A long read but very informative and insightful.Stats special: After years of delays and cancellations, Tiger train on right track for sustained successFox Footy Analyst
From: FOX SPORTS
September 06, 2013 12:40PM MELBOURNE has a shocking public transport system, we all know that.
But while the Tiger Train has been derailed time and time again, the Richmond Football Club itself is the only one to blame. They even had a documentary made earlier this year by Fox Footy highlighting just how it had all gone wrong.
With a finals record worse than now-defunct Fitzroy over the past 30 years, fans of one of the competition’s former powerhouses have waited a long time for success. At last, it seems to have arrived.
On Sunday, Richmond will play in its first final in 12 years. In Damien Hardwick’s fourth year at the helm, the Tiger Train has reached a pivotal stop.
Perhaps the Tigers were always destined to arrive here in 2013 considering the age profile of their list, off-season acquisitions in recent years and a good run with injuries.
Their average losing margin last year of 15 points suggested they weren’t far off. When they received a favourable 2013 draw compared to the sides around them, expectations rose.
Looking at where the Tigers are now in relation to where they have come from is too generous, as we all know how bad the past has been. You could argue they are now where they should be after so long down and with access to a raft of early draft picks.
But there’s more to the Tigers’ rise than that. They are finally playing a brand that improves chances of success when it matters most, valuing team over individual, consistency over flair and predictability over instinct.
Put simply, the way the Tigers are playing should hold up in finals.
Whether they are good enough yet is a different question, but for now the changes they’ve made has them well placed for an extended stay near the top.
WHAT WAS WRONGThe good teams identify the aspects of their own game that are being exploited by the opposition and make alterations. For Richmond in 2013, that happened after three losses in a row in Rounds 4- 6.
The Tigers were too attacking with ball in hand and weren’t valuing defence enough across the board.
This was the game plan crafted over Hardwick’s first three years, with improving results. But it was clearly too flaky.
The Tigers’ mentality geared towards all-out attack increases the randomness of results, hence the amount of close losses in 2012.
North Melbourne this year are in a similar position; players with a lack of defensive mindset unable to play slow or take control when the pressure rises, particularly late in games.
The Tigers had become too reliant on star power to get them over the line. Their best wins were on the back of individual brilliance from Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt. They could beat anyone on their day, but could also turn in a shock loss to a team they should beat.
They moved the ball in a manner that didn’t help the defence at all. They were continually punished for turnovers in dangerous positions made by players instructed to take the game on without the required skill level to execute.
The turning point came in Round 6 when Richmond conceded 10 goals to Geelong from defensive-half turnovers. In three consecutive losses to Collingwood, Fremantle and the Cats, the Tigers gave up 24 goals from turnovers in the back half, clearly the worst record in the AFL.
Below is a heat map of their turnovers punished by the opposition from Rounds 4-6, with an unhealthy 68 per cent of those being behind centre.
Turnovers punished R4-6. Source: FoxSportsCulprits included Bachar Houli, Shaun Grigg and Alex Rance, all players regularly guilty for trying for too much with their kicks in dangerous areas.
The game plan wasn’t holding up against the better teams, and had to be tinkered with for them to take the next step.
THE CHANGESlowly but surely, things have changed.
As with any game plan alterations, it takes time for players to adjust. That period seems to have occurred from Rounds 7-9.
In Round 9 the Tigers went completely into their shells and were belted by Essendon. Hardwick said post-game the players may have over-corrected. Clearly that was the case.
Since then they have continued to evolve and improve, losing only three games – to North Melbourne, Sydney and Carlton – and generally playing a more consistent and defensive-minded style. They are more predictable and patient when they have the ball and work harder without it to win it back.
They no longer rely on individual brilliance, instead building their wins around role players, something they haven’t had to this extent before.
This was highlighted by the fact no Tigers made the All-Australian squad of 40, named earlier this week.
The clearest change in what the Tigers are doing is in the way they are moving the ball. Previously a team that wanted to attack with run and hands through the corridor from the back half, the Tigers now play safe.
In the opening six rounds of the season, 35 per cent of the Tigers' midfield ball movement was through the centre square, more than any other team. Below is a heat map of their possessions (excluding centre bounces) in that time.
possession ex CB R1-6. Source: FoxSportsSince things started to take shape with the new style in Round 10, this figure has dropped significantly to 25 per cent, ranked 16th (above only Carlton and St. Kilda). That is quite a significant change mid-season, as highlighted by the below heat map.
Possession ex CB R10-23. Source: FoxSportsTheir kick-to-handball ratio has risen from ninth to second as they prefer to hold onto the ball by foot rather than take a more aggressive and risky path to goal, as they may have previously.
The Tigers rank second in the AFL for time in possession since Round 10, and while they still try to move the ball quickly when the opportunity arises, they value retaining the ball much more, especially when held up.
The horrible howlers in the back half that happened far too often in previous seasons and early in 2013 have been wiped from the Richmond DNA. The same team that conceded 24 goals from defensive-half turnovers in three weeks from Round 4-6 has given up just 36 in 13 games since Round 10 – the fewest in the AFL.
Troy Chaplin’s calming influence in the back half cannot be understated. Coming across from Port Adelaide as a free agent at the end of last season, Chaplin is structurally one of Richmond’s most important players.
He has been influential in the shift in mindset as he has always been one of the safest users of the ball in the competition. His decision-making down back has clearly rubbed off on his teammates. He rarely pulls the trigger on low-percentage kicks, instead often being involved in chains that slow play down and give the Tigers control of the ball, something they never did previously.
FLAIR FACTORThe Tigers still have flair and individual brilliance, they just don’t rely on it as much.
