Champion Data picks the top 30 draft prospects of 2013 Jay Clark and Sam Landsberger
Herald Sun
November 14, 2013 8:00PMSuperFooty draft experts Jay Clark and Sam Landsberger discuss the top 30 prospects.
THE AFL's official number crunchers select the top 30 players from across the country based on their performances in recent years.
If Champion Data was picking from a schoolyard this is how next week's national draft order would look.
It only includes players who appeared at the national Under-18 championships.
Our own draft experts Jay Clark and Sam Landsberger also run their eye over the rankings and how they might compare to the actual draft.
COLLINGWOOD is set to steal a top-three draft talent for the second year in a row.
After welcoming boom ruckman Brodie Grundy at No. 18 last year they are again shaping as the big winners of the first round with dual All-Australian defender firming as the Pies' No. 6 selection.
The 190cm backman was this week flown to Melbourne by the Demons in the hope he could slip to their No. 9 pick.
In a Herald Sun exclusive, Champion Data ranked Scharenberg the third-best player in the pool.
But the Dees hopes of landing the rebound king appear dashed with the Pies closing on a ready-made Heath Shaw replacement.
1. TOM BOYD
No opponent has been able to compete against Boyd in a contest. The most powerful junior forward since Tom Hawkins. Accurate set-shot.
WE SAY: The Giants will forget about missing out on Buddy Franklin when this bloke blossoms.
2. JOSH KELLY
The best midfielder in the country. Kelly is a ball magnet able to win inside and outside ball and has exceptional skills on both sides.
WE SAY: Melbourne may rue giving this running machine away. Looks a 200-game star.
3. MATTHEW SCHARENBERG
Elite intercept player and ball-winning defender. Has the capacity to push into the midfield. Reads the play exceptionally well.
WE SAY: Sliding down the draft order, making him one of the steals of the draft. Queries on feet issues scaring some clubs.
4. DOM SHEED
The No. 1 ranked midfielder at the national carnival. A stoppage player who breaks away from congested situations and kicks goals.
WE SAY: Eagles should get Sheed at 11, but Lions thinking long and hard.
5. JACK BILLINGS
A creative and dangerous half-forward, earning back-to-back All-Australian honours. Creative by foot and clever overhead.
WE SAY: Can amaze up forward but potential lies in the midfield. Saints looking to pull trigger at No. 3.
6. LEWIS TAYLOR
Brent Harvey-clone dominated his two seasons in the TAC Cup. Taylor's ability to distribute the ball by foot on either side of his body is supreme.
WE SAY: Only 173cm but as a pure footballer he's top five. GWS, armed with pick 14, watching closely.
7. LUKE MCDONALD
Rebounds from defence with penetrating left foot. Wins own ball and is smart going forward.
WE SAY: It will be a sexy halfback line when McDonald and Shaun Atley are breaking lines next year.
8. JAMES AISH
Like Andrew Gaff a wingman with exceptional skills. But if the ball doesn't find him he may struggle.
WE SAY: A surprise to see him so low. Dogs salivating with pick 4, but can get tagged.
9. KADE KOLODJASHNIJ
Creative rebounding defender likened to Grant Birchall. Run-and-carry specialist who will push into the midfield.
WE SAY: Athletic backman is beautiful to watch. Suns in love with his rebound game.
10. BEN LENNON
Overhead marking supreme but top strength is his booming right foot. Best suited as a third tall forward.
WE SAY:
Tigers praying he slips to 12. Not a genuine midfielder but a weapon on the flanks.
11. MATT CROUCH
A stoppage beast who thrives in traffic. Ball-winning machine averaging 38 disposals in TAC Cup. Knocks on his kick.
WE SAY: Queries over his running ability could see him slide to join brother Brad.
12. LUKE DUNSTAN
A big-bodied strong midfielder whose No. 1 strength is his stoppage work. Ranked elite for clearances at championships.
WE SAY: Looks a cheap get in the 20s. Could emulate Ollie Wines' impact.
13. CHRISTIAN SALEM
Classy midfielder is silky on his left side. Doesn't need huge numbers to cut apart teams due to high efficiency.
WE SAY: Averaged 145 SuperCoach points, justifying interest from Lions, Dees and Pies.
14. CAM MCCARTHY
Contested marking machine with a big tank. Could be a unique key forward who pushes up to the wing.
WE SAY: Shades of Matthew Richardson. Lions (pick 7) could pip the Pies.
15. MITCH HONEYCHURCH
Damaging midfielder hits the scoreboard. The only TAC Cup player to average more than 20 disposals and two goals a game.
WE SAY: Clubs have him far lower but shapes as a value pick. Dogs keen at 42.
16. MICHAEL GIBBONS
A clearance specialist who averaged 118 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals and five tackles across 41 matches. Hit the scoreboard, booting 31 goals.
WE SAY: A shock given clubs expected Gibbons to be a late-round chance.
17. NATHAN FREEMAN
Unique ability to win clearances and contested footy but can also breakaway with super pace. Hasn't kicked a lot of goals.
