Richmond list analysis: Tigers’ premiership window is open .... (Herald-Sun)

[one-eyed]

Richmond list analysis: Tigers’ premiership window is open

    GARY BUCKENARA
    Herald Sun
    October 26, 2015 12:08PM

THE TIME is now, Richmond. Your premiership window is open.

The Tigers are an interesting case. The list isn’t short on star power or talent, yet the last three years has seen them lose three elimination finals in a row — two of which should have been victories.

Damien Hardwick and footy boss Dan Richardson are happy with the state of the list and rightly so but there’s no hiding the fact they have been disappointing in the finals. Key players and the club’s leaders must step up next year but I’ll get into that later in the column.

The fact is this list as it stands, with the addition of Chris Yarran during the trade period, can beat anyone on its day. They are a very dangerous side with a good spread of talent across all lines. It’s consistency and lack of confidence that holds the group back.

What I have learnt by analysing Richmond’s list at the conclusion of 2015 and heading into next year is that the Tigers are definitely in the window and must win a premiership in the next two to three years or they risk missing out and sliding back down the ladder … again.

What some might not realise about the Tigers is their list isn’t as young as some might have you believe.

Ivan Maric and Troy Chaplin will be 30 next year, Brett Deledio will be 29, Jack Riewoldt, Shaun Grigg, Shane Edwards, Bachar Houli and Steven Morris will be 28. Alex Rance has just turned 26, while Trent Cotchin will reach the same age during the season as will Ty Vickery, Nathan Gordon and Sam Lloyd. Yarran will start the season as a 25-year-old.

Then there’s Dustin Martin, Dylan Grimes and David Astbury who will also turn 25 during the season and Ben Griffiths just after it.

Anthony Miles, Jake Batchelor and Kane Lambert will also be 24 when the season starts and Reece Conca will turn the same age in August.

This is not a young team. This is a team in its prime.

But it is a team that hasn’t delivered. It hasn’t delivered on the plans the club has or on the expectations of its fans.

The core group has been together for at least four or five years now, so they should be doing a bit better than what they’ve shown in September.

The age demographic explains why Richmond decided to go to the draft last year and top up with young talent but are now focusing on bringing in experienced players to fill holes with the aim of winning that elusive premiership.

As young players I like Ben Lennon, Conor Menadue is a good runner, Jayden Short is a rookie who has a beautiful kick on him, so there is also some good youngsters coming through.

I’d also like to see Liam McBean get some more games. He still has a young body but he’s never going to be Hulk Hogan — he’s a lean build. He will get stronger but won’t put on massive amounts of muscle but he can be a key position player.

WHAT THEY NEED

The core group of players is there as I’ve written but the Tigers still need another ruckman. Maric will be 30 in January and he can’t do it all so that is a big focus area. They could also use another key position defender and forward — Chaplin only has a couple of years left and Astbury hasn’t been able to slot into that team because of injury and form. Up forward there’s Riewoldt, Vickery, Griffiths and McBean but outside that there isn’t much else so if those guys cop an injury or two they can get exposed. There’s a young guy named Reece McKenzie on the list who can be a key position player but he only had his first year last year.

A clever little small forward in the mould of Hawthorn’s Paul Puopolo or Cyril Rioli is also needed to complement the forward line because they do have a lot of similar types, the high half forwards.

They are a reasonable kicking side and they do most of their damage from the backline by setting up and using the skills of Rance, Houli and now Yarran, which will be an even bigger strength next season.

WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP

From a playing point of view the whole list is under the pump, they need to start delivering. That pressure falls mostly onto the shoulders of the leadership group — Cotchin, Deledio, Maric, Riewoldt, Chaplin — these are the guys who should be delivering in the big games and in the big moments in September. But at the end of the day, the majority of players who run out onto the field for Richmond week in, week out have been around for a number of years and should be stepping up when it matters. Martin is critical and 2015 was probably his best and most consistent year but he needs to keep getting better. Conca has had his injury problems so he needs to get himself right and start delivering on the talent that made the Tigers pick him at No. 6 in 2010.


WHO SHOULD GO

Chris Newman, Nathan Foley, Ricky Petterd and Chris Knights have retired and Matt McDonough and Matt Arnot have been delisted already and I’d say they won’t make any more changes, especially in this draft. A lot of the guys on the list are either critical to the premiership tilt or haven’t been exposed enough yet to make a call.

CRYSTAL BALL

Will they grab the opportunity? In 2016 the first goal for Richmond is making the top four. Then it’s about making the most of the opportunities that present from there. This is a season that is very important for them — they can gain a lot of confidence from season 2016 if they can chalk up wins from Round 1. If they can’t get victories on the board early, the group is one that could lose belief in itself.

