Hobart, Darwin etc.

[Judge Roughneck]

When do you see Tassie, Darwin or NT getting an AFL side?

I would the answer is closer to some day, than never.

[Diocletian]

There would first need to be a drastic change in thinking and priorities at the AFL before any Tasmanian & NT sides even get a look in. Their only chances in the current climate are via relocation of struggling Victorian clubs and even then I can't see a club moving to the NT due to it's small population. They barely get 10,000 to the AFL matches they play in Darwin now. The current regime and mindset will never establish entirely new clubs in these places IMO.

THE AFL have little interest in expanding the competition to small markets that are already essentially Australian Rules territory and where hearts and minds have long been won. These people already watch AFL on TV and that's what matters most to the powers that be. We'll probably see clubs in places like Canberra, North Queensland and even NZ first.

[mightytiges]

Tassie needs its population to double/triple before getting their own team and on current trends that's not going to happen anytime soon. Hobart's population is 214k while Launceston's is just 106k. Even ignoring the north/south divide that exists in Tassie, the combined population of both is far less than the minimum 500k that AFL would use as a starting point before looking at putting an AFL club down there. Small population, negligible population growth and as NT said a state that already supports footy on the TV sadly for them equals no team. It doesn't help either that footy at a state league level is being left behind the major footy states and even Qld clubs in the NEAFL have probably gone past Tassie footy clubs in terms of standard on field and finances off it. The irony is if Tassie were to ever reach the necessary population and pop. growth (plus the necessary local corporate support), the state could be in the running for two teams - one for Hobart and one for the north based in Launceston.

As for elsewhere, Darwin is a no as well given it's small population of 127k.

While I don't see the AFL expanding again for at least another 30 years given GC and especially GWS are long-term projects that will need $$$ to prop them up until their local support base grows to a point that it can sustain their respective clus (see you in 30 years at least for GWS), the AFL will be looking to North Queensland (Cairns most likely the base), Wellington (NZ) and possibly even a 3rd WA AFL club as the next expansion targets given their respective projected population growths and to expand the reach of the sport into new or larger existing markets that can generate greater TV ratings and revenue.

[Judge Roughneck]

Min 500k rule is a bit silly.. more so when ones takes into account the passionnfornthebgane in west sydney vs. Tassie. The argument is gw is profitable, yet the afl have budgeted to run at a loss for 20-30 in ws Only five cities in aust 500k+

Hobart is 6th biggest population in aust outside of Melb Syd bris Perth ade. Maybe fifth the gold coast figures seem to include a NSW town.


7th Townsville
8th Darwin
9th cains
14th Launceston

[mightytiges]

Min 500k rule is a bit silly.. more so when ones takes into account the passionnfornthebgane in west sydney vs. Tassie. The argument is gw is profitable, yet the afl have budgeted to run at a loss for 20-30 in ws Only five cities in aust 500k+

Hobart is 6th biggest population in aust outside of Melb Syd bris Perth ade. Maybe fifth the gold coast figures seem to include a NSW town.


7th Townsville
8th Darwin
9th cains
14th Launceston

Hobart isn't in the top 10 and Launceston is around 20th in terms of Australian city populations. I've added NZ cities below as well as the NRL, AL (A-League), SR (Super Rugby) and the NBL have franchises over there while the AFL is now playing a home/away game in Wellington.


