Dwayne Russell: I will believe in Tigers if Richmond beat CrowsDwayne Russell,
The Advertiser
30 April 2017AS AN atheist when it comes to the religion of Richmond, it’s against my better judgment to be headed to the City of Churches to pray for a miracle to prove me wrong.
Normally us nonbelievers simply sit back during a sequence of Tiger wins and laugh at the building of blind hope, before popping up in late August or early September to say “we told you so”.
You remember Richmond’s nine wins in a row to finish the 2014 home-and-away season, before its fearless followers were blasted back to cold reality by Port Adelaide’s 14-goals-to-three first half in the elimination final.
But this season, there are some good reasons to want to believe. I just need a win over Adelaide on Sunday to actually do it. And a win over the reigning premiers the Bulldogs next Friday night wouldn’t hurt, either.
The AFL’s stats bible, as its nickname suggests, always reads as a conflict between faith and evidence.
After five rounds, the numbers can easily be quoted to make an argument for a Richmond win today, or alternatively be used against Richmond being a genuine premiership contender this year.
The best statistic supporting the Tigers is that they have the AFL’s best defence, conceding just 75 points per game this season. Adelaide’s defence is the AFL’s fifth-best, conceding 87 points per game.
The Tigers are also the most efficient team in the AFL this season. They are a low-possession, long-kicking team that holds the ball in its forward half longer than most other teams.
And their new, high-up-the-ground, 18-player press is helping their new blend of clever forwards score more.
For the record, the Tigers have also registered 374 long kicks this season, which ranks it easily No. 1, with a massive 46 more long kicks than the second-best long-kicking team, the Giants, who have had 328.
Adelaide, as its top ladder position would suggest, is also ranked high in many quotable categories.
You would no doubt have read endlessly this week, how the Crows are the No. 1 team for total scoring this season with an average of 133 points per game.
To put that into perspective, only two teams in the game’s history have averaged over 130 points per game in a season - Geelong in 1989 and Geelong in 1992.
But what everyone fails to tell you about that stat is that Geelong did not win the premiership in either of those two seasons. But let’s not complicate things.
The Crows are also No. 1 in the AFL this season for contested possessions and for their economic, possession-per-goal efficiency. But almost more importantly, the Crows are winning games by being the best team in the competition for the multiple ways they are scoring.
They use back-half handball chains and long kicks to generate scores. They also use back-half run and carry.
They score from stoppages. They score by forcing turnovers. They score from forward pressure. And they win possession with both inside grunt and outside skill and speed.
A spread of dominance makes a team more difficult to stop than a team that wins by having a massive dominance in one area that can be targeted and stopped by an opposition.
But where all the statisticians’ numbers can lie at this time of the season, is their small sample size. They are derived from just five games. The numbers need to be seasonally adjusted.
The Tigers’ wins have been against teams that, after five weeks, have only won a total of eight games.
Adelaide’s wins have been against teams that have won a total of thirteen games.
Boiled down, the Tigers’ five wins have been against teams that after five rounds, sit seventh, 10th, 13th, 14th and 16th, including Carlton, Brisbane and Collingwood which are already out of finals contention.
Adelaide’s five wins have been against teams that sit far higher in fourth, sixth, eighth, 12th and 15th.
So Richmond’s numbers should be adjusted down a little, and Adelaide’s numbers adjusted up.
As a sceptic it’s also my job to point out that Richmond has been unable to deliver on a premiership promise for 36 years. The Tigers have reached the finals only six times since their last flag in 1980. And in their past three finals appearances in 2013, 2014 and 2015 - all under current coach Damien Hardwick - they were knocked out on the first weekend.
The Tigers also finished 13th last season, and teams rarely come from 13th to win flags. So history, in many ways, is also against them.
But as those with faith should rightly shout, history was also against the Dogs breaking their 62-year premiership drought last season.
And the 2017 version of Richmond has also shaken off some of the stereotypes from its recent history.
Dustin Martin, who picked up the occasional junk possession in the past, is now a consistently reliable, highly potent, midfield-forward superstar. Jack Riewoldt, who was once an emotional time-bomb, is now a classy and inspirational leader.
Trent Cotchin’s possessions now penetrate. Daniel Rioli has added chase-down pressure and unpredictability to the forward line. David Astbury, who will play on Taylor Walker today, has become a reliable partner for Alex Rance.
And Toby Nankervis has become Richmond’s missing link, as a tough, pressurising ruckman.
One of the most enjoyable things about watching a football season evolve in Melbourne is the magical phenomenon of the Richmond bandwagon.
Firstly, it doesn’t matter what their playing list looks like, what the experts are predicting, or what the footy stat scientists are churning out as evidence against their hopes and expectations - the true Richmond follower’s passion and faith overrides all.
You could tell them Rory Sloane is currently the best player in the competition, with the second-most clearances in the competition, the most tackles, and more contested possessions than iconic tough nut Joel Selwood.
You can tell them Walker not only kicks goals but is averaging the most goal assists in the competition this season. You could tell them Matt Crouch and Rory Laird are in the top-eight possession winners in the league this year.
But they won’t care. They probably don’t even know who Crouch and Laird are.
And that’s the beauty of their cult. And it’s the reason why today is one of those rare days when we Richmond atheists are winners if we are wrong.
If they grab a sixth victory in a row, forget driving down the streets of Pennsylvania to marvel at the Amish. A drive down Swan St in Richmond’s heartland, with the Tigers undefeated, would almost make you want to throw all logic out the window, and join them.
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