The AFL website is tipping the Saints
Preview: St Kilda v RichmondBy Luke Holmesby and Paul Daffey
Tue 29 May, 2012WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Friday June 1, 7.50pm
LAST TIME: Richmond 13.17 (95) drew with St Kilda 14.11 (95), round two, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Both these teams are starting to be taken seriously by the football world after impressive wins last week. The Tigers had shown plenty of promise before recent wins over the Swans and Hawks gave weight to their finals aspirations.
Richmond is looking solid all around the ground and is playing with an intensity and competitiveness that Damien Hardwick has worked hard to instill. The Saints are also showing signs that their coach's message is getting through. It is a far different team under Scott Watters than we have seen before and St Kilda is playing with a flair that has not been evident in recent seasons.
THE FOUR POINTS
ST KILDA1. The Saints haven't lost to Richmond since April, 2003 but that streak counts for little, as these are two different teams to what we have become accustomed to seeing. The Saints came close to dropping the previous encounter against the Tigers and know they are coming up against a Richmond team with more self-belief and form than at any time in the past decade.
2. St Kilda's VFL team Sandringham didn't play last week but the Saints have a few contenders pushing for senior selection. The highest profile of these is Adam Schneider, who is yet to play a senior match this year after battling a hamstring injury. How he fits in to a forward line that already has Stephen Milne, Ahmed Saad and Terry Milera is a predicament for the selection committee.
3. Sam Gilbert was one of his team's best players over the Grand Final years of 2009 and 2010 but he has been inconsistent ever since. His disposal can be a bit wayward and he has appeared indecisive at times when gathering the ball - both of which are signs that his confidence levels are low. Whether the Saints choose to try him up the ground, give him a stint with Sandringham or persevere with him in the back half remains to be seen.
4. The Saints come into this game on the back of their third consecutive six-day break. Clubs find it difficult to manage one shortened break but three in a row is testing. St Kilda faded towards the end of last week's win over the Swans and might be starting to get a bit weary.
RICHMOND1. The fact that this match is billed as the biggest game of the round is an overdue development, as the two clubs have rarely played big matches against each other. Their history includes only three finals: the 1939 first semi-final (won by St Kilda), the 1971 preliminary final (St Kilda) and the 1973 first semi-final (Richmond). The form and prospects of both teams suggest a healthy rivalry could yet develop.
2. Not so long ago, Hardwick wondered whether Alex Rance would make it as an AFL footballer. But now Rance has developed into one of the best defenders in the game. The 21-year-old has had an average of 21 disposals a match, the second most of a key defender behind only Fremantle's Michael Johnson. Last Saturday he blanketed Hawthorn star Lance Franklin in a performance that made the football world realise what Richmond fans have known for a while.
3. Rance's preference to play on the last line of defence means he's likely to play on Justin Koschitzke. The job on Nick Riewoldt, therefore, is likely to fall to Ben Griffths, who last week played his first AFL game of the season. The Richmond hierarchy has high hopes for the athletic Griffiths. The scalp of Riewoldt would validate those hopes.
4. St Kilda, with its ruck problems, has picked the wrong time to run into the Richmond juggernaut, Ivan Maric. Maric's competitiveness has been one of the main reasons behind Richmond's rise from one of the worst clearance teams in 2011 to one of the best. Last week, against Hawthorn, he played his best game of his short tenure at Punt Rd, with his marking a notable feature. The Saints' makeshift ruckman, Jason Blake, has a large job ahead of him.
AFL.com.au prediction: St Kilda by 14 pointshttp://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/137194/default.aspx