Their most naturally gifted player, Brett Deledio, cops a hard tag nearly every week and his influence this year has been down as a result. Yet he has found a way in most games to do things that help the team that don’t necessarily involve him getting the ball, something he hadn’t done before.
Deledio is averaging his fewest disposals since 2007 but despite his offensive output being down, the Tigers can now win without him dominating.
The fact opposing teams still see negating him as a priority reflects how dangerous he is when off the leash as well as the fact that he has previously never handled close attention well.
The benefits of Deledio taking the tag are being felt elsewhere, starting with Dustin Martin. In his fourth season at AFL level, Martin is fast approaching his peak and being afforded freedom allows him to give the team spark, generally forward of centre.
He is one of the few Tigers who still takes the game on and seems to have the blessing of his coaches to play on instinct.
His ability to change angles with the ball in hand opens up the ground and while it can be quite daring at times, at the moment the reward is outweighing the risk.
While his turnovers have cost the Tigers a club-high 46 points since Round 10, 127 of his 325 disposals (39 per cent) in that time have ended in a Richmond score, ranking him second in the AFL behind Dane Swan.
Martin has become one of the competition’s best in offensive spread, similar to Swan in his ability to gather multiple possessions in one chain. He ranks fifth in the AFL for uncontested possessions (Swan is No.1). He wants the ball in his hands and so do the Tigers.
Spending more time forward this year, he has hit the scoreboard yet also averaged a career-high 24.5 disposals. His tally of 53 scoring shots this year is the most of the AFL’s top-50 ball-winners.
LESS ATTACK THROUGH JACKVery rarely do the good teams have only one target inside 50 and this has been one of Richmond’s main problems in the past. The shift in the Tigers’ mentality this year has meant less reliance on Riewoldt.
The results speak for themselves.
Of Richmond’s targeted entries in 2010-12, more than 40 per cent went to Riewoldt. He picked up a couple of Coleman Medals (2010 and 2012) but the Tigers won only a third of their games.
This year it’s a different story, as only 29 per cent of the Tigers’ entries go through him. His bag of four goals against Fremantle in Round 17 is his only haul of more than three in the past 16 weeks.
As the forwards have become accustomed to the more patient and predictable ball use, they are working more as a group to create space and isolate inside the attacking 50, making it harder for opposition defences to know where they are going.
The predictability in the past meant that Riewoldt was often flying against multiple defenders, yet the Tigers would still kick to him. He retained fewer than 40 per cent of the entries directed to him in 2010-12.
This year he has retained 47 per cent, often with smarter choices made up the field to use him only when it’s the right option. He is more selfless than in the past, often drawing his opponent out of the play to create space behind him. He has won more midfield possessions this year than ever before and ranks equal No.1 in the AFL for goal assists.
It’s not about who kicks the Tigers' goals any more, as long as they get kicked. It’s a dramatic shift and is a large reason he will play in his first final on Sunday.
As part of a more defensive mindset across the board, the Tigers’ entries inside 50 are also less attacking. Since Round 10 their kicks inside 50 land closer to the boundary than any other team.
As evident in the below heat map, the Tigers almost refuse to kick the ball to the area 35-50m from goal in the corridor. Only 13 per cent of their entries land in this part of the ground (lowest in the AFL), with a league-high 70 per cent landing out wide.
inside 50 targets R10-23. Source: FoxSportsThese entry patterns decrease their chance of direct scores but increase opportunities to set the ground up to limit the opposition from an effective counter-attack.
Richmond's ability to lock the ball in its forward half and build pressure on the opposition has been clearly evident in the back half of the season. Since Round 10 the Tigers have created the third-most forward-50 stoppages of any team and rank fourth in time in forward half.
STOPPAGESFrom 2003-09, Brendon Lade was the AFL’s No.1 tap ruckman and Port Adelaide was the competition’s best stoppage team.
His retirement in 2009 coincided with Hardwick’s appointment as Richmond coach and he joined his former teammate as an assistant in 2010.
His experience in guiding Port’s successful midfield group through his playing days has helped build the Tigers into the AFL’s premier stoppage team in 2013.
As Richmond’s stoppage coach, Lade has some undoubted talent at his disposal but his ability to turn that into results this year has been a crucial part of Richmond’s rise.
Richmond has outscored its opposition by 356 points from clearances in 2013, ranking it a clear No.1 in the AFL. With up to 10 players rolling through the midfield (not including the ruckman) each week, the Tigers have ample depth, a good mix of youth and experience, speed and toughness, skill and smarts.
A dominant core of players rotating through the midfield makes it hard for opposition sides to plan against, and allows the Tigers to dictate terms in the middle. They are +21 in goals from centre bounces, a clear No.1 in the AFL, with most of those scores generated by their talented core of Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Brett Deledio, Dustin Martin and Shaun Grigg.
While success at centre bounces is sometimes random, solid structures and set-ups stand up most at stoppages around the ground. The Tigers have excelled in these situations in 2013 also, with only Sydney having a better differential in scoring from throw-ins and ball-ups.
As evident with teams like Geelong and Hawthorn, winning clearances isn’t as paramount as making them count on the scoreboard when you do. The modern game has become more about quality clearances rather than quantity. Richmond has excelled on both fronts this year, able to score heavily when they do win a clearance and able to restrict the opposition from clean takeaways more often than not.
In 2013 the three best teams in terms of clearance differential were North Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and Carlton – none of which finished in the top-eight.
Richmond’s ability to hurt the opposition at stoppage is most evident at throw-ins, the most common stoppage type. While they actually won fewer throw-in clearances than their opposition across the season, the Tigers outscored them by 25 goals from those clearance wins. Improved spread both ways has been a significant factor, tying into the marked improvement in team defence.
Pt 2 to follow........
