Travis Casserley (Swan Districts)
187/76 mid-age right foot (has other foot if necessary) HBF/wing.
*STYLE LIKE: Jordan McMahon
*MY RANKING (not meant to reflect appropriate draft pick to use): 22
*PROBABILITY OF AFL CAREER: Possible. Ready year 3.
- Within an AFL team list, could prove capable of SUSTAINING a ranking of 5-15.
*HURT FACTORS (Offensive/Defensive/Negative): M / L-M / L-M
*TRADEMARK:
- Clean scoop under little/no pressure on the run, then dash over 30m at impressive speed, then a lovely looking direct kick for depth, possibly without first having looked for best option.
- Hard running (either direction) - perhaps chasing down an opponent at impressive closing speed but finishing with a very non-physical excuse for a tackle.
- Screamer.
*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:
- Travis is a confidence player (a la Ryan Murphy at the same age). There are 2 Travis Casserleys.
One is serious AFL material - chases, takes big clean grabs, attacks the ball, is clean, direct and purposeful. The other is at the opposite extreme, to the point of being insipid.
He can be one player or the other, week by week, and he can be both players within the same game. eg In a Reserves match against Claremont late '05, most of his "efforts" had been insipid most of the first 3 quarters. His team were 11 points up at 3/4 time in a very low-scoring game. During the last quarter, Claremont looked like overpowering his team, the game was in the balance, and his team were virtually crying out for someone else to stamp themselves on the game. Casserley did, attacking marking contests he was spectating at earlier in the game, attacking other balls and chasing opponents he was uncommitted towards earlier. Lifted himself and the team over line and, in the end, it was fitting that it was Casserley who set up the winning goal with a purposeful attacking get, dash and long kick to position right on the siren. Had had about 7 disposals until Q4 and picked up another 7, mainly quality, in Q4. He carried that last quarter form into the next week, earning Senior selection the week after. The week after that, Casserley came on just before 1/4 time and played a terrific Seniors game and looked every inch a serious AFL prospect, routinely running hard both ways with a frenetic work-rate that had you virtually applauding (a la Ryan Jackson in a TAC final this year).
That's the problem when you draft Travis. You are getting two players for the price of one. One will be capable of winning and/or turning AFL matches for you. The other will make you cringe at times even if at VFL reserves level or similar.
With some kids, realising their projected upside is mainly a function of things like bulking up, improving their kicking, etc. With Casserley, I suspect it is mainly about radically changing his mindset. I'm a great believer in "conditioning of the mind" (which for some players is more important than conditioning their bodies) and the success that is possible (!) from it. However, for every Rhyce Shaw who manage to significantly improve their mindset, there are many more who don't. In particular, U18 kids with on-field intensity issues, especially those who play an outside style, very often continue to disappoint at AFL level, at least for an unreasonably long time (eg Pettifer, Fiora, Cupido, Tim Walsh, Sam Power, Jay Shultz, Llane Spaanderman, etc). (I'm not talking about off-field ethic or character test. Any list of names like the above would include some who have good character and a smaller number who really comprehend and practice good off-field ethic. Tim Walsh, e.g., would pass with flying colours any test for niceness, decency and good intent). I am actually more confident about Casserley "getting his act together" than I ever was with any of the above. It's certainly not "bet on it" confidence however. What gives me hope with Casserley is that his intensity is sometimes very good and occasionally excellent (more-so with attack on the contested ball than effective, physical tackling).
Because of that doubt, however, and the not-unrelated big difference between Travis at his best and at his worst, I ranked him lower than his upside might suggest but earlier than his current performances warrant. On draft day, I would not use a pick earlier than about 25 (at the very best) on him (although I suspect he might go earlier). Again that doesn't do his upside justice but it also flatters the risk you would be taking.
The "Which Travis?" is not a function of the standard. This year he displayed both Casserleys at Colts level and both also at Senior level and in between.
Casserley has a team mate, Dennis Armfield, of whom I am a fan. If Casserley had Armfield's unshakeable self-confidence and routineness of intensity, Casserley would be a guaranteed long-term AFL player. But he doesn't, so it's hard predict his future, one way or the other, with any degree of confidence. To be blunt, I would rather Armfield in the trenches with me than Casserley, even though Casserley is the deadlier rifler. It's not that Casserley would not be virtually as capable, in the right mood, as Armfield. Not at all. It's just that I could count on Armfield being in the right frame of mind, whereas I couldn't with Casserley.
