The Tigers have landedSimon Morawetz
Back Page Lead
Sunday, 30 April 2012 It can be tough to get a read on a team early in the season. There are simply too many variables in play. Some teams have tougher draws early on, some might have players returning slowly from off-season surgery, while some just need a bit of momentum before they start chugging at full speed.
Who knows what happened to Geelong in 2007, for instance, as they started shakily at 2-3. Whatever it was, they soon shook it off as they lost just one more game on their way to the Premiership.
Similarly, I believe that Richmond’s current ladder position will look nothing like their final one. The Richmond that they have been promising for years has arrived, it’s just being masked by an unfortunate draw.
Sure, they haven’t set the AFL alight just yet – it would be hard to say that about a team at 1-4 – but win-loss ratios only tell part of the story, especially at this early stage.
Consider who the Tigers have played so far: Carlton, Collingwood, Melbourne, Geelong, and West Coast. There’s four of last year’s top five in that.
In the first two rounds, the Tigers matched it with two much more experienced opponents, barring a ten-minute black spot that cost them each match. Against the Blues, it was the last ten minutes of the game. It was the start of the second half against Collingwood.
Then they dutifully destroyed Melbourne, as a lot of teams will do this year. However, it was their last two matches that really impressed me. Against both the Cats and Eagles, they managed to stick with their fancied opponents and either level the scores or pinch the lead late in the piece.
Both of those matches were decided by ten points in the end.
I know that Damien Hardwick says he’s not happy with honourable losses. He’d prefer unforeseen wins. But compared to uncompetitive shellackings, honourable losses start to look a bit nicer. To their credit, that’s what the Tigers have delivered this year.
So the Tigers seem to have turned the corner. After so many years of promise, why have they actually done it this year?
Firstly, they’ve put behind their years of poor drafting. Of their five top-20 picks in 2004, only one is still at the club. Their first three picks in 2005 played a total of 29 games, and have also all left the club.
In more recent years, they have done very well. Players such as Dustin Martin, Reece Conca and Brandon Ellis ooze potential and have the look of players around whom you could build a team. Trading for Stephen Morris and Ivan Maric hasn’t hurt either.
Secondly, the emergence of Tyrone Vickery (another high draft pick) as a ruck-forward has been crucial. Gone are the days of the one-dimensional Tiger forwardline. The inclusion of Brad Miller has been handy, too. The only thing missing is the improvement that Jack Riewoldt should show from the increased avenues to goal. Having more options should allow Riewoldt to capitalise on his freedom from double-teaming by key defenders.
As it is, though, he has been disappointing. He has taken 19 marks and kicked just eight goals from the first five matches. That said, that the Tigers have lifted while their spearhead has slumped only makes their rise more impressive.
And thirdly, they have managed to stay largely injury-free. I don’t need to talk for too long about the important of having players like Shane Tuck, Trent Cotchin, and Nathan Foley available every week. It's having these sorts of players available that's led to the Tigers being able to play fierce, contested footy.
They may have won just one of their first five matches, but there’s no way they should give up on the finals. We saw St Kilda reach the finals with just six points from seven games last year. Hawthorn did it with four points from seven games the year before.
Playing the way they play, they will beat a few teams this year. Perhaps not Carlton and Geelong, but they’ll win a fair few. What they need is to string some of those wins together.
Ahead of them, the Tigers have Port Adelaide, Sydney (MCG), Essendon, and Hawthorn. On their day, I reckon the Tigers could win any of those. And the more they win, the more they’ll keep winning.
Of course, I could be wrong. They could lose those matches and slump to 1-9. We don’t know. That’s the beauty of footy, and sport in general.
What I do know is this: had the Tigers been dealt a kinder draw to start the year, we’d be talking about them in a different light by now.
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