AFL website is tipping us to win by a kick.
Match preview: Richmond v SydneyNathan Schmook
afl.com.au
June 13, 2017 1:20 PM
SUMMARYFrom a hopeless position of 0-6, Sydney has dragged itself back into finals contention with a strong month of football that has it sitting 4-7. In its most convincing win yet, the Swans dismantled the Western Bulldogs in round 12, reminding the competition of their defensive prowess and hunger for the contested ball. They come up against a Richmond team that will be fresh off a bye, with the Tigers keen to establish themselves in the top four after Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs missed opportunities to push them out in round 12. Damien Hardwick's team took momentum into the bye with wins against Essendon and North Melbourne, with Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin forming one of the League's most potent double acts. The Tigers might also draw an advantage from ruck recruit Toby Nankervis, who will face his former team for the first time.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday, June 17, 1.45pm AEST
LAST FIVE TIMES
R23, 2016, Sydney 25.14 (164) d Richmond 7.9 (51) at the SCG
R8, 2016, Richmond 14.17 (101) d Sydney 15.10 (100) at the MCG
R13, 2015, Richmond 14.11 (95) d Sydney 11.11 (77) at the SCG
R23, 2014, Richmond 10.8 (68) d Sydney 9.11 (65) at ANZ Stadium
R14, 2014, Sydney 9.8 (62) d Richmond 7.9 (51) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS1. The Swans had the game wrapped up by half-time when these teams last played, kicking 14 goals to one to lead by 81 points at the main break. Lance Franklin finished the game best on ground with 17 kicks, 11 marks and seven goals.
2. Richmond is one of the strongest teams for marks inside 50 this season, averaging 13.5 a game (No.2 in the AFL). The Swans are mid-table, averaging 12.6.
3. Nothing separates the sides since 2013, with the ledger at 3-3. Four of the past five games have been decided by three goals or less.
4. Both teams have struggled to cleanly dispose of the ball this season. Richmond is ranked last for disposal efficiency (71.1 per cent) and the Swans are only marginally better (71.7 per cent).
5. It’s a tale of two form lines since round six. The Tigers have lost four of six games with an average score of 77 points, while the Swans have won four from six, kicking an average score of 102 points.
6. During the Swans run of four wins from five games, Isaac Heeney has climbed from No.125 overall in the Schick AFL Player Ratings to No.80. He is ranked No.6 at the Swans and No.6 among the AFL's medium/small forwards.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Lance Franklin and Alex RanceThe last time these sides met, in round 23 last year, the Tigers fielded a team of youngsters that was not competitive and Franklin kicked 7.4 in a 113-point win. Rance, who played that day, will be hoping for a tighter contest and more support in shutting down his superstar opponent in a match-up that is always worth watching. Since 2014 the pair has met four times, with Franklin kicking 18.6. If Rance wins the match-up it will go a long way to the Tigers winning. Vice versa for Franklin.
PREDICTION: Richmond by six pointshttp://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-13/match-preview-richmond-v-sydney
