Why Tom Lynch is the next Stephen Kernahan, how Richmond missed out on him — Jake’s TakeJake Niall
The Age
28 June 2016THE recruiter, whose team had finished too high to contemplate this particular key forward, was adamant about the player Richmond should take.
“Richmond have to take Tom Lynch,” he told the journalist.
It was the spring of 2010. Collingwood had won the flag — once in 20-year event. The Eagles had taken the spoon — a once in 25-year event. But the draft’s first round had been more or less donated to the competition’s incoming 17th club, the Gold Coast Suns.
The Tigers, unfortunately, were among the clubs most disadvantaged by the new team’s introduction. They’d finished 15th — second from bottom — in Damien Hardwick’s first season, yet had only pick No. 6 in the draft, rather than the customary Pick No. 2.
During that season, I had argued that they should be compensated with a priority pick.
Twice in the past the Tigers had famously bypassed champion key forwards, who had been selected immediately after that their pick. In 1999, they took Aaron Fiora (No. 3) before Matthew Pavlich (No. 4). Five years later, they selected Richard Tambling (No. 4) ahead of Lance Franklin (No. 5), in what was a fateful call for both Richmond and Hawthorn.
In 2010 the Tigers had little margin for error. Their list was thin, expansion was underway and while they would rise on the back of some sound first-rate choices — Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt — they could ill-afford a mistake, given that the Suns and Giants would remove so much talent.
Alas, Richmond did make what we can now see was a blunder, calling the name of Reece Conca, a West Australian kid who had speed and could kick but has often been hurt. By overlooking Lynch (pick No. 11), they would complete a dubious trifecta of gun key forwards — exactly five years apart — whom they might taken.
The bypassing of Lynch has never been highlighted, as Pavlich and Franklin were, largely because the Tigers were among a few clubs to overlook him and due to Lynch’s less dramatic impact in his first few years. West Coast had passed at pick No. 4 (Andrew Gaff), Brisbane at pick No. 5 (Jared Polec) and while Essendon didn’t take Lynch at No. 8, they did select Dyson Heppell.
West Coast’s alibi is that it already had a young Josh Kennedy. The Dons also had the highly talented Joey Daniher in the wings (2012 draft) and, at that stage, their pressing need was in the midfield.
That leaves the Lions and Richmond as the clubs that lost the potential anchors of their attacks. There is no better young key forward in the game than Lynch, who shapes as a Stephen Kernahan-like player and leader.
Missing Lynch was a less egregious error than letting Pavlich or Franklin go past, more a case of an opportunity lost than an awful oversight. Unlike Pav and Buddy, Lynch wasn’t rated as a super elite teenage talent.
As the Suns recalled, he was untidy and a touch raw. Gold Coast, thus, was able to pick Sam Day at pick No. 3, in the knowledge that Lynch would almost certainly still be there after pick No. 8 — the Suns having picks 1-3, 7, 9, 10 and 11.
Why did the Tigers not take him?
Aside from the fact that Lynch is a slow burn superstar, they already had similarly young key forwards on their list in Ben Griffiths and Tyrone Vickery, plus Jack Riewoldt, who had won the Coleman medal in only his fourth season.
Griffiths, who had been picked only 12 months earlier in the second round, had so many assets. He could take a big mark and roost the ball 60 metres. He moved well for a 200cm kid.
If you based assessments on track work, Griffiths would fetch a higher price at sale than Lynch — at least in the teenage market. But Lynch had the most indispensable trait: He was a competitor. Griffiths was far less assertive.
Lynch also has a massive aerobic base and work rate. His marking has developed to the point that there’s no better contested pluck in the game. Of the key forwards in the AFL, only Franklin is clearly ahead and he’s a different type.
Like Pavlich and Buddy before him, Lynch would have been a transformational recruit for the Richmond Football Club.
Recruiting in hindsight is always easy, and if the bottom line is painful, it’s also understandable why he wasn’t taken. The mistake, really, was the level of investment in Griffiths and to a lesser degree Vickery.
Watching the under 18 national championships this week is an instructive exercise when considering these calls. We can see what kids can do now, but recruiting is the art of projecting what a teenager will become. Richmond found an undervalued Riewoldt (pick 13, 2006) and missed out on an undervalued Tom Lynch.
Key forwards are rarely available outside of top six picks and father-sons. Four years after Lynch was drafted, the Saints — recognising that a key forward might not come along — picked Paddy McCartin at pick No. 1, ahead of an explosive midfielder, Christian Petracca.
We won’t know whether the Saints erred for some years. Hawthorn blundered with early picks in 2005 and 2006, but it had enough talent to cover.
Unlike the Hawks, the Tigers couldn’t afford a first-round stumble in 2010. They’ve paid for that miss, but given the known unknowns — Griffiths, Vickery and the forward who joined the Suns — they don’t deserved to be Lynched.
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/why-tom-lynch-is-the-next-stephen-kernahan-and-how-richmond-missed-out-on-him--jakes-take/news-story/ebb0d3b76eb32c6e230b37b0c5df713f
