did a review of the last 9~10 rounds for each team outside the 8, and i think the greatest threats to Richmond finishing as low as possible (other than a sudden burst of form from us) are Melbourne, Carlton and the Doggies.
GWS, Stk and Bris: all currently on 3 wins and probably wont win more than 2 from their last 10 based on their draw. the bottom 3 is locked in for mine. we arent a chance for a top 3 pick.
The next 3: WB, Carl and Richmond (7 wins)
WB ~ a tough draw and probably only 3 more wins. low percentage says theyll finish below us .
Carl ~ also a tough draw with only 3 more wins. again a lower percentage will see them finish below us i reckon
Rich ~ the easiest draw of the bottom 10 teams. ive got us at lowest finishing 6th bottom with 4 more wins (stk, bris, gws and stk again) taking us to 7 wins and a higher percentage. losses to port, wce away

Ess Adel and Syd. if we win one of those we will finish above:
Melbourne. should finish on 8 wins, 7th bottom. Has an ok run home.
The next 3:
Ess, Wc and Adel. 9 wins to Ess and 10 to Adel and WC.
So i reckon pick 6 at best, pick 7 at worst. unless carlton and wb hit their straps, in which case maybe we can jag pick 4.
So in summary, pray for:~
~ Losses to teams Ess, Adel and WC. if we win 1 or more of these we are throwing away an advantage come draft time.
~ Carlton, WB and Melbourne to win the games they should and hopefully 1 or more upsets.