Fox Footy expert David King runs the rule over Richmond’s recycled list looking to contend in 2014Herald-Sun
April 16, 2014 9:00PMLIST management and recruiting are inexact sciences. Both are full of opinions and philosophies, successes and failures.
It’s largely about blending the elite picks with the speculative and getting the balance right at a time when the opportunity for the ultimate success is nigh.
The Richmond Football Club’s blend and balance has ventured down the “Moneyball” path over the past 3-4 years. It is an initiative not uncommon in the AFL, but to this extent it is unprecedented.
The Tigers have acquired previously exposed talent from rival clubs for minimal cost — both financially and late draft picks — where the returns are low percentage.
These players are available for a reason; they weren’t considered good enough.
Rarely, if ever, would these players become A Grade and are most likely destined to be role players or solid B or C Graders at best.
The theory that the “Moneyballers” are better than the unsighted kids is, again only opinion. But considering the volume of games spent and time invested, the question must be asked: Are those games wasted?
These B or C Graders rarely alter momentum in games and when contests are sliding away like we’ve witnessed over the recent couple of seasons, have they had the mental strength and application to stifle the oppositions run? Particularly late in games?
Shaun Grigg and Bachar Houli are the poster boys for the Moneyball theory. Richmond would state that they paid only a small price for these types, but the reality is that it’s another list position. Another youngster.
Would the Tigers faithful prefer to witness Liam McBean possibly fail, but learn for the next five to 10 weeks, rather than ride the Aaron Edwards roller-coaster for what will be either his last or second last season?
Which is the better investment? Young players continue to surprise and at times disappoint, but they’re the future.
Richmond’s recruiting department has nailed their first-round picks over the last seven to eight years, generally selecting the best available midfielders, including Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Reece Conca, Brandon Ellis and Nick Vlastuin.
The core of the Tigers’ list is elite or trending that way. Jack Riewoldt and Alex Rance will remain the bookends to build around. There is an impatience regarding Richmond’s next top four or premiership tilt, of which I have been guilty, but maybe they simply aren’t there yet.
Hawthorn’s strategic list management decisions involve the releasing of elite picks for elite talent and therefore, maximum returns. Brian Lake, Shaun Burgoyne and Jack Gunston were effectively traded for picks 9, 21 and 24 over the past four seasons.
Lake won the Norm Smith medal, while Gunston challenged with four goals, but they wouldn’t have got there at all without the three-goal preliminary final heroics of Burgoyne, who put the Hawks in front late.
You get what you pay for. They are all big-game performers who cost, but delivered.
What is the success rate of the Moneyballers in big games and big moments?
This season at Punt Rd will bring those times and those moments and the football world waits to see whether they rise to that challenge or not. If they fail then surely the Moneyball program must be shelved.
Sydney has historically owned this second club revitalisation method, but look to have significantly changed their philosophy — Kurt Tippet and Lance Franklin are a far cry from Mitch Morton and Marty Mattner.
Geelong has built almost exclusively with draft picks, but in recent years Hamish McIntosh, Jared Rivers and Josh Caddy have been added after the failed tilt at Travis Boak.
How many of these flawed Moneyball types is too many? How many before your blend and your team is diluted? Is there a tipping point? Damien Hardwick must wonder why his list is more diluted than any other team.
There isn’t a correct or incorrect answer to list composition. There’s no manual or how-to guide. Feedback comes in the form of wins and losses. That is the harsh reality of the win-only industry that is the AFL.
Knowing what stage you’re at is the single most important assessment at AFL clubs. All decisions are streamlined around the differing phases from rebuild to premiership launch. Richmond faces some very interesting and confronting decisions at seasons end, because under Hardwick they’ve steadily improved from six wins in 2010, to eight in 2011, to 10 in 2012 and to 15 last year.
A step backwards without the promotion of youth would be a significant setback.
Is this Moneyball approach allowing Richmond to become a genuine contender or just a finals aspirant? Are they recruiting for mediocrity and if so what’s the point?
Time will be the judge, jury and executioner.
SECOND-HAND TIGERSTodd Banfield (Brisbane Lions)
Troy Chaplin (Port Adelaide)
Aaron Edwards (North Melbourne)
Nathan Gordon (Sydney)
Shaun Grigg (Carlton)
Shaun Hampson (Carlton)
Bachar Houli (Essendon)
Chris Knights (Adelaide)
Ivan Maric (Adelaide)
Anthony Miles (GWS)
Ricky Petterd (Melbourne)
Orren Stephenson (Geelong)
Matt Thomas (Port Adelaide)
— No. of players on your clubs list who started elsewhere:Richmond 13
Carlton 12
St Kilda 12
Collingwood 11
GWS Giants 11
Hawthorn 11
Melbourne 11
Port Adelaide 10
West Coast Eagles 9
Brisbane 9
Sydney Swans 9
Adelaide 8
Fremantle 8
Gold Coast Suns 8
North Melbourne 6
Essendon 5
Western Bulldogs 5
Geelong 3
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