Match preview from the enemy's perspective ...
Ultimate Preview: Saturday at the 'GDavid Natoli
collingwoodfc.com.au
August 20, 2015 10:37 AMThere are only three weeks left in the AFL Home and Away season and the top eight is finally beginning to look a bit more settled. Unfortunately for the Magpies, a narrow loss last week to Sydney has all but ruled out a spot in the finals this season.
Collingwood is still mathematically a chance if it wins its next three games, and the first of these three assignments is against Richmond this Saturday afternoon at the MCG.
Richmond currently sits in sixth spot and is aiming for a top four finish. This is a crucial game for the Tigers given they are playing a lower ranked opponent and their form has tapered a bit over the last month. Based on past form, it is the sort of game the Tigers struggle in, where they are expected to win and there is a lot riding on the result. If Richmond is a genuine contender this year, then it is a game it simply should tick off.
This being said, Collingwood is a very dangerous opponent and in some regards has nothing to lose from this point on. The Magpies have not been blown away in any games this year, and has shown good form against the best sides. Nathan Buckley's was right on top of Sydney last week but just couldn’t capitalise on a number of opportunities. It has been a familiar tale throughout the second half of the season, but it does illustrate that perhaps Collingwood is not as far behind as many consider. I am slightly wary of the fact that Collingwood openly admitted that it treated last week’s match against Sydney as a final. It is often the case that a team can have a significant drop-off following such a heart-breaking result. However, I think Collingwood will keep fighting to the end, as the effort has been pretty consistent all year.
In some regards, I think Collingwood is in a similar position to Richmond last season, or North Melbourne the year before. Both these sides were close, but just couldn’t get across the line in narrow games. It only took a few small break throughs, and once momentum shifted there was no looking back.
Richmond had a comfortable win against the undermanned Gold Coast last week, but played far from inspiring football (especially in the first half). It laid only one tackle in the first quarter, and looked to be lacking a hard edge. The Tigers haven’t won back-to-back games since rounds fifteen and sixteen, so form hasn’t been perfect. This is an opportunity to regain momentum ahead of finals against a challenging opponent.
Recent HistoryCollingwood had been Richmond’s bogey team under Damien Hardwick until round seven this year where the Tigers broke a seven game losing streak against the Magpies. It was a huge victory for Richmond, and probably the real turning point in their season. Prior to this match, Richmond was really struggling to hit form, but has never looked back since this victory. The Tigers started slow, but an eight goal to three second quarter turned the match on its head, with Richmond eventually winning a thriller by five points.
Trent Cotchin was the chief destroyer with 32 disposals and two goals, whilst Brett Deledio had 30 disposals, 13 marks and kicked two crucial last quarter goals. Jack Riewoldt was dominant, booting four goals, whilst he also had good support from Tyrone Vickery who booted three. For Collingwood, Dane Swan picked up his typical 32 disposals and also kicked two majors. Travis Cloke was dangerous with three goals and Jack Crisp announced himself as a Magpie with 20 disposals and two goals.
At the Selection TableDespite Collingwood’s poor form of late, the injury list is finally looking really healthy, and Buckley has a host of fit players to choose from.
There will be one forced change with Nathan Brown suspended for a week. In his place, Tyson Goldsack could slot straight back in, although he is still battling knee tendonitis issues and in all likelihood will not play at either level this week. Given the very slim chance of making finals, expect Buckley to continue blooding the youth, and it is an opportunity for Jonathon Marsh to take a big assignment. Otherwise, Darcy Moore could play defence and open up a spot for Jesse White who had his second good match at VFL level.
Others pressing for selection are Jarrod Witts who has been dominant at VFL level since he was omitted, while Patrick Karnezis, Sam Dwyer, Clinton Young and Ben Kennedy also continue to rack up huge numbers. Brayden Maynard and Adam Oxley were both rested last week and look set to return to either AFL or VFL level, whilst Matthew Scharenberg responded really well to his omission with 23 disposals and 9 marks across half back.
Turning focus onto Richmond, the Tigers could welcome back the exciting Shane Edwards who has recovered from the fractured leg that has kept him on the sidelines for five weeks. He could slot straight back into the senior side. Matthew Dea, Jason Castagna and Chris Knights are others who could push for selection. Otherwise, the Tigers now have a very stable line-up, and I am not expecting mass changes.
Focus on CollingwoodThe loss to Sydney last week was a real nail in the coffin, considering it is yet another match that Collingwood had opportunities to win but just couldn’t get across the line. It was the fifth loss this year by less than two goals, but more importantly really slammed the door shut on finals aspirations. Nevertheless, there is plenty to like from what I saw last week, and in general this year. Collingwood is still ranked number one in the competition for contested possession. It is also the number one ranked tackling team in the competition.
Buckley knows Richmond can be a very damaging team, however will have noted that Richmond ranks seventeenth in the competition for tackling and eleventh for contested possession. If Collingwood can turn this game into a scrap, then it has an opportunity to exploit some weaknesses in these areas. If Richmond is allowed easy ball movement, then it could get ugly. With the likes of Levi Greenwood, Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan, Jack Crisp, Jordan De Goey, Jarryd Blair and Steele Sidebottom all rotating through the middle, there is enough strength to match the highly talented Richmond midfield. Collingwood’s best hope is to lock the game up, and win the contested footy.