WE SAY: Luke Shuey-type would add much-needed speed to Lions onball division.
18. MARCUS BONTEMPELLI
Consistency the big issue. Struggled for Vic Metro but dominated some TAC Cup games onball. His size and skill allow him to play as a midfielder or forward.
WE SAY: Finds time like Scott Pendlebury, but Pies going cold. One for Mick.
19. TRENT DUMONT
Doesn't win huge numbers but Dumont's class and poise under pressure a highlight. High disposal efficiency.
WE SAY: All-rounder who hurts the opposition. Could sneak into the first round.
20. MICHAEL APENESS
Big man from a rugby background who plays forward/ruck like David Hale. Hasn't played much footy but takes a strong grab.
WE SAY: One of the few big men in the draft but ACL recovery a worry for some.
21. DARCY HOURIGAN
Mid-sized forward who thrives in marking contest and is elite at ground level. A proven goalkicker, averaging almost two a game across 51 matches.
WE SAY: Strong like Jack Darling. Had bumper carnival before SANFL form fizzled.
22. BILLY HARTUNG
Weapons include elite ball use and a huge tank. Can burn sides with speed up the wing and wins most of his possessions uncontested.
WE SAY: Saints have done a lot of work but late mail could see him slide into the 20s.
23. TOBY NANKERVIS
Ready-made ruckman overlooked at last year's draft. Wins the ball, pushes forward and produced similar numbers to Brodie Grundy last year.
WE SAY: Nankervis and Rory Lobb are the two best genuine rucks. Dons might pounce.
24. ZAK JONES
Plays like brother Nathan (Melbourne) but with more pace. Contested ball winner is aggressive through the backline and midfield.
WE SAY: In the frame for Tigers at 12 and Cats at 16 but won't get past the Suns at 20.
25. BLAKE ACRES
Injury-hit utility kept to 11 games this year. Classy ball use and at 189cm can play anywhere. Strong overhead.
WE SAY: Clubs are divided but he fits Geelong's mould. Dockers watching.
26. ZACH MERRETT
Lethal left foot does damage across half-forward, like brother Jackson at Essendon. Has midfield potential but best suited kicking inside 50.
WE SAY: Hawks love their sharp left-foot kicking. Strong talk they'll go Dayle Garlett at 24.
27. JAMES TSITAS
Pressure king who excels at stoppages. Dominated every competition this year, including a 128-point TAC Cup SuperCoach average.
WE SAY: Bit of a surprise this high but Tsitas runs both ways and is a big team man.
28. JAY KENNEDY-HARRIS
Best small forward in the draft who wins ball inside 50 and creates scoring opportunities. Showed in the TAC Cup he's now got midfield capabilities.
WE SAY: Think Jake Neade. Excellent tackler who can defy height (173cm).
29. BLAINE JOHNSON
Was WA's second-leading goalkicker at the carnival. In-between size makes for a tough match-up on lead or overhead.
WE SAY: Booming right foot is a weapon outside 50. Later pick.
30. DARCY GARDINER
Clearly the best key defender of the draft and when involved in a one-on-one contest rarely gets beaten. More of a lockdown stopper than a creative backman.
WE SAY: Linked to GWS at 14 but will slide to Saints or Lions.
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HOW JAY CLARK AND SAM LANDSBERGER PREDICT THE TOP 301.Greater Western Sydney Tom Boyd (KF)
2. Greater Western Sydney Josh Kelly (Mid)
3. St Kilda Jack Billings (Fwd/Mid)
4. Western Bulldogs James Aish (Mid)
5. Gold Coast Kade Kolodashnij (Def)
6. Collingwood Matthew Scharenberg (Def)
7. Brisbane Nathan Freeman (Mid)
8. North Melbourne Luke McDonald (Def/Mid)
9. Melbourne Christian Salem (Mid)
10. Collingwood Cameron McCarthy (KF)
11. West Coast Dom Sheed (Mid)
12. Richmond Ben Lennon (Fwd-Mid)13. Carlton Marcus Bontempelli (Mid)
14. Greater Western Sydney Lewis Taylor (Mid)
15. Sydney Rory Lobb (Ruck)
16. Geelong Blake Acres (Mid)
17. Fremantle Michael Apeness (KF)
18. St Kilda Billy Hartung (Mid)
19. St Kilda Darcy Gardiner (KD)
20. Gold Coast Zak Jones (Def/Mid)
21. Port Adelaide Jarman Impey (Fwd)
22. Brisbane Trent Dumont (Mid)
23. Adelaide Matthew Crouch (Mid)
24 Hawthorn Zach Merrett (Fwd/Mid)
25. Brisbane Daniel McStay (KD)
26. Essendon Patrick Cripps (Mid)
27. Gold Coast Jake Kolodjashnij (KD)
28. Brisbane Luke Dunstan (Mid)
29. Greater Western Sydney Tom Cutler (Def)
30. North Melbourne Jay Kennedy-Harris (Fwd)
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