Tigers list analysis, Cats list analysis,
Richmond has more talented list ahead of qualifying final says Jake NiallSeptember 7, 2017 12:15pm
Jake Niall
FOX SPORTSGEELONG has beaten Richmond with such regularity — winning 18 of their past 19 encounters — that it’s hard to recall the last period when the Tigers owned a superior playing list.
It was the turn of the millennium. John Howard was early in his prime ministership, Mick Malthouse had been unveiled as Collingwood coach inside a Volvo convertible in a cloud of dry ice and the Cats were on the brink of financial ruin.
Led by Mark Thompson, they would embark upon a rebuilding program that would yield an astonishing group — most from the 1999 and 2001 drafts — that would take them to a treble of flags.
Richmond, on the back of Matthew Richardson, Wayne Campbell, Matthew Knights, Paul Broderick, Darren Gaspar and a kid called Brad Ottens, vaulted up to a preliminary final in 2001, as the Cats slumped to 13th.
This ascendancy was as brief as the tenures of the PMs that followed Howard.
As these teams prepare for their first final since 1995, this is the first time since 1999-2001 that one can mount a credible argument that the Tigers have a stronger playing list than the team that has tormented them.
While they are reliant on an awesome foursome — Dustin Martin, Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin — that’s precisely double the number of iron-clad A graders at Chris Scott’s disposal.
The past and present list managers and recruiters I consulted were divided on the question of which club had the better playing list.
Some reckoned Geelong was ahead in the present. Others preferred the Tigers, particularly in the near future.
Chris Pelchen (the ex-Hawthorn/Port Adelaide list manager and St Kilda football boss), said mature Geelong was more “finals ready’’ this year, but the Tigers were better placed for the future.
“There’s not much in it,” said one current list manager.
“It’s so line ball it depends on how they draft from here on.”
Given the choice of either club’s list, I wouldn’t hesitate to take Richmond’s. Geelong, even if it prevails on a frigid Friday night, is unhealthily dependent upon Patrick Dangerfield, without whom — and Kardinia Park — the well-coached Cats would struggle to play finals.
Pelchen said: “It’s the way that the Tigers’ list now tapers puts its list in a stronger position beyond this year.’’
For the Tigers, there’s a chasm separating their fourth and fifth players — indeed, it is difficult to nominate the fifth ranked player at Punt Rd. Is it Shane Edwards? Brandon Ellis or Dylan Grimes?
For the Cats, of course we know there’s a grand canyon between Dangerfield and Joel Selwood and whoever ranks as number three, whether that’s Mitch Duncan, Tom Hawkins, Harry Taylor or — on this year’s form — ex-Blue Zach Tuohy.
Richmond’s core of guns aren’t young, but should have three to four years of excellence ahead. Rance and Cotchin are 27, Riewoldt 28 (Rance and Riewoldt turn 28 and 29 respectively in October), Martin is 26 with eight million reasons to play well into his 30s.
Richmond’s edge, thus, is more about the next couple of years than the present — unless the Cats pull more recruiting rabbits out of the hat, as they did when Dangerfield moved back to Mogg’s Creek.
Player rankings have five Tigers aged 24 and under who are “above average” this year, according to official statistician Champion Data. Geelong has none besides Lincoln McCarthy, who barely played this year.
The five 24-and-unders at Tigerland are Ellis, Daniel Rioli, Nick Vlastuin, Toby Nankervis and Dan Butler.
If you extend the rankings to 25-and-unders, the Tigers add Dusty (ranked elite) and Kane Lambert to the list, with Geelong gaining Sam Menegola.
Introduce 26 year-olds and the Cats have three above average: Mitch Duncan, Daniel Menzel and Steven Motlop, and the Cats haven’t rushed to sign the latter pair.
In David Astbury and Dylan Grimes, the Tigers have a pair of high functioning 26-year-old defenders surprisingly ranked below average; it is a quirk of the rankings that defensive players can be undersold.
Overall, though, the Cats have far more invested in older players. Dangerfield, J.Selwood, Hawkins, Tuohy, Zac Smith, Lachie Henderson and Tom Lonergan comprise the bulk of their above average or elite group.
Dangerfield, Tuohy, Henderson and Smith were acquired via trades. The Cats have undergone a cultural transformation from a club that relies on the draft to one invested heavily in trades/free agency — with a preference for bringing locals (eg Henderson, Dangerfield) home.
The Tigers SHOULD have the edge in talent when you consider each club’s ladder’s positions since 2007. Geelong has reached the top four seven times and missed the finals once.
The Tigers, conversely, has played finals three times under Damien Hardwick, the coach at risk of becoming, in David King’s cruel term, ‘Home and Away Hardwick’.
Both have midfield superstars, with Geelong owning two. Neither has huge depth of talent. If there isn’t a definite A grader among the Richmond kids, they are still producing more, at this stage, than their Cat counterparts.
Whatever happens in what shapes as the weekend’s most consequential game — the winner gets a home prelim, the loser could well cop Sydney — when the lists are lined up, it’s the Tigers by a whisker.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/geelong-has-recent-edge-but-richmond-has-a-more-talented-list-ahead-of-crucial-qualifying-final/news-story/a090e682caed5ba39952ebf9c9041511
