Brownlow Medal bolters Will Brodie
The Age
August 22, 2014There are rules which usually apply when trying to identify the winner of the Brownlow Medal.
The medal-winner plays every round, polls in at least 10 games, plays for a team that makes the finals, and records three votes as best player on the ground at least six times. He is not necessarily the short favourite, but is well in the market. He has polled well before. And he is a midfielder.
This season shapes as an exception, on a number of counts.
Many of the perennial contenders have been less consistent than in previous campaigns, and dual winner Gary Ablett remains a chance to win despite being sidelined by injury since round 16. No player has won the game's highest individual honour when missing more than four games, but some pundits believe he was on 24 votes when he departed the scene, and that may be enough.
It may not be the 'midfielders medal' in 2014. Swans forward Lance Franklin, with another couple of big performances, may become the first non-onballer in a generation to take home Charlie. He gets a lot of the ball and his best games are undeniably three-vote efforts.
And then there is the prospect of most interest to poor fans everywhere: A roughie might get up.
Two weeks ago, Dyson Heppell and Matt Priddis were at generous odds. After big games at the weekend, they are in the top 10 picks. There will be other major fluctuations in the weeks to come.
With two rounds to play, there could be many players in contention. Here's our assessment of some of those to consider for an each-way ticket.
DUSTIN MARTIN Richmond Current odds: $101
Richmond's most consistent player in 2014 is up against vote-hog teammate Trent Cotchin, and may not get due reward for being so good when Richmond was so bad early in the season. He might also struggle to garner enough three-vote games. However, Martin polled 16 votes last year, and he could poll in 13 games. He needs a bit of luck, and a strong finish, but he is a great each-way bet at these odds.TRENT COTCHIN Richmond $26
Cotchin has not been as consistent as in previous years, when he has proven the apple of the umpires' eyes – he polled 19 votes last year and 26 in 2012 – but he has had many outstanding games guaranteed to win him three votes, especially in Tiger victories. By our reckoning, his current range of possible votes is 17-24. That makes him as good a chance as players at half his odds.LANCE FRANKLIN Sydney $16The high-profile dynamo could break the mould of the 'midfielder's medal' because, unlike many star forwards, he wins his own ball up the ground, recording not just marks and goals, but stats worthy of a winger. Franklin's big games this year have been spectacular, and though he may need more votes, he is more likely than many other roughies to produce big three vote games in the final fortnight. We rate him to have a possible current maximum of 20 votes, with a minimum of 15, higher than most other outsiders. Polled 20 votes in 2008 and 2010.
ROBBIE GRAY Port Adelaide $34The consistent half-forward/midfielder has had an outstanding season, giving himself a chance to poll in 13 games. He has no proven vote-winning form, many of his better efforts have come in losses and he seemingly lacks three-vote opportunities, but if he has emerged on umpire radars, two strong finishing games could make him a shock contender.
LUKE PARKER Sydney $101Parker is a genuine roughie, who would probably need two BOGs to contend, but his consistent ball-winning makes him a contender for votes in 12 games. He has gone to a new level in 2014 in a breakout season that includes a couple of gilt-edged best-on-ground performances.
KIEREN JACK Sydney $151At first glance, Jack's 2014 has not been at the level of his previous two seasons. But he could poll in nine games, and his projected highest possible votes won at this point is 20. Don't forget that Josh Kennedy was favoured to win big votes in 2012, and reaped 19 votes, however his chances were stymied by Jack's strong polling (15 votes), a pattern which continued last year when Jack picked up 19 votes. He is the one the umps notice, and at this price, well worth a speculative flutter with spare change.
PATRICK DANGERFIELD Adelaide $31Dangerfield is another midfield dynamo whose best performances catch the umpires' eyes – in the past two seasons he was right in contention on the back of five best-on-ground counts. He have as a chance to poll in ten games, with three clear best-on-ground performances so far. Our guess he will need a low-scoring count, but two big games would see his odds sliced dramatically.
