Richmond are Australian football’s best mudrunnersThe Australian
29 July 2017There’s more to Richmond than a rollicking, thigh-slapping song and an unfair reputation for always finishing ninth.
The Tigers are Australian football’s mudrunners.
Last Sunday the grand old club wallowed gleefully in the MCG slush to show the callow Giants how to play wet weather football.
“It helped us,” Tigers coach Damien Hardwick said of the sodden MCG after last week’s game.
“Sides that put their head over the ball and get the ball going forward, I think it helps.
“We don’t mind playing in the wet. It suits us, in a way. We like a tackle and contested-ball game.”
So it’s just the Tigers’ rotten luck that they’re playing on the Gold Coast — forecast to be sunny and 22C — today.
Rain is predicted just about everywhere else, so how sides handle the wet – the increasingly unfamiliar wet in this age of the Etihad Stadium roof, drop-in cricket pitches and drier winters – will shape round 19.
Stats tend to get washed away — or at the very least, diluted, in the wet — but there’s still insight to be gained from the data.
Indeed, just as the best players are even better in the wet, some of the Champion Data information becomes even more important.
Contested possessions are touted as the silver stats bullet, but the Tigers were well beaten on that score last week.
Going by the numbers from that game, the key to wet weather football is not over-possessing the ball; the Tigers had 65 fewer possessions than GWS.
A game style based on maintaining possession and precise kicking is hard enough in the modern game. Doing it in the wet is nigh on impossible.
Get the ball and get it forward. Get it down the line. Be where the ball is. Forget all that pretty ball movement. Get down and get ugly.
Players might even (gulp) consider kicking to a one-on-one or, heaven forbid, a pack.
When it comes to water, the modern game is oil. Rain spoils all those cute little passes and shrewd switches.
Football is getting more bruise-free by the season. Uncontested possessions have risen every year since 2011 (see table).
So adjusting to wet weather football is difficult for sides used to chipping the ball around under clear skies or, failing that, the Etihad roof.
If over-possession is a recipe for disaster in the wet, surely that means the Demons (No 1 for disposals) are vulnerable against North Melbourne (No 15 for disposals) in Hobart today.
(Of course the Kangaroos being No 15 for disposals might have something to do with them being No 17 on the ladder.) No side handballs as often as the Demons and no side kicks as seldom as North. Both are strong tackling sides so the game should, at the very least, be a keen scrap.
Adelaide Oval’s state-of-the-art drainage and pitch-free square will be tested if the 10mm in rain forecast for today does indeed fall.
If Port or St Kilda try to be too cute they will pay a heavy price: northwesterlies gusting up to 40km/h will play havoc with both sides’ kicking.
The data says the Power’s home ground advantage will be reinforced by their better wet weather game. They play a lower possession style than the Saints.
Much will depend on Paddy Ryder’s ruck duel with Billy Longer; they are ranked seventh and eighth for hitouts to advantage.
The weather will also likely be a factor in the Collingwood-Adelaide match at the MCG tomorrow.
Adelaide’s loss of Eddie Betts and Brad Crouch might not be a problem given the Crows’ game style is better suited to the forecast rain.
The Crows are No 1 for long kicks and are more efficient with the ball, whereas Collingwood are No 1 for uncontested possessions and No 2 for uncontested marks and short kicks.
There’s a school of thought, however, that there’s no such thing as a good wet weather side. Giants coach Leon Cameron said as much after the loss to Richmond last week.
Cameron said his side played better when the rain was heavier last week. The loss, he said, was more down to Richmond’s tackling and pressure.
“You’ve got to adapt to all conditions,” Cameron said. “It was a mindset thing.
“There’s an element of just knuckling down and fighting your way through it, because you’re not going to get it on your own terms whether it’s bad weather or good weather.”
But the Giants don’t have to worry about any such problems today against Fremantle at Spotless Stadium, where it’ll be fine, sunny and 21C. Just like September, really.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/afl/richmond-are-australian-footballs-best-mudrunners/news-story/6301345202ca4b9674b04a173b6c8264
