Pick of the hunch
Terry Wallace
Herald Sun
28 March 2006
AS FAR as reading form goes, has there ever been a sillier silly season?
More than ever, pre-season form is very difficult to predict. Some teams have excited their supporters even before the first ball has been bounced. Some have left fans baffled.
With the Commonwealth Games now behind us, every business or household starts thinking about its tipping competition during the next 48 hours. While some tipsters will have studied the pre-season form intently, others will go in blind with their selections for the new season. You'd be just as well off going in blind.
The reality is that no form counts until Thursday night and the 175 games that follow.
History shows that some teams and their coaches want to play hard every time they go out, while others experiment during the summer.
I can recall the great Carlton sides, when I was playing through the late 1970s and 80s, failing to score a win during the summer months and questions being asked. Then they would come out and obliterate teams in Round 1 of each year. In recent seasons, Sydney has done exactly the same.
The Swans won their first practice game for coach Paul Roos just a fortnight ago.
But what can we read into the pre-season?This year we have seen less of the top-line players involved, especially in the regional practice matches, as clubs did not want to over-tax them.
This situation becomes very tough on the country communities but, from a professional perspective, the travel factor can have a wearing effect on players before the season proper begins. At Richmond, in our past three weeks we have travelled to Shepparton, Carrara on the Gold Coast and then to Mildura. Some clubs have travelled considerably further.
Even our own form is difficult to assess. We came off Carrara against Sydney thinking we played almost our best footy since I'd been at the club.
Then at Mildura against Essendon, we didn't fire a shot. At times, getting a line on your own form is difficult.
I am fascinated to have a look at a pre-season ladder to get an indication of where each club has been over the month. It is interesting to know whether those high on the ladder gain much confidence from their pre-season work or kid themselves about the importance of the past month.
The other question is, do the teams that have struggled lose any confidence or understand that in reality it all begins this weekend?
From the games I have seen live, I would think that both Hawthorn and Fremantle should be improvers.
I have now seen Essendon three times and believe the Bombers are ready to knock against Sydney in Round 1 at Telstra Dome.
As for three of the current heavyweights – St Kilda, West Coast and Sydney – none of them reached any great pre-season heights, but underestimate them at your peril
NAB Cup as a form-lineI have heard people suggest the NAB Cup is no form guide for teams in the season proper.
While I agree that some teams use these games purely for experimental value, most years some strong performances in the NAB Cup stand the test of time.
In recent years St Kilda and Geelong have performed well in the summer games and have taken that form and confidence into the season.
Those who do not like the pre-season format quickly point to Carlton's pre-season cup win last year, but you could also say that West Coast, which played in last year's final, took a quantum leap in confidence.
It would also be a brave tipster to suggest that Geelong and Adelaide, who played off in this year's final, are not going to be two of the stronger teams once the season kicks off in earnest this week.
Both have already gained confidence from the fact they appear to have further matured after strong 2005 performances.
Should we try to emulate the premier?Each year so much is written and spoken about the premier team. This means often it sets the pattern for the new season.
During the summer many of the lower teams will have analysed everything about Sydney, including its one-on-one mentality at the stoppages, its use of rapid interchange, ability to fade back and prevent opponents from scoring, as well as the transition from fast play to slow play.
Another factor teams would have studied is that the Swans always play all their rookies and kids through the summer, only bringing their senior players in for the last couple of practice games.
Last year this had the Swans a little underdone in the early rounds of the season but they believe it had them fresh for a September campaign.
Terry's tipping secrets* Early-season games are often lower scoring and closer. Teams are yet to get a handle on the full-blooded pressure of the season proper.
* Look for quick running teams. The Kangaroos have been a great example of this in recent years. It is usually run-and-carry players who have an impact, while key-position power forwards take a few weeks to hit their straps.
* Always back the teams from the previous year with a point to prove. An untimely or frustrating exit will often have been burning inside these teams for six months. Geelong has already shown this by trying to shed some of their demons by winning the NAB Cup.
* Pick the interstate teams at home. Many people say it is easier to win interstate early in the year when there is not as much at stake, but the odds and numbers are still stacked strongly with the home team.
* Blow-outs regularly occur in hot interstate conditions such as Brisbane and Perth.
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/footy/common/story_page/0,8033,18623747%255E25877,00.html
