Here we come! / Can we make the top eight? [merged]

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Why would you want his list with this coach clogging up the finals series again?

They don't know how to win one and go to water on the day.

Truth is they don't deserve to make finals and the less favourable draw this year has shown why.

Lmao at "Making" finals being a target, not winning finals.

[one-eyed]

Sorry Tigers, stats say no finals

Herald-Sun
6 June 2016

NATHAN Buckley, Damien Hardwick and Alan Richardson can start channelling Lloyd Christmas.

The bowl-cutted goofball from Dumb and Dumber beamed “So you’re telling me there’s a chance” when told his odds of wooing a girl were one in a million — and it’s a similar story for Collingwood, Richmond and St Kilda.

Exclusive Champion Data statistics reveal those clubs are all just a 1 per cent chance of reaching this year’s finals.

“We are still firmly of the belief that if we get everything right we can challenge for the eight,” Tigers coach “Dimma” Hardwick said on Saturday.

“It is going to be incredibly tough (but) we’ve done it before. We’ll back ourselves in and give ourselves every chance.”

Sorry, Dimma, but the AFL’s official number cruncher disagrees.

Scott Pendlebury labelled Queen’s Birthday a must-win, but the analysis says it’s almost certainly too little too late for the injury-crippled Magpies.

And Hawthorn fans dreaming of a historic fourth straight premiership have also been dealt a gloomy forecast.

Despite sitting cosy at 8-3 and with only four remaining games against top-eight clubs, the Hawks are just a one in three shot of reaching the top four.

CLUB    FINALS    TOP 4    TOP 2    MINOR PREM    SPOON
Sydney Swans   97%    69%    44%    26%    0%
North Melbourne    95%    59%    34%    19%    0%
GWS Giants    95%    56%    27%    12%    0%
Western Bulldogs    95%    54%    27%    14%    0%
Geelong Cats    95%    53%    27%    13%    0%
Adelaide Crows    91%    41%    16%    6%    0%
Hawthorn    86%    33%    13%    5%    0%
West Coast Eagles    86%    31%    11%    4%    0%
Port Adelaide    38%    4%    1%    0%    0%
Carlton    11%    0%    0%    0%    0%
Melbourne    7%    0%    0%    0%    0%
Richmond    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
St Kilda    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
Collingwood    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
Gold Coast Suns    0%    0%    0%    0%    2%
Fremantle    0%    0%    0%    0%    15%
Brisbane Lions    0%    0%    0%    0%    35%
Essendon    0%    0%    0%    0%    47%

The last time Hawthorn finished outside the four was 2010, when giants were ruckmen and not a growing premiership force.

Under the current system no club has ever pinched a flag without the security of a double-chance.

Champion Data says only four clubs can collect the wooden spoon.

Essendon is nearly a 50-50 shot of clinching its first No.1 draft pick, followed by battling Brisbane.

And the statistical recipe, which factors in ladder position, draw difficulty and percentage, has marked Saturday night’s Geelong-North Melbourne clash as the most critical of Round 12.

The result will deliver a 22 per cent swing in top-four hopes for the Scott-coached clubs, with a Kangas victory set to drop the Cats’ chances to just 40 per cent.

Ouch.

The calculator has also done no favours for Melbourne.

The Demons are poised to finally enter a Queen’s Birthday clash as favourite, but the maths says this game borders on irrelevant.

A win against the Pies would only lift Melbourne to a 9 per cent chance of breaking its decade-long finals drought.

But with the top eight evenly split between Victorian and non-Victorian clubs, a top-two finish and home qualifying final also looms as crucial.

West Coast is the face of that, the Grand Finalist’s record forceful at home and farcical on the road.

Well, after losing to the Bulldogs the Eagles hopes of emulating last year’s heroics have been slashed.

The bookies have the Dogs seventh in line to stay in the top four, but a win against Port Adelaide will have them in the box seat with a 64 per cent chance.

And that doesn’t consider the impending returns of All-Australian Easton Wood, dasher Jason Johannisen and No.1 pick Tom Boyd.

A Power win against the Dogs would have Ken Hinkley’s men just shy of a 50-50 hope of playing finals and continuing the trend of a side sneaking into the eight from the Round 11 mix.

Since 2000 there has been a change in all but three seasons.

And a Herald Sun ladder predictor completed yesterday resulted in five clubs tied on 16-6 with a five-game break to the ninth-placed Power.

Whether it’s equalisation or evolution, chances are we’re heading for a photo finish.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/afl/footy-form/champion-data-rates-every-clubs-chances-of-playing-finals-this-year/news-story/722b6516ccc73283e1c8de1b8085dcb9

[Yeahright]

Lmao at all this faith that is based on our ability to beat the worst sides in the comp.

Stuff the 8. Play as many kids as possible and if we get there doing that then great.

This was never about making the eight (until someone decided to merge the thread )

[Stalin]

9th discussion was it?

[mat073]

We all know we wont play finals this year. In fact the eight has looked set in stone for about a month now.

We should beat Brisbane and become 6-7 ( which makes the Collingwood game hurt even more ).

Two games and massive percentage outside the eight.

Funny thing is back in 2014 ( at the same stage ) we were 5 GAMES AND PERCENTAGE out side the eight. That really was a remarkable year.

[WA Tiger]

9th

[Yeahright]

We still have another 1 and 3/4 steps forward to go and it's progressing a bit slower than anticipated but its coming along don't you worry about that

[one-eyed]

Champion Data gives us a 2% chance of making the finals.

Richmond has won five of its past six but most have come against lowly-ranked opponents so the Tigers’ finals chances have barely budged. Claim an upset against Port Adelaide or the Dogs in the next two weeks and those numbers will look a lot brighter.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/footy-form/champion-datas-finals-chances-after-round-14-not-good-news-for-north-melbourne/news-story/5d327966f9b9a09600932e904396d6a9

[Stalin]

 

[mat073]

When Richmond fell to 1-6 earlier in the season we were 3 games out side the top 8.

Even if we win on Friday night , to resurrect our season to 7-7 ( which is quite a commendable effort ) we will still be 2 games outside the 8.

Its just not going to happen this year. No one in the 8 looks remotely wonky. It will take a minimum 14 wins .

[Stalin]

9th isn't commendable

It's bad

[mat073]

9th isn't commendable

It's bad

We wont finish 9th . Port will finish 9th

My guesstimate is we will finish 12th behind Port , Melb and St kilda.

[Yeahright]

When Richmond fell to 1-6 earlier in the season we were 3 games out side the top 8.

Even if we win on Friday night , to resurrect our season to 7-7 ( which is quite a commendable effort ) we will still be 2 games outside the 8.

Its just not going to happen this year. No one in the 8 looks remotely wonky. It will take a minimum 14 wins .

It was never about making the eight (despite the merging of topics to make it seem that way ), that would have just been a bonus. It has been about development but unfortunately injuries at the start of the year turned our half step back into a full step back

[Stalin]

Development of young  grigg Chaplin Hampson Morris Houli.

[mightytiges]

We'll be lucky to win another game this year and it's not in our interests to finish higher up the ladder, but perversely, with North in free fall, we could still fall into the top 8 if we were to win 5 of the remaining six games .