AFL Grand Final winners and losers: David King on where the game will be won and lostDAVID KING
Herald Sun
29 September 2017GRAND Final Day is upon us.
The Tigers and the Crows have planned, played and persevered better than 16 other AFL teams to qualify for the opportunity to achieve premiership glory.
Unfortunately, our wonderful game doesn’t celebrate winning seasons or reflect glowingly about those that stumble at the last hurdle. It’s premiership or bust.
Today is a life changer, one way or the other.
There are some key factors that are important to achieving success this afternoon and post Grand Final we’ll address which team executed these facets more effectively.
Here’s my “Sum of Six” factors.
SPEED BALLTHE Crows want the game played quickly as they love to use the space for their forwards to charge back to goal.
They’ve kicked the most goals from 0-30m this season — by a significant margin — as their go-forward kicking game slices zoning defences.
If Richmond cannot halt the ball-movement speed they’ll give Alex Rance, David Astbury and Co very little chance to disrupt or diffuse the Crows’ forward thrusts.
Melbourne’s victory against the Crows at Adelaide Oval in Round 8 exhibited some methodology used by Simon Goodwin. The Demons held a defender as a goalkeeper role and had Jeff Garlett roaming across the Dees’ centre half-back area once they’d lost possession. It worked to diffuse the Crows’ speed of ball movement.
This facet is the greatest consuming the Tiger coaching staff this week.
AIR v GROUNDDANIEL Talia and Jake Lever will look to regain possession for the Crows through their strength which is intercept marking.
In Round 6 against Richmond the Crows took 21 intercept marks and a season-high 25 contested marks. It’s a clear aerial dominance that Don Pyke will certainly look to encourage again today.
Conversely the Tigers will be desperately trying to get the ball to grass, then use their ground-level game with speed as their main asset.
The Tigers’ pseudo talls of Josh Caddy and Jacob Townsend have significant roles to play.
The question all season has been the need or importance of the traditional second tall target, a Ben Griffiths type, but Damien Hardwick has resisted that urge and designed a game-plan around the stocks available.
Crows win in the air, while the Tigers hunt at ground level, sounds logical …
DUSTY MARTINTHE Tattooed Warrior has become not only the Tigers’ best midfielder but their best forward.
The Brownlow medallist has proven unstoppable this season and I wonder if Pyke would consider a Rory Sloane run-with role to curb the Tiger superstar?
If Dusty does what he’s done all season then the Tigers are alive.
Dustin spent more than 60 per cent of last weekend’s preliminary final against Greater Western Sydney in the forward line and with great effect. He had only 20 disposals but 13 of those went on the scoreboard, which highlights the potential for Dustin to have a “bear in the square” game separating influence.
The fend-off is almost legendary, the snap at goal a trademark but the reliance on Dusty is still a fraction unhealthy.
Can the Tigers win without Dusty being Dusty?
RUCK INFLUENCETOBY Nankervis has looked tired at stages in the second half of the season yet he remains the competitive beast the Tigers craved in the ruck.
The Tigers are only an average clearance team but their scores from clearances is the competition’s best over the past two months, averaging +14 points on their opposition, which is fascinating give that the Crows are ranked just behind them, averaging +9 points.
The centre bounce is the most critical as it not only present the first opportunity to score but a valuable territory advantage. The numbers say that there’s a 60 per cent chance of scoring after a centre bounce clearance win.
The Tiger need to be watchful of the extra runners off the back of the centre square, such as Charlie Cameron and at times Eddie Betts. If they become part of the chain the Crows will score from centre bounce clearances.
Sam Jacobs has had a challenging month away from football, but big Sauce looks ready to tear a game apart. His contested marking close to goal often surprises, too.
A break-even at clearances is a win for the Tigers and anything better than that drastically swings the game into their favour.
SMALL PESTSTHE Tigers’ pressuring game has been much talked about but for the first time in weeks it was sub-par for the first half of the preliminary final.
Is that a concern? It’s the main scoring method for the Tigers so it will need to be at its best this afternoon.
If the fanatical Tiger pressure is below the lofty standards set in 2017 then the Crows will score
quickly and heavily. There’s only a small evidence of this being the case so assume the Tiger Tornado to be out in force.
Can Rory Laird, Paul Seedsman and the like handle the heat that Richmond brings on Adelaide’s counter attack? If so the margin may just blow out in favour of the Crows.
LEADERSHIPWHICH leadership core will have the greater influence on proceedings?
Trent Cotchin’s leadership through the final series has been world class. Cotchin has set the standard for physicality, collision and a desire to put his head over the football regardless of what’s coming his way. Tiger fans want one more from the skipper.
Taylor Walker has been carrying the torch at the front of this campaign for 18 months but the
time is now for Walker to seize possession and start impacting the scoreboard.
The Grand Final demands more than a stare-down and a call at the toss of the coin. I get the feeling Tex is ready for a big one.
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