I want to make it clear that I am not labelling Casserley as lacking in courage. I wouldn't know. To be honest, there have indeed been times when I have thought that way during a game, only to later see him string together a number of courageous efforts. What I am saying is that his intensity at both man and ball is not consistent - not consistently insipid, not consistently purposeful, but a mix, with a strong leaning towards the former at this stage. At the very least, I suspect lack of confidence hits him at times to the extent that he seems so worried/confused about the risk of mucking up that he gets gripped with virtual inertia. A bit like the hard-hitting batsman who, after a couple of ducks in a row, hopes the batsmen in at the moment secure the game so he won't have to bat. At certain times, everyone has fear. Courage is not really about being fearless per se but about having the ability to shove your fears aside in a given situation. Most people (some more than others) have times of self-doubt. Self-doubt too is a form of fear. As with courage, mental toughness is about having the ability to shove such fears aside in a given situation. With Travis, I do suspect he can be inclined to play in fear at times. Which of the two fear types it is, is probably irrelevant. If he can (and/or can be helped to) conquer it, he will definitely be a player, such is his ability and work-rate at his best. If not, he won't. What I am convinced about is that whenever Travis appears half-hearted in his efforts, it is not about laziness or lack of good intention.
Having laboured that point, the rest of this profile will mainly focus on the impressive Travis who I love watching, rather than the sometimes insipid Travis:-
- Very athletic dasher who is an excellent kick, good overhead, usually runs very hard, takes them on and can be exciting, albeit with a fair bit to learn. That said, he is probably more a running, leaping athlete who can also kick, mark and collect cleanly, than someone born with natural footy smarts like Voss, Hird etc
At his best and with his confidence up, he is like an energetic kelpie pup who wants to chase everything and run and jump all over the place. Beau Muston is similar in that regard. Regardless of U18 form and/or consistency, what you are buying with both boys is
1. upside
2. running workrate
3. AFL versatility
4. a decent dose of rawness but with very coachable raw material
5. instinct rather than genuine understanding of on-field strategies.
- Casserley played Colts in '04 but usually couldn't find much of the pill - did some nice things but very much only in cameo. Has improved out of sight this year. Didn't get much chance to show his true form in the U18 Champs and his Champs should be ignored IMHO. Showed a fair bit in early Colts games (in a side that copped a couple of huge hidings) and showed quite a lot in subsequent Reserves and Seniors games. Maintained his spot in the Seniors semi-final on the back of a R23 Seniors game where he had 20 possessions (17 disposals), despite being off almost all Q1, and seemingly played on a welter of differerent types of opponent including the Hams twins and Travis Gaspar, and was named among the best. If that was the only Casserley game that someone saw, they would come away convinced this kid is genuine AFL material. If, instead, they saw some of his other games, including one Reserves game where he was credited with a healthy number of disposals, they might, depending on which game they saw, come away thinking this is a kid much too lacking in footy smarts and physical intensity to have any chance of AFL.
- When on his game mentally, what has impressed me most this year is his running work rate.
- A comparison with Xavier Ellis is interesting:-
1. Both similar height, both skinny (Casserley is 4kg heavier but is 9 months older), and both carry themselves in similar posture and mannerisms.
2. Ellis 9 months younger.
3. Both are usually much more outside than inside. Eliis more routinely outside than Casserley. Both play predominantly as Predators rather than First Dibs.
4. Casserley is a confidence player and that confidence can sometimes be fragile. Ellis seems routinely self-confident and self-assured. The result is that Ellis, allowing for his outsidedness, "never" plays a bad game at the levels (TAC, U16/U18 Champs, school) that he has played to date, and is consistent at these levels. Once you've seen Xavier play a number of times, you can confidently predict, before an Ellis game starts, roughly how many disposals he will have, what the mix will be in both getting and delivery, how he will play (in terms of style, intensity and level of performance), and maybe even what opportunities his opponent will get. You could virtually give someone an accurate description of an Ellis performance without even having been at the game. With Casserley, you'd need to have been there ... and watched the entire game
5. Both are probably best suited to "wing" at this stage but both have played mainly HBF this year. Casserley's best AFL role might still be as a running HBF.
6. Under any sort of pressure, both tend to be "reach with the arms (whether trying to get the pill or when tackling) instead of "commit the body" types.
7. Both very good kicks in all regards. Casserley has the more traditional kicking action and an action which arguably leaves him less susceptible at AFL level to being knocked off his kick. Casserley doesn't often use non-preferred foot but is comfortable using it when necessary. Ellis is essentially one-sided.
8. Ellis has the better vision under pressure and is much the better decision-maker and has a better ability to read the play and know where to run to. He is also more routinely discerning in looking for targets for his kicks and he mixes his kicking distances more.
9. Both good overhead, especially given their current skinniness. Casserley can take the more spectacular grab and often does, but Ellis is the more routinely reliable overhead at this stage.
10. Both similar speed but Casserley is a dasher who regularly uses his speed to the max, likes to carry the ball, and runs hard both ways. Ellis rarely does any of that. Other than footy smarts and self-confidence, the hard running is the key difference between Ellis and Casserley and the main advantage Casserley has over Ellis. Casserley regularly (albeit not routinely) runs very hard both ways. Ellis rarely seems to push himself. Their draft camp results bear this out. Ellis did 13.50 beep (about avg for his size) and a very poor 11.85 (among the bottom 15% of all time) for the 3Km. These are the 2 "events" that are the most testing and gruelling. Casserley did 15.20 (among the top 3% of all time) and 10.53 (among the top 14% of all time). I concede that Ellis hasn't had the physical conditioning of many of his peers but those results are telling re the way Casserley plays (when on his game) compared to Ellis.
