The AFL website is tipping us by 7 goals
Preview: Richmond v Western BulldogsBy Paul Daffey and Ben Collins
Tue 07 Aug, 2012WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Sunday August 12, 3.15pm
LAST TIME: Western Bulldogs 23.15 (153) d Richmond 18.10 (118) in round eight, 2011, at Etihad Stadium
Richmond is 12th and the Bulldogs are 15th but their current fortunes indicate a wider gap than their ladder positions suggest. Richmond was in finals contention before suffering three losses by less than a goal and then comfortably defeating the Brisbane Lions last weekend. The Bulldogs, after a promising start to the season, have lost their past seven games by a whopping average of nine goals. Their decline has become precipitous.
Four Points
Richmond1. It's been a long time between drinks for the Tigers against the Dogs. Their last win against the Westerners was in round three, 2005, at Etihad Stadium. Their last win over the Bulldogs at the MCG was in round eight, 2004. It should be noted that that last win at the MCG was in a wooden-spoon year for the Tigers. Those days seem long gone.
2. Midfielder Trent Cotchin has been clearly Richmond's best player this season. It would not surprise at the 2012 best-and-fairest count that he's polled votes in every match. Cotchin has also been one of the best in the competition, as shown by his position on top of the table for the coaches' votes. Cotchin has 83 votes, one more than Essendon's Jobe Watson. Against the struggling Bulldogs, he's in a good position to poll further votes and maintain his lead.
3. An indictment on these two clubs is the fact that they've never played in a finals match — not once in all the years since the Bulldogs entered the VFL in 1925. The closest they've come was in 1942, '44 and '74, when both made the finals but their paths never crossed. The Bulldogs have played consistently in the finals only over the past 20 years. Richmond's fortunes have been dire in those 20 years. The fortunes of the two clubs this season suggest that a potential final between the two clubs is a long way off.
4. Luke McGuane and Matt White looked to be on the scrapheap midway through the season. They're both 25, and they were struggling to break through for a senior game. Their performances, however, during last week's win over the Brisbane Lions give them hope that they'll retain their spots on the list. McGuane kicked three goals and had 10 disposals in a fruitful match-up forward, while White had 16 disposals and kicked a goal in his customary role as a running utility. The Bulldogs match presents a golden opportunity to impress.
Western Bulldogs1. The loss of Tom Liberatore for the rest of the season (after police found him intoxicated and in possession of illicit drugs) robs the Bulldogs of another quality hard-ball winner, following the season-ending injury to Daniel Cross the previous week. It's also the second unsavoury incident to befall the club in as many months, following the Will Minson sledging controversy. They haven't won a game since the Minson incident.
2. It seems the Dogs' only chance of winning is if they build a significant lead by half-time, because their second halves have been abysmal. In their past seven games - each of them losses - they have been outscored after half-time by a staggering 49 goals (69.40 to just 20.38).
3. There is some light at the end of the tunnel for the Bulldogs. Their pups can play. They have blooded six players this season and last week's debutants - 19-year-old pair Jason Johannisen and Michael Talia - showed the potential to be long-term members of the side. Another impressive first-year player was Daniel Pearce, also 19, who produced the best of his five games.
4. The Scraggers' main attack dog Liam Picken continues to take big scalps, just as he did with the Roos' Daniel Wells last week, and will surely get the job on Trent Cotchin. Or perhaps he'll split his time between Cotchin and Dustin Martin as they alternate in the midfield. Either way, the Tiger stars will be in for a tough time of it when opposed to the tough Picken.
AFL.com.au prediction: Richmond by 42 pointshttp://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/143842/default.aspx
