AFL 2017: The case for the top eightRohan Connolly
The Age
10 December 2016This is a great time of year to be an AFL fan, perhaps a strange thing to say given last season finished more than two months ago and the next is still more than three months away.
But there's probably no time in the football calendar in which hope springs more eternal, every club with a fresh stack of talent, few if any injuries to speak of and a sense of optimism pervasive. And perhaps more so than ever heading into 2017.
Trying to put together a ladder prediction in the AFL era has never been easy, but it's going to be a nightmare next March, given the evenness at the top end and an even smaller gap between up to 10 teams beneath them.
There's just one side I'm prepared to say definitely won't play finals next year, and even Brisbane has considerable scope for improvement.
The two clubs that finished either side of the Lions at the bottom of the 2016 ladder, Fremantle and Essendon, might as well have done so with an asterisk, the Dockers surely better than their miserable 16th indicated, and having recruited well, the Bombers set to welcome back half a senior team.
I reckon predictions of Hawthorn's imminent demise are very premature as well, Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis are big losses but replacements Jaeger O'Meara and Tom Mitchell are very handy inclusions, and, fingers crossed, Jarryd Roughead is the biggest wildcard of the lot.
Only one of last season's top eight – North Melbourne – looked well off the pace by the end, but you'd be brave indeed to insist definitively they cannot make next year's final eight.
They're one of 10 candidates for whom quite rational finals cases can be mounted, the best and worst of them separated perhaps by only a couple of goals, and for whom the difference might only be a stroke of good or bad fortune.
It's a traffic jam of contenders. Let's examine their CVs.
RICHMOND: This year was a stinker, but it was still preceded by three consecutive finals finishes. That capability doesn't just vanish. And while Brett Deledio is a big loss, there's an argument two solid midfield pick-ups in Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy more than cancel it out. They could also allow Dustin Martin a more damaging role up forward, where lack of firepower is an issue. Need a good start to avoid obvious heat on Damien Hardwick, but overall their draw is one of the more negotiable. Could surprise if things go right.
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