AFL website is tipping us by 5 points
Preview: Carlton v RichmondBy Jason Phelan and Paul Daffey
afl.com.au
Tue 24 Jul, 2012 WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday July 28, 7.40pm
LAST TIME: Carlton 18.17 (125) d Richmond 12.9 (81), round one, 2012 at the MCG
Carlton is still fighting to scrape into the eight after a gutsy win against the Western Bulldogs, but Richmond is an unlikely September participant after two heart-breaking losses to Gold Coast and North Melbourne. The fortunes of both clubs have dipped since they met back in round one when the Blues still had top-four aspirations and the Tigers were confident of a return to the finals.
THE FOUR POINTS
CARLTON1. The Blues were looking down the barrel at 25 points down late in the second quarter against the Dogs, but ultimately kept their season alive with an 18-point win. The challenge for Brett Ratten's men is to reproduce that effort, which has been a problem for them for much of the year.
2. Carlton's lengthy injury list has been a key factor in the club's battles this season, but it could shorten considerably ahead of this clash. Mitch Robinson was a late withdrawal last week with calf tightness and will undergo a test along with Matthew Kreuzer (hip), Kane Lucas (hamstring) and Zach Tuohy (back).
3. Ratten was forced to play three debutants - Levi Casboult, Frazer Dale and Tom Bell - last week and all did enough to be considered for selection against the Tigers. The coach all but guaranteed tough inside mid Bell will get another go and Casboult, while horribly mismatched in the ruck, showed enough up forward to suggest he could be worth persevering with in the absence of Jarrad Waite.
4. Marc Murphy was named as skipper in place of the suspended Chris Judd and he led a midfield group against the Dogs that appeared to be on the cusp of regaining some lost momentum. Rob Warnock's return will help Murphy and co. get first use of the ball, and with Murphy and Andrew Carrazzo now regaining peak fitness after long-term injuries, the Blues' onball brigade could be the difference here despite the continued absence of Judd.
RICHMOND1. The Tigers' recent record against Carlton is deplorable, with the Blues winning all seven games since the Tigers' victory in round one, 2008. There have been some sizeable margins, too, including the Blues 103-point victory in round 15 last season. In the opening round this season the Blues inflicted on the Tigers their biggest loss for the season, by 44 points. Notwithstanding the fact that Richmond must win to keep alive its finals hopes, there's plenty for the Tigers to play for.
2. Full-back Alex Rance was deemed to have lost his duel with North Melbourne's Drew Petrie last week after Petrie kicked seven goals, including five in the last quarter. But those figures do Rance an injustice. The 21-year-old was superb in holding Petrie for three quarters. It might sound odd given Petrie's last-quarter heroics, but Rance would be keen to take his form from the North Melbourne match into the match against Carlton.
3. Another Richmond defender, Steven Morris, was in fine form against North Melbourne last week. Morris had a career-high 23 disposals, and once again he split packs with his trademark attack on the ball, but it was his run and carry that was truly eye-catching. The 23-year-old's task this week will be to quell either Eddie Betts or Jeff Garlett.
4. Full-forward Jack Riewoldt was equal parts inspiring and frustrating against the Roos. He was superb when he led and took the ball out in front, but he was infuriating when he tried to wrestle his opponent, Scott Thompson - a ploy that generally ended with Thompson thumping the ball out of danger. Riewoldt is likely to have few better chances to kick a bag than he does against the Blues' undermanned defence.
AFL.com.au prediction: Richmond by five pointshttp://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default.aspx?newsid=142514&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+com%2FbGgr+%28AFL+Latest+News+and+Broadband%29
