First-round draft picks critical to building premiership teams ... (H-Sun)

[one-eyed]

First-round draft picks critical to building premiership teams, history suggests

KATE SALEMME, CHRIS VERNUCCIO
Herald Sun
November 14, 2015


THERE is hope for long-suffering Carlton, Richmond and Melbourne fans.

They have been starved of premiership success for so long - Carlton the only club of the three to have won a flag in the AFL era and that was back in 1995.

But if the recent trade period is anything to go by, based on history the Blues, Tigers and Demons are well on their way to that elusive premiership.

But that trio will have Collingwood - not to mention GWS and Gold Coast - to contend with. The Pies have been aggressive in stockpiling top picks and trading for players who were first-round selections in past drafts.

Richmond and Melbourne have been doing the same, and Carlton has finally come to the party with a dramatic list overhaul under a new coach and list boss during this year’s free agency/player exchange period.

An analysis of every premiership team since 2005 highlights how crucial first-round draftees are to achieving the ultimate glory and proves this startegy can work.
 
Look no further than Hawthorn, whose three-peat teams contained 10, nine and 11 of them.

Of those players four of them were acquired from other clubs - Shaun Burgoyne, Ben McEvoy, David Hale and James Frawley - and shrewd trading helped deliver Luke Hodge.

Even the Hawks’ 2008 premiership team had 10 first-round players.

Premiership hero and captain Luke Hodge was drafted by the Hawks after they traded Trent Croad and Luke McPharlin to Fremantle for draft picks.

Geelong’s 2009 and 2011 flag sides had eight first-rounders, same with Collingwood’s 2010 premiership unit.

There are some exceptions. Sydney’s 2012 flag team had just three first-round players and West Coast’s 2006 side had only four.

Collingwood already has 10 first-round draft picks on its list - Scott Pendlebury, Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Travis Varcoe, Steele Sidebottom, Darcy Moore, Taylor Adams, Matthew Scharenberg, Brodie Grundy and Jordan De Goey - and this year added a couple more.

The Magpies traded for gun Giants midfielder Adam Treloar, who was touted as a top pick in his draft year before being pre-selected as part of GWS’ concessions and also picked up a former No. 7 pick in James Aish.

Carlton stockpiled top draft choices in November 24’s national draft (holding pick Nos. 1, 8 and 19) and traded in a number of former first-round picks — Lachie Plowman (former No. 3), Liam Sumner (former No. 10), Jed Lamb (former No. 21) — as part of its list rebuild.

Those players add to top picks Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer, Dale Thomas, Andrew Walker, Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Blaine Boekhorst and Kristian Jakcsh who are already on the list.

Richmond targeted and got Chris Yarran, a former No. 6 pick and Andrew Moore, a former No. 9 to add to Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio, Dustin Martin, Brandon Ellis, Jack Riewoldt, Alex Rance, Ty Vickery, Reece Conca, Nick Vlastuin, Ben Lennon and Corey Ellis — all top picks.

Melbourne lost Jimmy Toumpas, a former pick No. 5 but armed themselves with pick Nos. 3 and 7 and got Ben Kennedy, a former pick 19 and Jake Melksham, a former pick 10.

Add them to Angus Brayshaw, Christian Petracca, Jack Watts, Christian Salem, Jack Trengove, Dom Tyson and Jack Grimes ... and Jesse Hogan who would have been a top pick had he not been part of the complicated mini-draft in 2012.

Time will tell whether these clubs are on the right path to success.

Amassing high-end draft picks and talent are one thing, securing the right players another.

But the premiership teams since 2005 also demonstrated the importance of nailing late selections, including rookies as Collingwood showed in 2010, when it won the Grand Final replay with seven former rookies.


HOW PREMIERSHIP TEAMS SINCE 2005 WERE MADE


SYDNEY (2005)

1st round — 5 (Jared Crouch, Craig Bolton, Barry Hall*, Jude Bolton, Nic Fosdike)

2nd round — 3 (Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Nick Davis*, Luke Ablett)

3rd round — 2 (Adam Goodes, Michael O’Loughlin)

4th round — 3 (Amon Buchanan, Ryan O’Keefe, Adam Schneider)

5th round — 1 (Paul Williams*)

Rookies — 3 (Darren Jolly*, Brett Kirk, Paul Bevan)

Father-son — 1 (Sean Dempster)

Internation rookies — 1 (Tadhg Kennelly)

Zone selection — 3 (Leo Barry, Ben Mathews, Jason Ball**)

*Trade acquisition

**Trade acquisition, originally a West Coast zone selection


WEST COAST (2006)

1st round — 4 (Darren Glass, Beau Waters, Chris Judd, Drew Banfield)

2nd round — 8 (Adam Hunter, Daniel Chick*, Tyson Stenglein*, Rowan Jones, Daniel Kerr, Sam Butler, Steven Armstrong**, Mark Seaby)

3rd round — 2 (Michael Braun, Ashley Hansen)

4th round — 2 (Adam Selwood, Andew Embley)

