The stats files: The blueprint to beating Richmond (afl site)

[one-eyed]

The stats files: The blueprint to beating Richmond

Marc McGowan
afl.com.au
Jul 17, 2018 12:12PM

AT THE risk of inciting the Tiger Army, we give you the blueprint on how to beat Richmond.   

Disclaimer: it's easier written than done – and it involves much more than herding the Tigers onto a plane to travel interstate.   

There are trends emerging in Richmond's four losses this year, beyond the fact all of them came outside of Victoria.   

(On that note, no club since Carlton in 1987 has won the flag without winning at least one game interstate. Gold Coast hosts the Tigers in round 21.)   

Adelaide (round two), West Coast (round nine), Port Adelaide (round 12) and Greater Western Sydney (round 17) are the clubs that toppled Richmond in 2018.   

They all kicked the ball at least 228 times and up to 261 (the AFL average is 213) and only the Crows had a lower kick-to-handball ratio against the Tigers than their season standard.   

It's no accident, as Giants coach Leon Cameron explained on radio station 3AW on Sunday.   

His team's kick-to-handball ratio dramatically spiked from 1.28 to 1.58 – 19.9 more kicks and 19.6 fewer handballs than normal – in its two-point victory over Richmond on Saturday night.   

"The No.1 thing is we probably over-handballed a fair bit in the past, especially against Richmond," Cameron said.   

"We know Richmond's pressure is No.1 by a mile, and we thought we got that kick-to-handball ratio … a bit better than what we have in the past when we've played sides that (place) high pressure.   

"When you come up against those sides, if you overuse or go backwards, you just invite their pressure even more.   

"(The Tigers) have this uncanny knack as soon as they sense a kill by an overuse; they just come forward from whatever position they are at."   

There are many different ways to illustrate a team's pressure prowess, but what sets Richmond apart is its ability to punish turnovers.   

The Tigers have outscored their opposition by 338 points from turnovers this season, an astronomical 96 more than any other club.   

Every premier bar one – the Western Bulldogs in 2016 – has finished in the top two in this category since 2007.   

But Richmond's four defeats coincided with its worst season outings in that department.   

The Eagles scored 42 extra points from turnovers in round nine; Port was plus-14; Adelaide plus-10; and GWS plus-eight.   

The only other time the Tigers were on the wrong side of this ledger was by a solitary point against Geelong in round 13, when they enjoyed an 18-point triumph.   

There is also a stark contrast in Richmond's defensive-half turnovers and points conceded in wins (20 turnovers for 15 points, the second-fewest of any side) to losses (27.5 for 42.5, the most).

Richmond's turnover culprits 
PLAYER    WINS    LOSSES
Nick Vlastuin    2.6    3.3
Brandon Ellis    1.9    3
Jack Higgins    0.4    3
Jayden Short    1.9    2.8
Alex Rance    1.1    2.5
David Astbury    1.3    2
Reece Conca    1.2    2
Kane Lambert    0.9    2

Is that all there is, you ask? Well, there's more.

The Tigers typically prefer to move the ball along the boundary out of their defensive 50, but their conquerors forced them to rebound more often through the corridor and on the wing.

They were also remarkably less prolific and efficient in defeat, so that is likely a combination of their opposition's tactics and a down day, of which are rare.

Richmond remains on top of the ladder by percentage over West Coast and boasts a record-equalling 17-game winning streak at the MCG, where it could spend the entire finals series.

But the reigning premiers aren't invincible. Their best and worst can be poles apart, and sides may be starting to develop a formula to at least give themselves a chance against this mighty outfit.

How the Tigers lose their stripes
STATISTIC                                                WINS    LOSSES
Points for                                     103.2 (ranked 2nd)    75 (ranked 12th)
Points against                                        61.7 (1st)    99.8 (15th)
Clearances score differential                   +7.3 (3rd)    -7.3 (16th)
Points from forward-half possession gains  39 (1st)    22 (equal 15th)
% score once inside 50                            47.2 (2nd)    40.9 (13th)
% goal once inside 50                             24.6 (4th)    19.1 (13th)
% corridor from D50                              16.6 (13th)    19 (11th)
% wing from D50                                   34 (8th)    37.6 (1st)

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-17/the-stats-files-the-blueprint-to-beating-richmond

[Lozza]

This beating Richmond has become a media obsession. I am sure coaches know what they have to do but having the cattle and ability to execute is another thing. The examples also rely on us having a bad day, still believe if we bring our best to the G it would take an almighty effort to topple us.

[Beans]

Those stats are meaningless. Off course when you lose they are going to be lower. Every team is the same. If our goal kicking was better by 6 inches when George hit the post we win and this article never gets written.

[Gracie]

And all these articles assume Richmond will not improve or alter our game style when confronted by this game style.