2011 Season Analysis: Snakes & Ladders

[afightingfurydotcom]

I am back with more analysis to get your appetites wet in this pre season lull.  I have compiled a round by round analysis of our ladder position, game results and Dream Team points in a graphical or snake like view!  Furthermore, I have also highlighted our quarter by quarter analysis and to finish off our high and low rankings for the 2011 season.  You can have a look at my post here for the full HTML version.



Snakes & Ladders

As you can see our wins are correlated with our highest Dream Team points which means that if more players are having a good game, rather than a bad one, we will have a better chance of winning games.  Simple as it sounds, in 2011 we relied a lot in a few players to perform and our second tier players did not have an impact.  This is something that has to change in order for us to take the next step in to the top 8.

Note that our 2nd best Dream Team performance came in our loss to the GCS in round 17 which shows that what I said before makes no sense but weŽll take it as a "one off" event that can be explained by the perfect alignment of the planet Uranus with the hyperbola asymptotes of the migrating birds from the north pole to the south pole.....

Quarter by Quarter

Clearly our lack of drive from the 1st bounce had a huge effect in our results and position on the ladder at seasons end.  We played catch up footy in 17 of our 22 games and whether its a fitness or mental issue I think Dimma and his team will be working on this in the pre season.  I believe we should just flood our back line or play "keepings off" until the quarter time siren for the upcoming season!

High Rankings

We were 4th in least opponent disposals per game which means we do not give our opposition the freedom to pass the ball around with ease and play a more man on man game.

We ranked 4th in attendances which shows that we are a FORCE in the AFL and have a huge fan base! It is surprising that we ranked 8th in memberships with such a huge following and we clearly have an enormous untapped member base.  75,000 members for me is not an unrealistic target.

Low Rankings

We ranked 15th in tackles per game and this is due to a lack of strength and aggression which Dimma has tried to fix with our recruiting after last yearŽs season.

Our recruitment of "The Mulet" that is Ivan Maric will help us move from our lowly 14th position in hitouts per game.

Our defensive frailties were evident in our 15th position in points conceded.  The injury to Kel Moore and Dylan Grimes did not help our cause and we should be looking for an improvement this year having both of them back and firing along with the recruitment of the son of Kev and the extra year experience gained by Rancey and the Post man!

 

[Smokey]

Good info aff.com, confirms what most of think doesn't it.

[Dubstep Dookie]

Great stuff.

Amazing we ranked 4th in attendances. Were the three above us Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton?

[afightingfurydotcom]

Hey DD,

Yes you are right!  Here are the stats.  There is a 9,000 average difference between us and 2nd/3rd.  A small gap in my mind.

Team                                       Total            Average
 Collingwood Magpies              1,269,959   57,725
 Essendon Bombers                 1,093,206   49,691
 Carlton Blues                          1,090,169   49,553
Richmond Tigers                    895,291      40,695

[Stripes]

Well done afightingfury! Excellent analysis and very interesting statistics. The last section was the most interesting to me - where we was ranked compared to the opposition. Most of this we know well but one I hadn't heard was that we were 15th in league for tackles. That surprizes me. I understand we are a smaller bodied team at the moment but I thought our endevour had improved sugnificantly in this statistic since the Wallace era (where we were stone cold last!). This is now seen as one of the most important indicators so I hope this is lifted significantly in 2012.

14th in hitouts is no surprize. I  this improves considerably this year with Big Maric and the competition/motivation he has created for the ruck spot with Graham and Browne.Can I ask who was below us in this area?

15th in defence doesn't look like it will improve dramatically this year. Rance will have Grimes and possibly Post to assist with the big forwards and Moore to help shut down the small forwards but we are just too inexperienced and lacking in size/strength at present. With Lids out of the defence we may even bleed further....

Hopefully with our midfield firing ( ) it will help lift the statistics of both ends of the ground. Without a ruck we have always played second fiddle so Maric is the key this year 

[afightingfurydotcom]

Hello Stripes,

Below our poor tackle count is Adelaide and GC.  We are a smaller side but you will be surprised to know that this year we are ranked 2nd in average weight!  I am working on the 2012 now and will have more on this soon.

I agree with your comments re hitouts and backline but if we can have everyone fit and firing in the backline we can only improve.

[Dubstep Dookie]

Hey DD,

Yes you are right!  Here are the stats.  There is a 9,000 average difference between us and 2nd/3rd.  A small gap in my mind.

Team                                       Total            Average
 Collingwood Magpies              1,269,959   57,725
 Essendon Bombers                 1,093,206   49,691
 Carlton Blues                          1,090,169   49,553
Richmond Tigers                    895,291      40,695

Cheers 

[Stripes]

Thanks afightingfury. Perhaps our average weight may be greater due to a larger proportion of taller players we have in the side now? They may way more than the average 6 footer but they are still need to fill out as they mature. We certainly don't have the same percentage of players who are in the older bracket and we don't appear to have a team of tanks so I wonder how this can be? 

[afightingfurydotcom]

Hello Stripes,

You are spot on with your comments and this is something that I am working on now to analyse our list against the other clubs.  We have 6 players who are + 200cm and weigh + 100 kgs (apart from Vickery who weighs in at 95kgs).  I will see how we stack up without taking in to consideration the rucks as they skew the results.  Note that we rank 5th in average height but 16th in average games.  Watch this space.

[Stripes]

Another little interesting fact was that we seemed to only have two run on's last year - Rounds 5 to 9 and then 21 to 23. We only won one game outside those two small purple paths - round 10. When you look at who we were playing it doesn't paint a pretty picture for this year because they were all weak teams in retrospect. Even Essendon who were flying at that stage proved their worth when they got pants in the finals.

This doesn't paint a pretty picture for this year unless we can finally actually win one of those first 5 games this year (Melb reluctantly included  )

[Eat_em_Alive]

Stripes, the melbourne game is a must win.
They won't be easy beats and we can't take them lightly otherwise well have a repeat of our first encounter last year.
What does work in our favour is they are returning from perth the week before.

Beat carlton rd 1!!!
2 of 4 is a great minimum really

[Stripes]

Stripes, the melbourne game is a must win.
They won't be easy beats and we can't take them lightly otherwise well have a repeat of our first encounter last year.
What does work in our favour is they are returning from perth the week before.

Beat carlton rd 1!!!
2 of 4 is a great minimum really

Yes you are correct but I don't rate them in the same category as Carlton. Hawthorn, Geelong or West Coast at this point. We need to beat them but we should beat them too if we have any chance this year.

I would love to snatch the Bluebaggers game too - I'm sick of the let down every year! They are my most hated team 

[Eat_em_Alive]

Totally agree with you that the dees are not in the same league as those clubs.
The reason I wouldn't consider it an easy game is because we have struggled against them for a few years nowi think from memory we have won 1 of the last 5 or 6?
Fwiw I think the dees will only finish mid table.

[Willy]

We can beat Carlton for sure. We would have to play well and they would have to have an off day, but we are definitely a chance. Vickery, Jack and Miller just might stretch their defense a little.

[Eat_em_Alive]

Who replaces king?
Would they be game to elevate mini maric?
If he played well in the next two games and providing he was selected would he be considered?

Would love to trounce a fully fit Carlton mob