11. Ellis is largely unaccountable. I think Casserley usually means to be but is not good at achieving it. He too often gets too separated from his opponent - sometimes because his opponent sneaks out the back unnoticed, sometimes because he is too slow mentally in reacting to a lead, and sometimes because he has chosen an inappropriate time to run forward or has positioned himself poorly. (See below).
12. Casserley has already proven himself against men (most notably at WAFL Seniors level).
13. Ellis was a very good U18 player last year and had a good U16s Champs that year. I've seen nothing to make me believe he has improved much this year. Casserley IMHO was a very ordinary U18 player last year but improved greatly this year and kept improving at an impressive rate throughout this season. I though his best games were against the men, including at Seniors level. Much is made of Ellis being bottom age, which is fair enough, so Casserley has a season start on Ellis. It's just that there are signs that Casserley is a late developer footy-wise and his improvement trend-line over the past year is much steeper than Ellis' (albeit starting from a much lower base).
Very much against popular thinking, and despite my concerns about Casserley and despite Ellis being a very much smarter footballer, I rank Casserley marginally ahead of Ellis primarily because he has the potential to change the course of a game, something I don't see in Ellis, despite his skills. Casserley, on his days (which, in giving him this ranking, I am trusting will be more frequent) is a ball carrier who is prepared to run hard hard both ways and be more attacking than Ellis. I don't find much difference in the appeal of Ellis and Casserley. I concede my later than expected ranking of Ellis and comparatively early ranking of Casserley may both come back to bite me on the bum but I've called it the way I see it.
- By all reports, Travis is a good kid. I would love him to develop a steely belief in himself and in his ability to routinely hurt the opposition. With his range of talents, he owes it to himself to not let himself down. If he addresses that, he won't have to worry about letting the team down. That's the issue in a nutshell though.
*DISPOSAL:
- Very good kick. Occasional turnover but he is usually very reliable. Was entrusted with kickouts for Swan Districts Seniors, despite being a Seniors novice.
- Very good kicking style.
- Excellent depth and power in his kicks. Range is at least 60m and he can kick virtually that distance, at least from a set kick, almost whenever he likes.
- Very reliable by hand. Quick hands. Good power in his feeds. Good hurt factor.
*DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:
- Not his strong suit. Sometimes zones off, leaving his man in a dangerous spot if a rebound occurs. Occasionally runs straight past the opponent who has the ball in space because he sees another opponent in space 50m away. (In such situations the result is often that the first guy has time to kick under no pressure and the 2nd has time to mark under no pressure, with Casserley caught in no-man's land).
- In general field play when not on the run, he does usually look for options and his vision at times is very good.
- He sometimes has a Jason Cloke-like willingness to run hard to mind the shop for a team mate whose opponent (within reassonable range of Casserley, or a bit further) presents an immediate danger. Casserley also runs hard, far and often to present an option. He has such a great motor that, at levels lower than AFL, he maintains the energy to do so. However he needs to ration that energy a bit to run out AFL games. He also needs to recognise when it is wise to stay home and mind his own shop instead of risking leaving his own customer alone near the open register. I'm not concerned long term. He'll learn to be more judicious with experience. I'd rather have to temper a kid who works "too hard" both ways than to try to add intensity to a kid who has poor ethic. I certainly don't want to discourage him from running to cover a team mate's free opponent or running on to present an option. I commend him for it. I just want to encourage him to be more judicious in deciding when to go and when to stay.
In minding an opponent near traffic, he usually indicates he has every intention of being accountable but he sometimes concentrates so much on the play that a slippery opponent (eg the Hams brothers for Sth Freo who are clones of Milne) can sneak away alone into dangerous space. Again I am confident he will adapt, with experience, to the tricks of these clever types.
He is also often too slow of mind/anticipation/concentration(?) to react quickly enough to his opponent's lead or to pre-empt it. The result is that you often see his opponent taking a chest mark on the lead with Casserley closing in hard but after the horse has bolted.
Fundamentally, he needs to learn to better recognise potential "time bomb" zones in relation to various play scenarios, opposition goals/"sweet spots" and opponents, and to learn to position himself according to appropriate risk assessment.
- In general play he almost always kicks for depth, even to a contest and even from a set kick, ignoring short options. When doing kickouts, he doesn't mind passing short but you can count on the greater majority of his kickouts being kicks for depth out wide and to the right hand side - even if the target is a 2 on 3. He must mix things up more. You can't be that predictable at AFL level. (Easily fixable so I'm not really concerned long-term).
- Does show a sharp "get out of trouble under pressure" evasion at times but it's a bit hard to form a definitive opinion re his potential to routinely display good evasive ability. While he is a dasher who is more than happy to back his pace to break away from an opponent, he doesn't make a habit of taking on an opponent who is in his flight path, although he does so occasionally (and usually successfully).
*HANDS:
- Fumbles occasionally but is usually clean all levels, including sometimes exceptionally clean off the carpet on the run.
