Channel 9 might be back in the picture
Damian Barrett
Herald-Sun
October 05, 2006 12:00am
TEN months -- to the day -- have passed since Channels 7 and 10 secured the 2007-11 AFL TV contract.
Arguably, they have less idea now than they did then about how matches will be broadcast next year.
Their AFL involvement is messy, becoming messier with every day of delay, and certain football people are edgy.
Depending on who one speaks with, the matching by Seven and Ten of the $780 million Channel 9-Foxtel bid will be proven a masterstroke or a disaster.
There are suggestions by TV executives that Seven and Ten, if they choose to broadcast all eight weekly matches, will share losses up to $45 million a year.
There is a thought held by some key AFL club officials that the uncertainty has caused a delay in the release of the 2007 fixture.
Then there is the doozy. As nigh-impossible as it sounds, talk has spread in the past week -- particularly from the mouths of some corporates at the Grand Final on Saturday -- that Nine may yet play a role in the broadcasting of football next year.
"I don't think that is going to happen," AFL chief executive Andrew Demetriou said yesterday.
"I think that is a million-to-one chance."
Nine boss Eddie McGuire said: "We haven't spoken with them (Seven and Ten). I don't know where they are at."
Demetriou, who has long denied the Seven-Ten issue is delaying the release of the 2007 fixture, said yesterday he was not pressuring the networks for a quick resolution.
But it is known that he and others at AFL House and in football are desperate to know how their games are to be broadcast next year.
If forced to cover all eight matches, Seven and Ten have three major problems.
One: meeting the AFL requirement of broadcasting matches live, or near live, into the northern states, particularly on Friday nights against Nine, which will be televising a rugby league double-header.
Two: the watering down of advertising dollars when they go head-to-head against each other in certain timeslots, mainly Saturday nights.
Three: production costs, which some in the industry estimate to be up to $1.5 million a game.
Channel 9 executives have become quite excited about the problems fronting Seven and Ten with AFL.
As Australia's biggest media buyer Harold Mitchell said yesterday: "They (Seven and Ten) say they are prepared to (broadcast all eight games), though they have been very careful.
"And I suspect they would rather that doesn't happen because while AFL is strong in the southern states, it is unlikely they would bring the really big numbers they would want on each channel.
"Overall, the AFL figures would look very good. But that might make Nine stronger as a result, being the alternative."
Foxtel has offered Seven-Ten about $21 million for three games a week from next year, and about $45 million for four matches.
The pay-TV operator has claimed those figures were the same as per its involvement with the Nine bid. Seven and Ten are convinced they are significantly less and have rejected them.
"I wouldn't be writing it as a disaster, that they (Seven and Ten) would be losing $40 million (a year), because that isn't the case," Mitchell said.
"There are a number of alternatives, including solving this.
"It is as, if not more, important to Foxtel as it is to Seven and Ten.
"The top 40 programs on Foxtel, 39 of them are sports programs.
"That's how they sell subscriptions."
The most likely outcome for AFL TV in 2007 remains a Seven-Ten-Foxtel mix.
Perhaps Nine, a 25 per cent shareholder in Foxtel, will be there, too, having brought Foxtel to the Seven-Ten negotiating table.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20526691-11088,00.html