Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls (East Perth)
188/75 bottom-age right foot (has other foot if necessary) outsidish mid / flanker
*STYLE LIKE: Rob Murphy
*MY RANKING (not meant to reflect appropriate draft pick to use): 5
*PROBABILITY OF AFL CAREER: Definite. Ready year 2.
- Within an AFL team list, could prove capable of SUSTAINING a ranking of 5-10.
*HURT FACTORS (Offensive/Defensive/Negative): M-H / M / L
*TRADEMARK:
- Casually pluck the ball out of the air or cleanly off the turf, then an even more effortless (no, make that "cocky") sell-the-dummy, then skim the turf for 30m then accurate fluent kick to a well spotted target.
*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:
- Oakley-Nicholls is not a top 5 pick, or even top 10, in a typical year's draft. This year is as light on for obvious top 10 quality as 2000 but at least 2000 had Riewoldt, Didak and Kos who looked to be the clear top 3. I can't see Oakley-Nicholls going top 5 even this year but I rank him at 5 on the basis that:-
1. He has indicated an X-factor upside comparable with Ryder, Varcoe, etc but has the advantage that we have seen O-N's form this year offer greater concrete evidence. Any concerns re any disappointment with O-N not having been more consistent (eg not having played many genuine 4-quarter games) can also be levelled at those others with supposed X-factor upside who follow him in my rankings.
2. He has the tricks to turn a game in one quarter. He is genuinely classy. Clean, silky with a bit of magic.
3. No one after him in my rankings would appear to represent a better all-round package of attributes. Jarrad is a great height for a wing/flank, among other possibilities down the track. He also appears to have a reach advantage (unconfirmed). Reliable kick with high hurt factor. Lightning quick. Can take a huge grab. Excellent evasion. Happy to get his own ball. "Never" flustered. Plays in a manner that suggests he will thrive on AFL centre stage once he has settled in.
4. Only about 3 of the next 15 players in my rankings are similarly reliable all round kicks and probably none of those 3 are quite as good.
5. Despite his speed and silkiness, he wins much more than his share of his own ball - in one-in-one physical tussle contests or inside traffic etc. He is no downhill-skier or stranger to hardball gets or to displays of determination/desperation.
- From rural WA but, on-field, always looks self-assured and never seems flustered. One of those players, regardless of age, who just "moves" like an AFL player of class. I first liked him from the '04 U16 Champs. Back then, he was trying to manage problems with his left knee but he really looked "AFL".
If you had pick 5 and your next pick was beyond about pick 10, I think O-N is worth pick 5 thaer than taking the risk of him slipping through, even though that is shorter than his market value. I'm very confident of his AFL future.
*DISPOSAL:
(see above)
- U18 Champs stats were not representative of his kicking's usual accuracy or hurt factor. I would describe him as an "almost routinely excellent" kick - accuracy, hurt, power. Even on the run (as he often is). Economical kicking style.
- Can kick a big goal but is not in the "reliable around goals" class.
- His handballing is good but, in relative terms, possibly not quite as reliable as his kicking.
- Mix of kicks to feeds varies a lot, game by game.
*DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:
(see above)
- Generally a good decision-maker. Generally displays poise and looks for options, even on the run.
- Good vision but not always good awareness.
- Uses his body well.
- His average stats are quite healthy and he has had some big games. However it bothers me, just a little, that he doesn't ROUTINELY get more of the pill. He gets his share when at the play but I suspect he needs coaching in where and when to run in order to be in the action more often. Providing a kid is coachable (can listen, understand and implement) I never get overly concerned about kids who tend to be in the wrong places around the ground at 17-18yo. Oakley-Nicholls seems to read the play well enough, especially when he finds himself fairly handy to it. Most kids should be able to improve their positioning if they get the appropriate "match scenario simulation and decision-making dry runs" at their AFL club.
- Importantly, he needs to demand the ball much more often and with more purpose. With his leg-speed he should much more often be running past to offer himself as a potential 80-90m option. Ditto for being more verbally demanding when in good position to have the ball delivered to him.
- Outstanding evasion. Routinely effective, excellent sidestep on the run.
*HANDS:
(see above)
- Routinely clean - ground or waist, on the run or static, under pressure or not.