Rookies — 4 (Brett Jones, Chad Fletcher, Quinten Lynch, Dean Cox)

Father-son — 1 (Ben Cousins)

Zone selection — (David Wirrpanda)

*Trade acquisition

**Drafted after being delisted by Melbourne



GEELONG (2007)

1st round — 6 (Andrew Mackie, Joel Corey, James Kelly, Tarvis Varcoe, Joel Selwood, Brad Ottens)

2nd round — 3 (Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman, David Wojcinski)

3rd round — 5 (Darren Milburn, Corey Enright, Cameron Ling, Cameron Mooney, Josh Hunt)

4th round — 1 (Mathew Stokes)

Rookies — 2 (Shannon Byrnes, Max Rooke)

Father-son — 3 (Matthew Scarlett, Gary Ablett, Nathan Ablett)

Zone selection — 1 (Tom Harley*)

*Trade acquisition


HAWTHORN (2008)

1st round — 10 (Luke Hodge, Jarryd Roughead, Trent Croad*, Grant Birchall, Rick Ladson, Jordan Lewis, Lance Franklin, Cyril Rioli, Shane Crawford, Xavier Ellis)

2nd round — 4 (Stephen Gilham, Brent Guerra**, Campbell Brown, Brent Renouf)

3rd round — 2 (Sam Mitchell, Mark Williams)

4th round — 1 (Chance Bateman)

Rookies — 4 (Clinton Young, Michael Osborne, Robert Campbell, Brad Sewell)

Father-son — 0

Zone selection — 1 (Stuart Dew^)

*Trade acquisition

**Drafted by Hawthorn in pre-season draft after Guerra was delisted from St Kilda, who traded him in from Port Adelaide

^Picked up in the national draft after coming out of retirement


GEELONG (2009)

1st round — 8 (Andrew Mackie, Harry Taylor, Joel Corey, James Kelly, Jimmy Bartel, Travis Varcoe, Joel Selwood, Brad Ottens)

2nd round — 3 (Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman, David Wojcinski)

3rd round — 4 (Darren Milburn, Corey Enright, Cameron Ling, Cameron Mooney)

4th round — 0

Rookies — 2 (Shannon Byrnes, Max Rooke)

Father-son — 4 (Matthew Scarlett, Tom Hawkins, Gary Ablett, Mark Blake)

Zone selection — 1 (Tom Harley*)

*Trade acquisition



COLLINGWOOD (2010)

1st round — 8 (Alan Didak, Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Luke Ball*, Steele Sidebottom, Dale Thomas, Scott Pendlebury, Leigh Brown^)

2nd round — 2 (Dayne Beams, Chris Dawes)

3rd round — 0

4th round — 2 (Dane Swan, Tyson Goldsack)

5th round — 1 (Ben Johnson)

Rookies — 7 (Nick Maxwell, Brent Macaffer, Jarryd Blair, Darren Jolly**, Harry O’Brien, Alan Toovey, Sharrod Wellingham)

Father-son — 2 (Travis Cloke, Heath Shaw)

*Drafted by Collingwood in national draft after quitting St Kilda following failed trade to Pies

**Trade acquisition

^Drafted by Collingwood in national draft after being delisted by North Melbourne


GEELONG (2011)

1st round — 8 (Joel Selwood, Harry Taylor, Jimmy Bartel, Andrew Mackie, Travis Varcoe, Brad Ottens*, James Kelly, Joel Corey)

2nd round — 5 (Steve Johnson, David Wojcinski, Trent West, Paul Chapman, Mitch Duncan)

3rd round — 3 (Cameron Ling, Corey Enright, Allen Christensen)

4th round — 1 (Mathew Stokes)

5th round — 1 (James Podsiadly**)

Rookies — 1 (Tom Lonergan)

Father-son — 2 (Matthew Scarlett, Tom Hawkins)

*Trade acquisition

**Drafted by Geelong many years after being delisted by both Essendon (who originally picked him up in the fifth round) and Collingwood


SYDNEY (2012)

1st round — 3 (Lewis Jetta, Jarrad McVeigh, Jude Bolton)

2nd round — 4 (Ted Richards*, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Lewis Roberts-Thompson)

3rd round — 4 (Adam Goodes, Sam Reid, Alex Johnson, Mitch Morton*)

4th round — 3 (Shane Mumford*, Ryan O’Keefe, Craig Bird)

5th round — 1 (Nick Malceski)

Rookies — 4 (Heath Grundy, Marty Mattner*, Kieren Jack, Nick Smith)

International rookies — 1 (Mike Pyke)

Father-son — 2 (Josh Kennedy**, Rhyce Shaw**)

*Trade acquisition

**Trade acquisition after both Kennedy and Shaw were father-son selections at their previous clubs, Hawthorn and Collingwood


HAWTHORN (2013)

1st round — 10 (Luke Hodge, Jarryd Roughead, Shaun Burgoyne*, Lance Franklin, Grant Birchall, Cyril Rioli, Isaac Smith, Jordan Lewis, David Hale*, Max Bailey)

2nd round — 4 (Brent Guerra**, Liam Shiels, Jack Gunston*, Bradley Hill)