Getting off to a good start is something they haven’t been able to do but next year being 3 and 5 after Round 8 or 4 and 4 or even 5 and 3 won’t cut it. A good start to the season creates that belief but a poor start generates pressure and that builds and builds heading into the finals. They can’t keep playing catch up.

September action is a non-negotiable for the next three years.



Gary Buckenara helped build Hawthorn’s three-peat premiership list and now he runs a rule over club lists in an exclusive column for the Herald Sun.

Buckenara was a major part of Hawthorn’s recruiting team between 2004-2015 and was responsible for bringing Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Jordan Lewis to the Hawks in 2004 when he was the Hawks’ sole fulltime recruiter.

http://www.themercury.com.au/richmond-list-analysis-tigers-premiership-window-is-open/story-fnj3twbb-1227582335018

[tony_montana]

pretty good summation for mine - feel like we're at the crossroads and need to take the next step NOW.

Won't be easy however - will be a fight to make finals let alone top 4, always need some luck with injuries and draw

[yellowandback]

It's hard to argue with most of that article.
I'd still argue that that chunk of players 24-28 yo are going to both improve and mature next year which should mean they will take on the brunt of improvement of the total team.
I still see us as having scope to finish 5-8th with a top 4 spot with a dollop of luck.
It will be important to start bringing in the 3-5 year players on our list as the rejuvenation really needs to start from next year:-
McBean, Menadue, Ellis, Lennon, McIntosh and Vlastuin need more responsibility as we need to find out if they are going to be the next generation of leaders or influential players at the club.
Personally I think players like Gordon, Astbury, Morris, Lloyd, Hampson and even Elton, Conca & potentially Batchelor are list clogging to some extent and so drafting young players in the draft and in rookie drafts will be importwnt to replace them in the next season or two.

[mightytiges]

MT's List Analysis - update 01/11/2015

Notes:
* Most of our nine retirements/delistings came from our 23+ year old prime and oldies groups (exceptions: Arnot & McDonough)
* No KPPs/rucks were cut.
* All retirees/delistees were small and midsized midfielder & flanker types. Tallest was Dea (187cm).
* Prime age group is smaller but those cut had no-to-little gametime in 2015.
* Expect us to go small with our first pick. Either another inside/outside midfielder or a small forward.


Age - as of April 2016 (start of the season)

30: Maric (154), Chaplin (207)
-------------------------------------------
29: Deledio (232)
28: Grigg (147), Hampson (78 )
27: Edwards (168 ), Houli (137), Morris (78 ), Riewoldt (180)
26: Cotchin (153), Lloyd (20), Rance (130)
25: Astbury (41), Hunt (86), Vickery (102), Yarran (119)
24: Batchelor (75), Griffiths (48 ), Grimes (63), Lambert (13), Martin (131), Miles (46), Moore (55)
23: Conca (74), Elton (2)
-------------------------------------------
22: B.Ellis (88), McIntosh (23), Townsend (28 ), Vlastuin (61)
21: McBean (2)
20: Drummond (1), Lennon (16), McKenzie (-), Short# (-), Soldo# (-)
19: Butler (-), C.Ellis (6), Menadue (5), Castagna# (-)
18: new draftees ....

Oldies: 2 (+1 from 2014)
Prime: 23  (-4)
Youth: 14 + new draftees (-1) .... we have 2 national draft and 3 rookie draft picks to come.


Experience

200+ games:  2 (no change from 2014)
150-199:       4 (-)
100-149:       6 (-2)
50-99:          9 (+1)
25-49:          4 (-1)
1-25:            9 (+2)
Yet to debut:  5 + new draftees (-5)  .... we have 2 national draft and 3 rookie draft picks to come.


Height (cm)

Rucks       (200+):     6 - Soldo# (204), McBean* (202), Hampson (201), Griffiths (200), Maric (200), Vickery (200)

Big KPPs    (195-199):  5 - Elton (197), McKenzie (197), Astbury (195), Riewoldt (195), Chaplin (195)

KPPs        (191-194):  3 - Rance (194), Grimes (193), McIntosh** (192)

Tall Mids   (186-190):  9 - Grigg (190), Moore (189), Batchelor (188 ), Deledio (188 ), Lennon (188 ), Martin (187), Townsend (187), Vlastuin (187), Menadue (187)

Mids        (181-185): 10 - Conca (185), Cotchin (185), Morris (185), C.Ellis (184), Hunt (184), Butler (182), Drummond (182), Edwards (182), B.Ellis (181), Castagna# (181)

Smalls      (sub 180):  6 - Houli (180), Lloyd (180), Yarran (180), Miles (179), Lambert (178 ), Short# (177)

*   more a key forward.
** more a utility type.


