Alex Rance takes on Josh Kennedy in battle that could decide Richmond-West Coast clashJon Ralph
Herald-Sun
June 16, 2015 8:00PMTHE SCIENCE nerds refer to it as the irresistible force paradox: when an unstoppable force collides with an immovable object.
In the AFL’s theatre of dreams it means this: what happens when the AFL’s best defender (Alex Rance) runs into its very best key forward (Josh Kennedy)?
On Friday night those two AFL juggernauts collide, and a dominant performance from either might decide the contest.
After so many rolled-gold Friday night stinkers (thank you Carlton), this one-on-one battle might be worth the price of admission alone.
Here are the statistics which form the prelude to a key position version of Nathan Fyfe versus Patrick Dangerfield.
In the blue corner is Alex Rance, who in 10 games of football has been outmarked in a one-on-one contest just three times.
Yep, three times in 40 quarters of footy.
You remember Melbourne’s Jesse Hogan torching him that night as a boy became a man, but only one other player (Jay Schulz) has outmarked him in a one-on-one contest.
As it turned out, Hogan’s two goals were the only time a player has kicked multiple goals on him, the miserly Rance conceding a grand total of eight majors all year.
In the red corner is West Coast’s Josh Kennedy, streeting the field in the Coleman Medal with a lead of an amazing nine goals.
Fyfe is a world of his own when it comes to marking contests — and is often afford size mismatches — but Kennedy is the best marking forward after winning 44 per cent of his one-on-one contests.
His 4.4 marks inside 50 per game ranks him no. 1 in the competition, but he gets you on the ground too, his 2.4 ground-ball wins inside 50 considered elite for a key forward.
If he marks the ball his lethal right foot nails the chances — with his 43.23 this year proof of his accuracy.
When Rance wins the ball he surges up field hitting targets at a kick rating of +15.1 per cent — ranking him no. 1 for any key defender.
So whoever wins those battles will hurt his opponent with the resultant possession.
Terms of reference set?
Let’s get ready to rumble.
West Coast’s only Coleman Medallist Scott Cummings (88 goals in 1999) is the perfect man to analyse the contest given he is also a close family friend of the Rance family.
“It will be an absolute belter of a contest,’’ he said.
“Alex is an absolute dynamo, he doesn’t know the expression give up. He goes at 100 per cent at every contest and if you are going to take marks on you he will earn it.
“Alex is the perfect matchup for JK. He leads strong, he knows when to lead and where to lead, you rarely see him having shots from the pockets and he has the courage to lead up the centre of the ground and he finishes well.
“He is good in the air and when it’s on the deck, so when the ball hits the ground he’s not out of the contest which is what makes him so versatile.”
Kennedy has beaten up on plenty of moderate sides in the past few years, last season ranking only equal 62nd for scoreboard impact against the top eight sides.
If he can take Rance’s scalp — like Hogan before him — any remaining questions will be erased.
On Friday night Matt Priddis will shape up against Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio might get Shannon Hurn at times and Ivan Maric will attempt to neutralise ruck opponent Nic Naitanui.
It might not be Wayne Carey versus Glenn Jakovich, but as an equivalent for the modern era it’s not far short.
http://www.news.com.au/national/alex-rance-takes-on-josh-kennedy-in-battle-that-could-decide-richmond-west-coast-clash/story-e6frfkp9-1227401060979