1. Greater Sydney (excl. Central Coast)   4.38m ........... 8.5 NRL, 2 AFL, 2 AL, 1 SR, 2 BBL, 1 NBL
2. Greater Melbourne                            4.25m ............. 1 NRL, 9 AFL, 2 AL, 1 SR, 2 BBL, 1 NBL
3. Greater Brisbane                              2.19m ............. 1 NRL, 1 AFL, 1 AL, 1 SR, 1 BBL
4. Greater Perth                                  1.90m .............          2 AFL, 1 AL, 1 SR, 1 BBL, 1 NBL
5. Greater Auckland (NZ)                      1.42m .............. 1 NRL,                 1 SR,          1 NBL
6. Greater Adelaide                              1.28m .............          2 AFL, 1 AL,       , 1 BBL, 1 NBL
7. Gold Coast-Tweed Heads                    591k ............. 1 NRL, 1 AFL             
8. Newcastle-Maitland                           419k ............. 1 NRL,           1 AL
9. Canberra-Queanbeyan                       412k ............. 1 NRL,                   1 SR
10. Greater Wellington (NZ)                   398k .............                     1 AL, 1 SR
11. Greater Christchurch (NZ)                379k .............                             1 SR
12. Central Coast (NSW)                       298k .............                     1 AL
13. Sunshine Coast (Qld)                       285k .............
14. Greater Wollongong                         282k ............. 0.5 NRL,                                  1 NBL
15. Greater Hobart                               217k .............                                    1 BBL   
16. Greater Hamilton (NZ)                      212k .............                            1 SR
17. Greater Geelong                             179k .............            1 AFL
18. Greater Townsville                          172k .............  1 NRL,                                    1 NBL
19. Greater Cairns                                143k ............                                               1 NBL
20. Greater Darwin                               132k ............

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Australia_by_population
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_New_Zealand

The 500k minimum population is just a guide for the codes. Smaller centres but with a huge passion to financially sustain a club will be looked at; larger centres who support other codes will be lucky to get one team, if any. The AFL saw Western Sydney as growing to 4m people within the next 30 years. Even scratching out a 1-2% core niche of that will eventually sustain GWS.

Of the different codes, the NRL looks the one next in line to expand. A second team in Brisbane (Western Brisbane/Ipswich), Perth, Wellington, Central Coast and Central Qld would be their potential targets.

[Judge Roughneck]

6th or so largest population center without an AFL side  *

Giants lost 900 members and are 5000....

Tassie would have 20 easy

[mightytiges]

6th or so largest population center without an AFL side  *

Giants lost 900 members and are 5000....

Tassie would have 20 easy

It's not just about the 'now' though. Hobart's population is hardly growing so even if an stand-alone AFL club down there could get 20k now (which is nowhere enough long-term), there is minimal growth potential, a lack of large corporate support, and a team down there would basically do nothing to boost the AFL's TV rights. GWS, on the other hand, had 12k member last year, two Sydney teams sees an AFL game played there every week which increases the TV rights, Western Sydney will grow by 2m people over the next 25-30 years, and Sydney has massive corporate support. I'd love Tassie to get its own club or two as in the long-term they deserve one and they do love their footy compared to many other regions in Australia. However, the realities are against Tassie unless they somehow can grow (double/triple) their population in a big way over the next 25-30 years to turn a potential 20k members into potentially 40k+ members, which appears unlikely on current population and economic trends. Unfortunately, they don't have a booming economic sector (as WA and Qld do with mining) to boost economic output significantly to cause a surge in population growth and a large corporate presence.

[Judge Roughneck]

6th or so largest population center without an AFL side  *

Giants lost 900 members and are 5000....

Tassie would have 20 easy

It's not just about the 'now' though.

I know but didn't the afl say they were happy for a 25-30 year lose in GWS with the eyes ahead to eventual profit?

They are happy to lose money for decades in order to 'grow' the game, apparently. Yet there is already Berserkers in Tassie that go nuts with an AFL side.

Must be more to life than TV rights growth    If you had two Tassie teams it'd be like Rangers-Celtic 

If there were two divison of AFL with promotion / relegation or, a fixture with playing everyone once instead of a 'draw' with 1.5 games vs. each team, a Tassie side could be accommodate without the 30 year plans and needing to triple the population. 

If the liberals continue to win perhaps Tassie with have a booming economic sector in the old growth forest cutting industy and their chances of being allowed participate in the sports top flight would become a step closer.