laid plans: If Dyson Heppell remains available, is he too good to pass on? Dion Prestia, Ben Jacobs, local Brodie Smith are onballers to have been linked to the Crows. So too Geelong utility Billie Smedts.
15. GEELONG - ISAAC SMITHVital information: 21, from North Ballarat Roosters. 187cm, 77kg.
The rationale: The Cats like him, and adding his zip and creativity would help them keep complementing the inside work of Jimmy Bartel, Joel Corey and co. for a little longer.
Best-laid plans: Billie Smedts, a utility from the Geelong Falcons, is a massive chance here. Should Dyson Heppell slide, the Cats would probably take him.
[
16. PORT ADELAIDE - SHAUN ATLEYVital information: 18, from the Murray Bushrangers. 189cm, 81kg. Adaptable midfielder who wins the ball and can run - quickly - with it.
The rationale: Too good to pass on. Word is the Power is looking to draft a midfielder at this pick, and Atley's a bargain.
Best-laid plans: Another onballer, Luke Parker, may go here should Shaun Atley have been snapped up earlier. There has been plenty of talk linking the club to local ruckman Scott Lycett, too.
17. NORTH MELB - BRODIE SMITHVital information: 18, from Woodville-West Torrens, 189cm, 78kg. Half-back/midfielder who can break with pace from packs.
The rationale: A really safe pick-up here, and a skilful onballer who will slot straight in alongside Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Ryan Bastinac, Levi Greenwood and co. Given it has another pick at the end of the first round, the Roos are in a good position to simply pick the best player available.
Best-laid plans: Another midfield type, Ben Jacobs, is a chance here. Forward Kieran Harper has been linked to the Roos, but he may be there at their next pick.
18. CARLTON - MATTHEW WATSONVital information: 18, from the Calder Cannons. 195cm, 102kg. Strong key backman with an attacking mindset and huge kick.
The rationale: The Blues could do with some young defensive depth. Watson is genuine key-position size and would allow Paul Bower, Marcus Davies and co. to take on second and third opposition forwards.
Best-laid plans: Pat McCarthy will appeal, for similar reasons. Jack Darling will be hugely tempting, if available. Will Scott Lycett tempt them?
19. HAWTHORN - JED LAMBVital information: 18, from Gippsland Power, 181cm, 79kg.
The rationale: Lamb is ultra talented and with the Hawks having lost Carl Petersen and Rhan Hooper from
their forward line - and with Cyril Rioli hopefully spending more time up-field - Lamb fills an obvious vacancy.
Best-laid plans: There has been mail for half-back/midfielders Billie Smedts and Ben Jacobs. The Hawks could also look at tall defender Pat McCarthy, or Matthew Watson if available. Scott Lycett's availability would make things interesting.
20. FREMANTLE - PATRICK McCARTHYVital information: 18, from Glenelg. 196cm, 84kg. Athletic, composed key back who could pinch hit in the ruck.
The rationale: The Dockers' list is young and well-balanced. They can simply take the best option. McCarthy gives them a young key back to start grooming, and he could also end up playing forward.
Best-laid plans: The Dockers should grab Jamie Cripps here, if he's still available. Jack Darling is somewhere
in their plans and North Ballarat forward Lucas Cook is also a chance.
21. SYDNEY - BILLIE SMEDTSVital information: 18, from the Geelong Falcons. 190cm, 76kg. Smart, agile utility who can play all over the ground.
The rationale: He's a very good, versatile player who may have gone much earlier if not for an injury-interrupted season, and who the club has been linked to.
Best-laid plans: Tasmanian onballer Josh Green, a great kick, may be looked at here. Crafty forwards Jed Lamb and Kieran Harper are chances too, if available.
22. W BULLDOGS - MITCH WALLISVital information: 17, from the Calder Cannons. 185cm, 80kg. Inside accumulator with top-notch disposal.
The rationale: The Dogs have already committed to Wallis, the son of former captain Steve, as a father-son pick.
Best-laid plans: It's done and dusted.
23. GEELONG - LUCAS COOKVital information: 18, from the North Ballarat Rebels. 196cm, 81kg. Mobile tall forward who also looks good in defence.
The rationale: Geelong has been linked to Cook, and drafting him would mean adding another athletic option to their forward or back line. SA defender Pat McCarthy is another possibility. Should Billie Smedts get through, the Cats will snaffle him.
Best-laid plans: Ben Jacobs is a chance here as is Pat McCarthy.
24. ST KILDA - CAMERON GUTHRIEVital information: 18, from the Calder Cannons. 186cm, 79kg. Super-diligent and determined onball prospect who can knuckle down to a job like no other in this draft and improved his attacking game this year.
The rationale: The Saints are looking for midfielders, and he is ranked high on their list.
Best-laid plans: St Kilda would love Dion Prestia to be around. They are also quite keen on Tasmanian onballer Josh Green, who could well go here. If Ben Jacobs is still on the board he'll be looked at.
25. BRIS LIONS - SCOTT LYCETTVital information: 18, from Port Adelaide Magpies. 202cm, 98kg. Hugely nimble and athletic ruckman who can also play forward and haul in a mark.
The rationale: Someone, at some point, has to pick this kid. The Lions are looking to stock up their midfield, but if Lycett is available they have either Matthew Leuenberger's long-term ruck partner or a key forward to start grooming for life after Jonathan Brown and Brendan Fevola, having given Lachie Henderson away. Too good to leave sitting there.
Best-laid plans: He may already be gone. The Lions' midfield intentions may lead them to Tasmanian Josh Green or Dandenong Stingray Mitch Hallahan. One or both should be there at their next pick, No. 28.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/the-future-is-in-their-hands-20101117-17xqp.html
