Which problem do the Tigers tackle?Rohan Connolly
The Age
July 4, 2016AFL list management is a fine art, with much wisdom to be had in hindsight. Which is why it's too easy to whack Richmond for over-estimating how far they could go with their current list.
Leading into 2016, the Tigers had won 15 games and narrowly missed a top-four berth two years out of three, and in-between launched a phenomenal comeback over the second half of 2014 to reach September.
That was a pretty handy response to any jibes about three consecutive failures at the first finals hurdle, and a successful enough base from which to justify taking yet another calculated punt on the services of AFL-experienced types, this time Chris Yarran, Jacob Townsend and Andrew Moore.
If the jury was out for a long time on Richmond, the final verdict has been emphatically delivered. The Tigers simply aren't good enough, and it's time to start again. How, though? Well, that is the first thing an entire club needs to resolve.
Is the problem the coaching, the players, the recruiting or the development? Ask insiders at Punt Road, let alone what has become the most patient support base in the AFL, and you might get several different answers.
Coach Damien Hardwick has, on occasion, appeared to change his mind. After only three games this season, he spoke about the Tigers taking a "half step backwards to take two steps forwards". Six weeks ago, he believed he had "as good a list as I think we've had at my disposal since I've been there".
But after Port Adelaide extinguished any flickering finals hopes on Friday night, the party line was different again. "We're off the pace – that's the reality of it," Hardwick said. "So we need to find players who can continue to take us forward and get us back to where we need to be."
Do Richmond's players acknowledge that? Reigning best and fairest Alex Rance doesn't appear to. "I see so much potential [in the group] Rance told SEN on Saturday. "I feel like we're so close and I feel like we've got some really good talent there, it's just our consistency that's really let us down."
Is that a coaching issue? Perhaps. Game style certainly is, and this column has written previously this season about the Tigers too often playing with the handbrake on, seldom recapturing the excitement or potency they had during their best football played in 2013.
Hardwick has to accept plenty of responsibility for the decisions made on senior-experienced trade-ins. But Richmond, having extended the coach for another two seasons beyond this year, just four months later can hardly say "we got it wrong". That would also be a virtual statement that the list is good enough. It isn't.
It lacks skill, it lacks capable key forwards and it certainly lacks depth of quality. If you doubt that, do this little exercise and ask yourself who are the club's best five players.
Ask that question of just about any team in the competition and you'll be forced to ponder a shortlist of at least seven or eight players. Richmond? Not a single person could possibly pick a five other than one containing the names Martin, Rance, Riewoldt, Deledio and Cotchin.
The gap between the stars and the rest is a gulf, and it's arguably no closer to being closed now than three years ago. So is that about recruiting or development? It's a tougher one to answer.
Richmond have had eight top 20 national draft picks during Hardwick's seven-year tenure – Martin, Ben Griffiths, Reece Conca, Brandon Ellis, Nick Vlastuin, Ben Lennon, Corey Ellis and Daniel Rioli.
All are still at the club, which indicates the Tigers still believe they identified the right talent. But, Martin aside, are they key players threatening the status of that top five? Forgetting Martin and the first-year Rioli, that's six players who've played a combined 27 seasons and 343 senior games for, in terms of honours, just Brandon Ellis' runner-up in the 2014 best and fairest.
That was Ellis' breakout year, and he's plateaued since. Griffiths' and Vlastuin's averages and performances have stayed largely the same throughout seven and four seasons respectively.
Then there's the group of players still being introduced, some would argue too cautiously. Sam Lloyd and Ben Lennon, both controversially omitted for last year's elimination final. Lloyd has at least been a constant this season, Lennon injured. Jayden Short looks promising.
But trade pick-ups Moore, Townsend and Taylor Hunt have played just 14 games between them. Ruckman Liam McBean is in his fourth AFL season for a total of two senior games, tall defender Todd Elton his fifth year for two games.
Hardwick says Richmond have "blooded a lot of young players this year". But the Tigers have used 34 so far this season, fewer than seven rivals. Surely, that figure must rise substantially now, with absolutely nothing to be lost from unveiling as many as possible at senior level, and with close to half the list coming out of contract.
That might help Richmond determine who's worth persisting with and who isn't in 2017. First, though, the Tigers need to agree not just that there's a problem, but agree upon what that problem actually is.
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