As a sample, pick 11s over time have been hit and miss. There's a few gems, many good serviceable players and many shockers. Will we botch our pick? The botch rate looks to be about 35-40%. Chances of getting a gun? Maybe 15%?
2013 - Dom Sheed (wc)
2012 - Tory Menzel (car)
2011 - Toby Greene (GWS)
2010 - Tom Lynch (gc)
2009 - Jordan Gysbirts (Mel)
2008 - Steel Sidebottom (Coll)
2007 - Patrick Vezpremi (syd)
2006 - Nathan Brown (Coll)
2005 - Shaun Higgins (wb)
2004 - Adam Thomson (port)
2003 - Beau Waters (wc)
2002 - Jason Winderlich (ess)
2001 - Richard Cole (Coll)
2000 - Trent Sporn (Carl)
1999 - Darren Glass (wc)
1998 - Lenny Hayes (stk)
1997 - Jason Saddington (syd)
1996 - Brent Grgic (mel)
1995 - Don cockatoo-Collins (mel)
1994 - Damien Ryan (rich)