Weight (kg)

100+:   6 - Hampson (106), McKenzie (104), Soldo# (104), Maric (102), Griffiths (102), Elton (100)

95-99:  4 - Vickery (98 ), Chaplin (97), Rance (96), Astbury (95)

90-94:  3 - McBean (93), Riewoldt (92), Martin (90)

85-89:  9 - Deledio (89), Grimes (89), McIntosh (89), Townsend (89), Batchelor (88 ), Moore (87), Grigg (86), Vlastuin (86), Drummond (86)

80-84: 10 - Cotchin (85), Houli (84), B.Ellis (84), Conca (83), Lloyd (83), Morris (83), Yarran (83), Edwards (81), Butler (80), Miles (80)

sub80:  7 - Hunt (78 ), Castagna# (78 ), Lennon (77), C.Ellis (75), Lambert (75), Short# (72), Menadue (69)


Positions (- cut, + added)

Small/medium defenders:  Houli, Morris, Vlastuin, Batchelor, Drummond (-2)

Tall defenders: Rance, Grimes, Chaplin, Astbury (0)

Inside Midfielders: Miles, Townsend (-2, +1)

Inside/outside mids: Cotchin, Martin, Edwards, Grigg, Lambert, C.Ellis, Moore (-1, +1)

Outside Midfielders: Deledio, B.Ellis, Conca, Hunt, Menadue (0)

Small/medium forwards: Lennon, Lloyd, Butler (-3)

Tall forwards: Riewoldt, Vickery, Griffiths, McBean, McKenzie (0)

Rucks: Maric, Hampson, Soldo# (0)

Swingmen: Elton, McIntosh, Yarran (-1, +1)

[Stalin]

good man mt

[mightytiges]

I forgot to say I've included Andrew Moore in the list for 2016 as he's a virtual certainty to be picked up by us as a DFA.

Our number of prime age (23+ y.o.) players has actually fallen but most of those gone didn't play this year so we won't notice their absence in 2016. It shows we'll need a number of our younger (22 and under) players to step up. Especially, as Hampson, Morris, Lloyd and Elton can't be relied upon despite being in the "prime" age group.

[Yeahright]

Weight (kg)

sub80:  7 - Hunt (78 ), Castagna# (78 ), Lennon (77), C.Ellis (75), Lambert (75), Short# (72), Menadue (69)

Spot the odd one out

[Diocletian]

Hunt  - the others are all footballers.

[Jacosh]

Hunt  - the others are all footballers.

[(•))(©™]

Hasn't it been ajar for some 2-3 years now......except they keep blowing their finals performances ??

Personally I find all this statistical rubbish about as explanatory as a crappy excuse.

Club has failed AT a the highest level and most crucial time of season repeatedly.

Now couple that with a politically correct environment and you may as well by some fly wire screens.

This club ain't winning a flag in the next ten years.
Deal with it.

[Yeahright]

This club ain't winning a flag in the next ten years.
Deal with it.

I think most of us are dealing with our slim chances better than you are. It's seemed to destroy you mentally and emotionally

[🏅Dooks]

This club ain't winning a flag in the next ten years.
Deal with it.

I think most of us are dealing with our slim chances better than you are. It's seemed to destroy you mentally and emotionally

How do you take from  posts like these which paint a realistic picture of the future, that the poster is mentally and emotionally destroyed?

If anything, embracing the reality is a more mentally and emotionally mature approach.

[YellowandBlackBlood]

Well Dooks this is just football. It isn't anything more than a sport. It doesn't reflect life's realities. As such you can't apply life's rules here. It is an irrational emotional rollercoaster barracking for a team. That is why we are all so passionate for our club. We all hang out for hope. Hope that we will win a final and maybe even a GF.
If you really don't think we are a chance in the next 10 to 15 years, why bother posting on these boards? Just walk away with your "reality" and be happy with it.
The rest of us will hold out our unrealistic hopes for some success.

[🏅Dooks]

Lol life's rules

Anyway, I don't think we are a chance if things stay the same but as you say, we all still love the club and that's why the realists post on such forums. We hold out hope that at some stage the club shakes off all these incompetent players and personell and makes better decisions. but they probably wont.

In the meantime, the psychology is amazing re the delusion that some supporters believe. I care for the truth. Be mature people.

Maybe in decades, we see a premiership before we die

[(•))(©™]

This club ain't winning a flag in the next ten years.
Deal with it.

I think most of us are dealing with our slim chances better than you are. It's seemed to destroy you mentally and emotionally

How do you take from  posts like these which paint a realistic picture of the future, that the poster is mentally and emotionally destroyed?

If anything, embracing the reality is a more mentally and emotionally mature approach.

It would be different if the lesser clubs hadn't made a habit of overtaking RIchmond in the developmental stakes and surpassing them in a shorter time.

Perhaps, if I were to be less cynical and on a longshot backed one flag, that's still only two flags in 45 years.

See Hawthorn, Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney for real blueprints of success.