Nearly out, but not down Rohan Connolly
The Age
July 28, 2012 IF YOU ever need a tangible example of how fine a line there is between success and perceived failure in modern football, Richmond in 2012 has provided it.
The Tigers still have a minor chance of making this year's finals, though a loss to Carlton tonight at the MCG will all but kill those hopes. And the biggest task then for their massive supporter base would be to refrain from the temptation to dwell on an obvious question. What if?
Richmond's heaviest loss all year came in the season opener against the Blues by 44 points. It has lost another eight since. But none by more than 21 points, the last two heartbreaking defeats to Gold Coast and North Melbourne by a total of just six. And in those two defeats, plus the previous one at the hands of Adelaide, it led at three-quarter-time.
Just 43 more points across five of the narrowest of the losses, and Richmond would now be sitting with a 12-4 win-loss record instead of 7-9 — one win short of top spot. In the past costly fortnight, it's just a fraction more coolness in the final 60 seconds in Cairns, or perhaps not giving away a couple of silly 50-metre penalties at the MCG last Sunday.
“It's the sliding doors theory, really,” Richmond coach Damien Hardwick pondered to The Saturday Age yesterday. “The ball bounces one way instead of the other, and that can determine whether you win the game.
“There are certain critical contests. That was emphasised last week. [North Melbourne's Andrew] Swallow has the ball in the back-pocket, we have two guys [Shane Tuck and Robin Nahas] coming in to tackle who bump into each other, Swallow breaks the tackle and they go end-to-end with a handball chain, which very rarely happens, and kick effectively the match-winning goal.”
But those who go looking for a recurring theme in the losses, a fundamental psychological or structural flaw that has prevented the Tigers turning narrow defeat into victory, are going to be disappointed. Richmond is simply a classic case of a young side on the improve, the bridge from also-ran to contender, almost but not quite crossed. Not yet, anyway.
While the football world hates dealing in shades of grey rather than absolutes, and the Tiger army ponders the 30th anniversary of the club's last appearance in a grand final, Hardwick should have an easier job selling hope to the masses next summer, whatever happens tonight or over the next month or so.
Because while the ladder might not be telling a story supporters want to hear, the vast bulk of other indicators are. And only the most superficial or pessimistic Tigers can fail to see them.
“The wheel is turning,” Hardwick says confidently. “Richmond people probably hate hearing it, but we've got to be patient. We're improving at a rate that is very steady, but progression is definitely upwards.
“We're actually playing, for our demographic [on a weekly basis in age terms younger than all bar the two start-up teams], some bloody good football at stages. Would we like to have more wins? Would we like to be in the eight? Of course we would, and we've still got a lot of work to do. But our time will come, this year, or next year, our time will come.”
Hardwick has plenty of solid evidence to back him up. Even in black-and-white terms, the upside of the ledger is considerable. There's a win over top team Sydney — the 29-point margin is the most the Swans have lost by all season. There was a 10-goal belting of premiership favourite Hawthorn. And a thrilling eight-point win over St Kilda in one of the highest-standard games of the year.
There's also a catalogue of statistics that underline a gradual but steady progression at Punt Road. In sales terms, they're not nearly as sexy, but they can't be ignored.
Richmond's consistent competitiveness in 2012 is reflected in its percentage of 106, healthy for a side that has won fewer games than it's lost, and 20 per cent more than last year. Or the 30 quarters won this season compared to 23 to the same stage in 2011.
Then there's the issues that have been identified, addressed and worked on assiduously even through the course of this season. After the first two losses to the Blues and Collingwood, Richmond was rightly concerned about some continuing downward trends in the key areas of contested possession and stoppages.
The Tigers ranked a lowly 15th for contested ball differentials in 2010. That stayed the same last year, and after round two this season had slipped even further to 17th. That ranking is now second, the first two losses the only times all season they've lost the contested ball count. Richmond had slumped from fifth on the clearance differentials in 2010 to 16th last season, and after two games in 2012, was stone motherless last. Now it's sixth.
“That's just about hard work,” says Hardwick. “Danny Daly and Brendon Lade (midfield coaches) have really worked on our strategies in the set-ups. You know, most sides in the competition have had two midfield coaches for years. This is the first time we've had the luxury, and it's no coincidence the tide has started to turn.”
Richmond ranks No.?1 for uncontested possession differentials, too, a clear sign that is capable of playing the game on its own terms, the count lost just once, in the opening game against Carlton. The Tigers rank fifth for inside 50s, and fourth for inside 50s conceded.
It's a pretty decent set of numbers. So what are the glitches? Converting those scoring opportunities to goals is one, the Tigers' inaccuracy an on-going bugbear, and conversely, preventing more opposition entries from being turned into goals.
“We haven't kicked well for goal, and that's hurt, and we've struggled with cleanliness of our ball movement inside 50,” says the coach. “When the ball gets inside our defensive 50, they tend to score, and the defence can break down in a couple of chains and you get goals kicked from the square, but we've tried to reduce that on a week-to-week basis.”
Again, the numbers show that in only four games this season has Richmond's opponent had more scoring shots, and in three of those, only one or two more. The scoreboard, like the ladder, isn't a major restructure away from looking a lot more positive, only a matter of degrees.
And those incremental changes can creep up on you. Take Richmond's list, which over the course of Hardwick's tenure has had a major revamp. Of the 45 on it when he arrived at the end of 2009, only 19 remain.
Buys from other clubs who have paid off have made a bigger difference than perhaps even the Tigers had hoped. Ivan Maric is this year's classic case, but there's also older recruit Steven Morris and, before that pair, Shaun Grigg and Bachar Houli. Of the established core, Trent Cotchin has gone to another level, as has Brett Deledio, the latter routinely marked hard over the years, but wearing a lot less scepticism now if not attracting the same headlines with a tremendously consistent year in midfield.
The novelty factor has well and truly worn off with Jack Riewoldt, yet for the criticism he also regularly fields, he sits second on the AFL goalkicking table to Lance Franklin with 47 goals at an average of three a game. Perhaps he is symptomatic of the perceptions and expectations of his team as a whole now.
“Richmond supporters now come to a game expecting to win, and we're no different to that, either,” says Hardwick. “Last year, it was probably more 'Gee, I hope we get over the line'. There's a resolve now that we're going to get the result.”
And measured purely in those terms, particularly if the Tigers go down today in a game against a nemesis that this time they're favoured to beat, 2012 won't be smiled on by the sceptics.
Hardwick adds: “But the fact is, like getting in the top four to shoot for a flag, you've got to put yourself in a position to win games. And the next stage of our development is winning those games.”
No one could argue Richmond hasn't at least come through on the former count this season. And as for the latter, the Tigers' trail of “missed it by that much” results, while producing the inevitable “ifs” and “buts”, should be evidence enough that they're close to delivering the second end of the bargain as well.
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