AFL fans choose competitive games over ‘David versus Goliath’ match-upsAndrew Jefferson
Herald-Sun
August 21, 2015 9:22PMCOMPETITIVE AFL games with lots of tackles are more attractive to armchair fans than higher possession games with more handballs, new research has shown.
Thursday nights are also the most popular night to televise AFL games followed by Friday nights, the study found.
Despite a view that fans might have a preference for so-called “David versus Goliath” type contests where power teams are challenged by minnows, research by Monash University show fans prefer watching “contested” games rather than one-sided contests.
The concept is known as the “uncertainty-of-outcome hypothesis”.
The study used TV ratings to investigate the importance of match uncertainty in viewing demand for 522 AFL matches broadcast in the 2009-2011 home and away season.
Researchers found matches where the result was harder to predict with bookmakers were a bigger hit with TV viewers.
Four examples included Richmond v Carlton in 2009 (Round 1), Sydney v Collingwood in 2009 (Round 12), Fremantle v Collingwood in 2010 (Round
, and Collingwood v Geelong in 2010 (Round 9).
Two of the report authors, Professor Robert Brooks and Dr Ross Booth, said the report backed up the AFL’s policy of creating a level playing field between its 18 teams and a more competitive competition.
“The importance of match uncertainty for TV ratings would seem to justify the AFL’s playing and financial equalisation strategy which is primarily driven by the player draft and salary cap, and the revenue sharing policies adopted by the AFL,” Prof Brooks said.
“Friday night is very strong and consistent across the year but Thursday night has potential, subject to the fixture being selected appropriately.”
The research paper entitled Do TV Viewers Value Uncertainty of Outcome published in the Economic Record said the vast majority of previous research focused on modelling the relationship between live match attendances as the measure of demand for the sport.
Only a handful of papers investigated the effects of the “uncertainty-of-outcome hypothesis” on TV viewing figures.
AFL spokesman Patrick Keane said: “Fans must have a view that their team can be competitive on any given day, or be competitive for the season ahead when they contemplate a membership.”
http://www.news.com.au/national/afl-fans-choose-competitive-games-over-david-versus-goliath-match-ups/story-e6frfkp9-1227493790262
