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Preview: Brisbane Lions v Richmond
Richmond has won the past four games against the Lions at the Gabba. Can it break its three-game losing streak on Saturday?By Michael Whiting and Paul Daffey
31/07/2012 8:35 PMWHERE AND WHEN: The Gabba, Saturday August 4, 7.40pm
LAST TIME: Richmond 18.17 (125) d Brisbane Lions 14.10 (94), round 13, 2011, at the Gabba
Both teams are out of the finals race and both are coming off disappointing losses, but Saturday night's Lions-Tigers match has the ingredients of a ripper. The Lions let themselves down with a 98-point thrashing from West Coast on Sunday but have had a solid past six weeks, while for the third week in a row the luckless Tigers lost by less than a kick against Carlton. Both have exciting young talent (Rich, Redden and Rockliff against Cotchin, Martin and Deledio) and both have spearheads (Brown and Riewoldt) that can tear any game apart. Just who wants to fight more with their finals chances dashed may prove the difference.
THE FOUR POINTS
Brisbane Lions1. Last week captain Jonathan Brown said the Lions could not let their season peter out or it would carry over into 2013. Following a lacklustre win over Gold Coast and sub-par performance against West Coast, they risk doing exactly that with another poor showing against the Tigers. Brown wanted 10 wins for the season - and that must include Saturday night.
2. In both wins over the Lions last year, the Tigers midfield ran riot. Although Nathan Foley and Trent Cotchin topped the disposal tally in the 26 and 31-point victories respectively, it was Dustin Martin who cut the Lions to shreds. He had 35 touches in the first win and a game-changing 22 and five goals in the second. Watch for former Tiger Andrew Raines to run with the robust Martin, despite the silky Cotchin having a better season.
3. Midfielder Jack Redden seems to continually slip under the radar. While his young teammates Daniel Rich and Tom Rockliff steal the headlines, Redden is the midfield glue teams need week in and week out. He has averaged 25 touches a game this season and is top-10 in the League for tackles. In a badly beaten team against the Eagles, the 21-year-old excelled, with 28 disposals, and game highs in both contested possessions (17) and clearances (11).
4. The Lions have simply not given their forwards enough chances to kick winning scores in the past four weeks. Despite getting enough ball (down by an average of just 10 disposals a match against the opposition), they have gone inside 50 a paltry 45 times a match. It's hard to kick enough goals when the ball is not getting down there.
Richmond1. Surely, Richmond can't lose four games in a row by less than a goal but then again, nothing is impossible when you're talking about the drama kings of Punt Road. After their losses to Gold Coast (two points), North Melbourne (four) and Carlton (four), the Tigers will pull out every stop possible to ensure there's no repeat against the Lions. The danger is that the Tigers' fear of further ignominy will prompt a tentative, safety-first approach when boldness is what is needed if they're to come away with a win.
2. If you live in Victoria, you'd have no idea that Richmond is not facing a bottom-dweller, as Victorians don't consider the Lions a team on level footing. But, Victorians, both teams are on seven wins. Besides geographic considerations, the Tigers are higher in estimations in southern thinking because they've been spoken of in terms of the finals whereas the Lions have never been afforded such praise. This match will provide a good guide as to whether Victorians should cast their gaze a little north sometimes.
3. Pity the poor Lions full-back. Or maybe he's in for an easy week. Richmond full-forward Jack Riewoldt failed to kick a goal against Carlton, bringing forth much comment about his frustrating ways. Commentators of no lesser standing than Mick Malthouse implored him to stop wrestling and start leading — and it seems Mick and others have a point. Riewoldt is more productive when he's sprinting out of the goalsquare rather than remaining rooted to it. He needs to find his wheels again.
4. The Gabba holds no fears for the Tigers going on their record at the ground since their first encounter with a Brisbane club, in this case the Bears, in 1993. Since then, Richmond has won eight games and the Bears/Lions have won seven. The most impressive aspect for the Tigers is that they've won the past four matches against the Lions at the Gabba: in 2005 by four points, 2006 (14 points), 2010 (19 points) and 2011 (31 points).
AFL.com.au prediction: Richmond by 10 pointswww.afl.com.au/tabid/16931/Default.aspx#fixtureid=7817&tab=Preview