3rd round — 2 (Sam Mitchell, Ben Stratton)

4th round — 1 (Paul Puopolo)

5th round — 1 (Brian Lake*)

Rookies — 4 (Josh Gibson*, Luke Breust, Brad Sewell, Jonathan Simpkin#)

Father-son — 0

*Trade acquisition

**Drafted via pre-season draft after being delisted by St Kilda. Originally drafted by Port Adelaide

#Signed as delisted free agent after being cut by Geelong. Originally drafted by Sydney


HAWTHORN (2014)

1st round — 9 (Luke Hodge, Jarryd Roughead, Shaun Burgoyne*, Grant Birchall, Cyril Rioli, Isaac Smith, Jordan Lewis, David Hale*, Ben McEvoy*)

2nd round — 4 (Liam Shiels, Jack Gunston*, Bradley Hill, Matt Spangher*)

3rd round — 2 (Sam Mitchell, Ben Stratton)

4th round — 1 (Paul Puopolo)

5th round — 2 (Brian Lake*, Taylor Duryea)

Rookies — 3 (Josh Gibson*, Luke Breust, Matt Suckling)

Father-son — 1 (Will Langford)

*Trade acquisition


HAWTHORN (2015)

1st round — 11 (Luke Hodge, Jarryd Roughead, Shaun Burgoyne*, Grant Birchall, Cyril Rioli, Isaac Smith, Jordan Lewis, David Hale*, Ben McEvoy*, James Frawley**, Ryan Schoenmakers)

2nd round — 3 (Liam Shiels, Jack Gunston*, Bradley Hill)

3rd round — 2 (Sam Mitchell, Ben Stratton)

4th round — 1 (Paul Puopolo)

5th round — 2 (Brian Lake*, Taylor Duryea)

Rookies — 3 (Josh Gibson*, Luke Breust, Matt Suckling)

Father-son — 0

*Trade acquisition

**Signed as a free agent from Melbourne

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/firstround-draft-picks-critical-to-building-premiership-teams-history-suggests/news-story/043762cd04e89f6e1f103f5291679024

[the claw]

Nearly every side would have 10 or 12 1st round zone or ps  picks on their lists.
This year Carlton had 14 1st round picks, essendon 15  where did it get them.Carlton have  lost 5 of them either thru trade retirement or delisting.

Its a nothing article that focuses on one small part of recruiting ignoring all else.

Premierships are built around lots of things having enough depth and quality is a key but it does not matter where you get your quality players from.Having first round picks does not automatically mean you have quality afl players.

One thing there is those clubs when aquireing older players, they  have mainly targeted proven players.

[Andyy]

What a load of BS.

Of course first round picks are essential, but if this article proves anything then to me it says you need to nail your picks AFTER THE FIRST ROUND.

Look at all those clubs 3rd round, 4th round and rookie listed players! Nailing a first round pick is 100% expected these days. Nailing deep picks is what makes the actual difference.

Goodes, O'Loughlin, O'Keefe, Jolly, Kirk, Braun, Selwood, Embley, Lynch, Cox, Milburn, Mooney, Enright, Ling, Hunt, Stokes, Rooke, Mitchell, Williams, Sewell, Dew, Swan, Goldsack, Maxwell, Macaffer, Blair, O’Brien, Toovey, Wellingham, Christensen, Podsiadly, Lonergan, Reid, Mumford, Malceski, Grundy, Jack, Pyke, Stratton, Puopolo, Breust, Duryea, Suckling, Simpkin.

All were taken between round 3 and the rookie draft. All of them would have been in our best 22 for the last decade.

[Penelope]

where do you draw you conclusions from Andy?

giving of a list of players like that and then drawing that conclusion is akin to listing the tatslotto winners of the last 12 months and then saying that proves tatslotto is a good way to may money.

100% for first round draft picks?

I dont think so.

about 60% of draft picks 1-20 will go on to play 100 games, only 50% will do so for the club that originally drafted them.

The Hawthorn premiership teams of the last 3 years contained 9 draft picks taken 1-20. From 2004-2012, 8 of 11 sub 21 draft picks played in one or more of the last three premiership teams, and 1 more in the 2008 premiership team. that is their foundation.

depending on whether you use the 100 career games or 100 games with their original club as a comparasion, hawthoren either were on par or well under par with their 21+ picks.

Claw is right on the money when he says that it is a combination of drafting and trading, something this article does not take into account.

the overall draft success average for the league is either 36% or 29%, depending on your criteria.

The hawks gave up 12 draft picks in trading for 7 premiership players. way above the success rate of utilising the draft picks yourself. Some of these 12 were actually downgrades ( 1 upgrade) as well.

the article is partially right, the foundation for success is in your sub 21 picks, but you need to at least bat to average with your other picks and probably more importantly, trade astutely



 

[tdy]

Was it Benny Gale of Hardwick who said there are many strategies but no one true way. You just have to do whatever you do really well.  I think Geelongs model is sound draft for talent and develop but clearly Hawthorns is too.