It was also good to see De Goey, Darcy Moore and Jonathon Marsh play so strongly against quality opposition last week. All three of these guys are in their first year at AFL level, and are already establishing themselves as core players in the side. It is a glimpse of Collingwood’s future spine, which is very exciting.
Player FocusJordan De Goey – Last year’s pick five has already made a huge impression at Collingwood, which was capped off with the NAB Rising Star Nomination this week. It came off the back of his best game to date with 18 disposals, 12 tackles and a goal. He was almost apologetic when he received his nomination, highlighting that he also feels that his good friend Darcy Moore probably deserves one as well. However, it is just reward for a fine debut season. De Goey was very important against Sydney, at times squaring off against Josh Kennedy and more than matching him. He is a fine clearance player, and is so good at reading the ball off hands. As he improves his fitness, De Goey has the potential to be something quite special.
Alex Fasolo – Fasolo will be disappointed with his game last week following two dominant games the weeks prior. He had a number of opportunities to hit the scoreboard, but was uncharacteristically inaccurate in front of goal. In many ways, Fasolo has really improved this year and has become a vital part of the forward line. However, he still needs to work on his consistency, particularly against the better sides. He will be looking to bounce back this week.
Taylor Adams – Adams continued his good form last week with 31 disposals and eight tackles, however I felt his influence on the game was slightly down on recent weeks. Nonetheless, he continues to develop as Collingwood’s prime in-and-under player, and will have a huge battle this week against the likes of Trent Cotchin and Anthony Miles. Miles in particular has become a really important player for Richmond, and I think Buckley will throw the task to Adams to go head-to-head and beat him around the stoppages.
Focus on RichmondAs discussed above, the Tigers are very well placed but haven’t been firing on all cylinders recently. I mentioned the issues with tackling and contested football, which are really big areas Richmond needs to clean up ahead of finals if it is able to match up with the best sides.
Collingwood is ranked number one in these areas, so it is an opportunity to Richmond to really step up and get on top of these issues. Only recording one tackle in a quarter of football is unacceptable, and I expect coach Damien Hardwick to put a huge emphasis on tackling this week. Richmond has been good in these areas when it has mattered this year, so I don’t think there will be any panic. With finals approaching, it is important the Tigers improve their tackling quickly.
In other areas, the Richmond midfield has really stepped up all year, with plenty of star power and inside grunt. The improvement from players such as Anthony Miles and Brandon Ellis has meant that the likes of Cotchin and Dustin Martin have been able to really take their games to new levels. When these two are firing, Richmond is very hard to stop.
Player focus
Brett Deledio – Despite the focus on Martin and Cotchin, I consider Deledio to be the most important player at Richmond. Simply put, the Tigers struggle to win without him. This was exemplified against Adelaide in round 19 when he missed with illness, and also in the opening month of the 2015 season when Deledio was recovering from off-season Achilles problems. His importance was really telling when the Tigers last met Collingwood, proving the match-winner with two last quarter goals despite not being 100% match-fit.
Ivan Maric – Another reason for Richmond’s turn-around this season has been the form of ruckman Ivan Maric. He is a real barometer for this side, and when he is dominating the ruck his team seems to lift beside him. With the likes of Cotchin at his feet, Maric’s influence cannot be underestimated. He is also the main big man at the moment with Ben Griffiths and Shaun Hampson out of the side.
Bachar Houli – Houli has become a really important player for Richmond, offering so much rebound off half-back. He was one of Richmond’s best last week against Gold Coast with 29 disposals, 22 of which were kicks. His precise kicking is his strength, and when he is allowed freedom across half back he can cause a lot of damage. He is not afraid to take the game on through the corridor, which was displayed against Fremantle earlier in the year when he elected to kick through the centre in the dying seconds of the game. The ball was turned over and Richmond lost narrowly, largely as a result of this decision. Whilst he was criticised heavily for this decision, Houli is encouraged to take the game on and it is a big reason why the Tigers are able to move the ball so freely at times. Collingwood needs to put pressure on Houli and prevent him from collecting disposals at will.
The Final WordRichmond has every right to go in favourites this week, and realistically should win this game. While Collingwood will likely name a young team, it should still be quite a strong team and cannot be underestimated. The backline will be inexperienced without Nathan Brown, so the midfield is going to have to match Richmond’s powerful onballers to protect the young defenders.
The conditions at this stage look beautiful, which should suit the Tigers. Nonetheless, Collingwood needs to lock this game up, and maximise its strengths which are tackling and contested footy. If the game becomes a scrap, then Collingwood is a huge chance. The Magpies will have looked at how Adelaide played the Tigers a fortnight ago, and taken a lot out of this game.
It’s hard to predict how Collingwood will play this week. In some regards, the let-down of the Sydney lossmay be too great a hurdle to leap, whilst on the other hand there is nothing to lose and we could see the Magpies really take the game on. Although finals are unlikely, there is still a mathematical chance, so I am expecting quite a fierce battle, and definitely not a walk in the park for Richmond. It’s the time of the year where upsets can happen. It all really depends on what attitude the Pies come with on Saturday. If the players have given up hope and are just looking for the end of the season, then Richmond should win comfortably. I just think this Collingwood side has more pride than that, and therefore I wouldn’t be writing it off.
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