*OVERHEAD MARKING:
- Very capable and reliable overhead, regardless of pressure. Usually clean hands, usually good judgement, holds his ground. Wins much more than his share of 50/50 contests. I saw him drop a sitter in one WAFL game but that's the only terrible result I can recall.
- He can take the big grab over the back of the pack but he arguably takes more from in front or mid-pack.
*ATHLETICISM:
(see above)
- Terrific athletic package.
- Lightning quick. He would be as quick as anyone in this draft. That's how he looks on-field. His DC times reflect that. 5m time among the top 3% ever and the further they go (over a sprint distance) the more elite his times (top 1% of all times over 20m).
- Offensive agility is excellent. Recovery agility disappointing at times.
- I'm still not sure what to make of Jarrad's leap. There are times when he takes some big grabs yet at other times he seems to struggle for leap. I just haven't been able to identify a pattern. Perhaps in certain body on body situations he waits a bit long to jump and finds the opponent(s) has already taken his vertical pathway, or something like that (?), or the cause may even just be injury at the time.
- Very skinny but looks to have a frame that will fill out OK. His game is such that it is not vital to add more than about 7kg. (Would be desirable though).
- Endurance query at the moment. Died in the bum late in various games this year and somewhat below average beep would either support this (no cause for long-term concern) or suggest he doesn't push himself out fully at this stage..
*INTENSITY, ETHIC:
(see above)
- Intensity is generally good except that he often seems unaccountable to his own opponent.. That bothers me in itself but O-N is no less accountable than many/most other similar-role contenders for 1st or 2nd (or even 3rd) round picks this year.
- For his "flashy" type, his "at the scene" intensity is surprisingly quite consistently good - Attack on ball, attack on man, ratio of 50/50 contests won, genuine desperation (including smothers etc).
- Tackling effectiveness needs improvement.
*CONSISTENCY:
- Not that consistent statistically. He had at least one 30+ disposals game this year and a couple high 20s but he is usually around the low-mid teens.
- I would say his effort level is pretty consistent. He is though, one of those players who, when hot, can be very hot. He can have a quiet quarter but then have (say) 15 minutes where he is on-fire.
*AFL VERSATILITY:
(see above)
- Outside mid ("wing") suits ideally but there are other roles at AFL where he could inflict serious damage.
- If he can adopt a more accountable mentality, he could be dynamite running off/through half-back. (That is the role I would like ti see him strat out in).
- He also shows some talent inside traffic so perhaps an onball role down the track (but he is a long way off that, endurance-wise).
- There is probably no reason why he couldn't handle AFL HFF or FP. However, I prefer him in a role in which he can see the play unfold essentially in his flight path and exploit his superior pace, especially direct, so that his main value is as a regularly 80-90m play-breaker.
*CSI (COMPARATIVE SCOPE for IMPROVEMENT):
- Probably normal.
*QUERY:
- Endurance.
*SOME STATS:
- '05 WAFL Colts:
Avg approx 17disposals (incl 3 marks) in his 15 Colts games. Also played 2 Seniors games.
- Stats summary '05 U18 Champs:
Averaged 7 disposals and 2.3 marks in his 3 games. (Best TD 12).
Kicks per 20 disp: 15.
Kicks long vs short: 3-9 (3 long per 10 kicks).
Ineffective kicks: 4/17 (2.4 per 10 kicks), incl 2 clangers (1.2 per 10 kicks).
Ineffective handballs: 3/5 (6.0 per 10 handballs), incl 1 clangers (2.0 per 10 handballs).
Ineffective disposals: 7/22 (6.4 per 20 disp), incl 3 clangers (2.7 per 20 disp).
HandBall Receives: 2/22 (2 per 20 disp).
Hardball gets: 2/22 (2 per 20 disp).
S.P. clearances: 2/22 (2 per 20 disp), incl 0 BU (0 per 20 disp), incl 2 CBC (2 per 20 disp).
Tackles: 4 (Avg 1.3 per game).
Marks: 7 (6 per 20 disp), incl 2 contested (2.9 per 10 marks).
*OTHER STUFF:
- Added to '05 U18 trial squad. DOB orig listed as 2/9/88 but should be 9/2/88.
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