BRYCE GIBBS Carlton $101The oft-maligned midfielder has embarrassed the critics with a superb 2014, leading the Blues onballers when his team was struggling, and starring in several wins when they began improving. He would have to nab best on ground status in each of his four biggest games, a tall order, given two were in narrow losses, but he fits the profile of a contender, having ten chances to poll.
JORDAN LEWIS Hawthorn $31By our reckoning, Lewis will need two best on ground performances in his final two games to become a winning chance. He is not a proven vote-winner, having never polled in double figures, and he polled only only four votes in 2013. We rate him as a chance for three votes in only three games. And we feel that he will have only one to four votes before his supercharged run starts at round 12. So where will all the Hawk votes go? It has been a team effort in 2014. Jarryd Roughead, Luke Hodge, Jack Gunston, Sam Mitchell, Luke Breust and Shaun Burgoyne have had all had several outstanding games.
TRAVIS BOAK Port Adelaide $21The Port Adelaide captain might be a little too far off the pace, having recorded three best-on-ground results during the Port's stellar first half of the season, and none since. We don't rate him as good a chance as some punters and have him on a current highest possible total of 16 votes. But he is a proven vote-winner and there are 11 games in which he is a chance to poll. Umpires might consider the tough distributor first amongst equals in the talented Port midfield.
SCOTT THOMPSON Adelaide $101Ultra-consistent, perennial vote-hog who has again been a permanent placegetter on the Crows' best players lists. He could poll in nine games in a rich vein of form between rounds four and 15, but he has missed rounds 20 and 21 through injury. Returning for the final two games and could be worth a place ticket. Polled in 11 games on his way to 25 votes in 2012.
DAYNE BEAMS Collingwood $34Beams was having as good a year as feted teammate Scott Pendlebury ($13), but his knee injury in round 21 will rule him out as a Brownlow Medal chance. A strong performance in the last three rounds would have had him right in the mix, for he is a chance to poll in ten games, a chance for best on ground in four, and we have him on a maximum of 19 votes when his season was cut short. Keep him in mind for next year and don't forget his 19 votes in 2012.
MICHAEL BARLOW Fremantle $81The former mature-age recruit is scrutinised by Brownlow-watchers because of his extraordinary debut season in 2010, when he polled 12 votes in 13 games. He backed that with 14 votes last year. Barlow is right on the cusp of contention, with a possible maximum 18 votes and nine games in which we reckon he could poll. The problem is a four-game injury absence between rounds 3 and seven, and a broken thumb which will keep him out of the final two rounds. We think only G. Ablett can miss that many games and remain a winning chance.
BRAD EBERT Port Adelaide $101Tough, ball-winning midfielder who started to capture attention of umpires in 2014 (11 votes). He would have been a short favourite if he continued his early season form, where he was in the best three Port Adelaide players for five straight weeks. His second half of the year has mirrored that of his team, with only one or two showings as impressive. With five possible chances for best on ground status, and the chance to poll in ten games, he remains a legitimate place chance.
THE DETAILSH: Highest estimated current votes (after round 21)
L: Lowest estimated current votes (after round 21)
CP: Number of games player can poll in
TC: Number of chances for three vote games
Final line indicates rounds in which player may poll. * denotes possible three-vote game[/b]
LANCE FRANKLIN Sydney $16H: 20, L: 15 CP: 7. TC: 5
Previous best: 2008, 2010: 20
3*, 9*, 13*, 14, 15*, 17*, 21
JORDAN LEWIS Hawthorn $31H: 18, L: 11 CP: 10. TC: 3
Previous best: 2008: 9
3, 9, 10, 12, 15, 17, 18*, 19, 20*, 21*
TRAVIS BOAK Port Adelaide $21H: 16, L: 11 CP: 11 TC: 4.
Previous best: 2013: 13; 2010: 16
1, 3, 4* 6* 8, 10*, 11, 14, 15, 17* 20, 21.
