Six battles that will decide the Grand FinalDavid King
Herald Sun
28 September 2019Richmond and the GWS have outplayed and outlasted 16 rivals to have a crack at being crowned Premiers. But there’s no silver medallist in AFL — it’s winner take all.
Here are my six “premiership points” that could dictate the result in the final 120 minutes of the season.
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HAND v FOOTWill Richmond’s forward-handball game beat the Giants’ pure kicking dexterity? Who will execute more effectively under Grand Final pressure?
Clearly handballing is easier and, while inviting harassment from the Giants, the Tigers have mastered exiting tight, overcrowded or congested spaces.
The Giants’ long kicking will need to avoid Dylan Grimes and company, who will hold their positions across the half back flank.
The Giants’ counter-attack kicking game is aggressive and spectacular in full flight. Lachie Whitfield and Zac Williams are not your standard midfielders and if given time and space they’ll separate this game.
The teams possess different ball movement methodology, but the Tigers have the AFL’s most scores created from the defensive half. Richmond “runs and guns” like no other.
CLEARANCESIT’S a case of “Operation 31”. The Giants are six losses and three wins when they’ve scored 31 points or less from stoppages, yet they’re 13 wins and three losses when they score more than 31 points from stoppages. It’s a simple equation.
Either the Giants continue with their clearance weaponry and have success, or the Tigers force them to find another way to score. And if they can’t, it’s Tiger time.
The Giants score heavily from clearances and average 10 points a game more than their direct opponent.
Jacob Hopper, Tim Taranto and Matt De Boer will be face-to-face with Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia and Dustin Martin. But it’s Whitfield and Williams at first handball receive positions off clearance who do the real damage.
Expect Dan Rioli and Shai Bolton to be sweating on them as they roll up from their half-forward positions.
Richmond’s clearance game isn’t a priority for coach Damien Hardwick, but it must defend lost clearances like never before. If Richmond wins the clearances, it will win the game.
But Richmond has only won the clearance battle four times this season.
TURNOVERSTHIS time it’s “Operation 36”. The Tigers are the AFL’s most difficult team to move the football against as they consistently force their opposition to turn it over.
Since Round 15, Richmond has scored 63 of its 98-point average from turnovers from forward-half pressure.
Richmond is comfortably No. 1 in the competition in this category.
Geelong’s plan last week was to force the Tigers to find another way of scoring by conceding only 24 points on exiting the defensive half with safer, slower ball use.
That was a two-goal saving on Richmond’s 34-point average, which doesn’t sound significant, but is considerable in a small-margin game.
The Tigers were 15 wins from 16 games when they got more than 36 points from forward-half turnovers. Yet, they were three wins from eight games when they had 36 points or fewer.
If GWS cannot control the football exiting its defensive end, shut the gate.
CAMERON’S CLAMPSGWS coach Leon Cameron supposedly coaches for talent. But make no mistake, he refuses to allow the opposition’s elite talent to perform on their own terms.
“Cameron’s Clamps” have become a major factor in the Giants’ recent success.
De Boer’s scalps in the past month are Lachie Neale, Marcus Bontempelli and Scott Pendlebury, who were kept to season-low disposal tallies. Prestia is in for a tough day.
The roles of Harry Perryman and Adam Kennedy as pseudo-taggers with a defensive mindset have been understated. They remain actively involved when GWS has possession. Shane Edwards and Bachar Houli are prime candidates for the pseudo taggers.
PREMIERSHIP QUARTERTHE start is critical for belief and the opportunity to commit a matchwinning lead, but it’s just as important to restart after the main break.
The “Premiership Quarter” has always been the third term in the Grand Final.
The winner of the third term in the past five years has won the flag.
The Tigers outscored Brisbane and Geelong by four and five goals respectively over the past two outings — after the halftime break. The Giants smashed Collingwood at the clearance to reap a four-goal to zero third quarter last Saturday.
THE MOMENTSEVERY Grand Final has moments that matter more than others. The Matthew Scarlett toe poke, Leo Barry’s intercept mark or Jeremy McGovern’s dare to create late in the Grand Final last year.
There’ll be opportunities for more legacy moments on Saturday. The game now gives star players more chances to be that player. It might be Martin or Cotchin, but I get the feeling Toby Greene will create another.
The climax to our season will be a cracker.
Will it be the regimented yet ruthless Richmond, or the big sound from Sydney’s west?
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