TRENT COTCHIN Richmond $26
H: 24, L: 17, CP: 11. TC: 5.
Previous best: 2013: 19; 2012 26; 2011: 15
1, 2*, 3, 6*, 14, 15*, 16, 17, 19*, 20, 21*PATRICK DANGERFIELD Adelaide $31H: 18, L: 11. CP: 10. TC: 3
Previous best: 2013: 22; 2012: 23.
2, 5*, 6, 7, 9*, 10, 11, 15, 17, 18*
ROBBIE GRAY Port Adelaide $34H: 23 L: 10 CP: 13. TC: 2
Previous best: 2009, 2011: 6
3, 5*, 6, 7, 8, 11*, 12*, 14, 15, 16, 18, 20, 21
DAYNE BEAMS Collingwood $34H: 19 L: 16 CP: 0. TC: 4
Previous best: 2012: 19
2, 4*, 6, 7, 10*, 11*, 15, 16, 18, 19*
MICHAEL BARLOW Fremantle $81H: 18 L: 9 CP: 9. TC: 4
Previous best: 2013: 14; 2011 12
2*, 9, 11, 13, 14*, 16*, 19, 20*, 21
BRAD EBERT Port Adelaide $101H: 22 L: 14 CP: 10. TC: 5
Previous best: 2013: 11
2, 3, 4*, 5*, 6*, 10*, 12, 13*, 18, 20
SCOTT THOMPSON Adelaide $101H: 22 L: 13 CP: 10 TC: 4
Previous best: 2012: 25; 2011: 12; 2010: 15; 2009: 11; 2008: 15; 2007: 18
4*, 5*, 6, 7, 9, 10*, 11, 13, 14*, 15
BRYCE GIBBS Carlton $101H: 22 L: 11 CP: 10 TC: 4
Previous best: 2011: 12; 2009: 15
5*, 6, 8*, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18*, 20, 21*
LUKE PARKER Sydney $101H:19, L: 7 CP: 12. TC: 3
Previous best: 4, 2012. 0 in 2013.
1, 3*, 5, 8, 9, 12, 14, 16*, 17, 19*, 20, 21
DUSTIN MARTIN Richmond $101
H 23 L 12 CP 13. TC 1
Previous best: 2013: 16 votes
2, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18*KIEREN JACK Sydney $151HP: 20 LP: 11 CP: 9. TC: 1
Previous best: 19 in 2013; 15 in 2012.
5, 7, 9, 13, 14, 15*, 17, 20, 21
THE MIDFIELDER'S MEDAL: Odds for the last ten years2004 – Chris Judd $5
2005 – Ben Cousins $2.10 (FAV)
2006 – Adam Goodes $2.70 (FAV)
2007 – Jimmy Bartel $10
2008 – Adam Cooney $13
2009 – Gary Ablett $3 (FAV)
2010 - Chris Judd $7
2011 - Dane Swan $15
2012 – Jobe Watson $5
2013 – Gary Ablett $1.80 (FAV)
Shane Crawford was $1.50 in 1999 shortest priced winner ever
Paul Kelly in 1993 was over 20-1.
MOST BROWNLOW VOTES WITHOUT ABLETT MARKET IN JULYScott Pendlebury (Coll) – $3.25
Nathan Fyfe (Fre) – $3.50
Josh Kennedy (Syd) – $4.50
Joel Selwood (Gee) – $10
Brent Harvey (Nth) – $14
Travis Boak (Port) – $14
Dustin Martin (Rich) – $16Scott Thompson (Ade) – $16
Trent Cotchin (Rich) – $16Tom Rockliff (Bris) – $16
Matthew Priddis (WC) – $21
Lance Franklin (Syd) – $21
Dayne Beams (Coll) – $21
- Sportingbet
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/brownlow-medal/brownlow-medal-bolters-20140821-1065en.html
