Which team(s) will be our challengers in 2020?

[one-eyed]

Geelong is trying to copy us.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/luke-dahlhaus-opens-up-on-shaun-grigg-joining-the-cats-chris-scotts-relationship-with-players-and-his-offseason/news-story/80437124b51d6dc992547eee22a25d44

[one-eyed]

Take a look through each club's 2020 premiership window

By Marc McGowan
afl.com.au
1 March 2020

YOU EITHER believe in premiership windows or you don't.

Whatever your belief, only two teams won on Grand Final day in the past decade when their average age was younger than 25 years – and just one of those averaged fewer than 100 games.

Luke Beveridge's Western Bulldogs of 2016 were an anomaly in every sense of the word, coming from seventh and winning four finals to claim a fairytale flag.

The average player in the Bulldogs' team was aged 24.4 years and had a meagre 82.1 matches' experience.

On the flipside, the numbers for seven of the past 10 premiers were north of 26 years and 120 games per footballer.

SEASON     CLUB         AGE     MATCHES
2010      Collingwood   24.2      101.2
2011      Geelong         27.3     145.8
2012      Sydney          26.5     131.4
2013      Hawthorn       26.8     139.5
2014      Hawthorn       26.8     137.5
2015      Hawthorn       27.8     166.8
2016      W.Bulldogs     24.4       82.1
2017      Richmond       25.1     104.1
2018      West Coast     26.3     120.8
2019      Richmond       26.5     125.6

Crystal-ball gazing ahead of each season is a largely impossible task but history at least provides a solid platform to predict what could happen.

AFL.com.au has selected a mock 'best 25' for each club – not for round one but factoring in all players who aren't already out for the season – to work out where they are placed in this regard.

The age and experience for those players at every team, as of March 1 this year, were then divided by 25 to reveal their side's numbers.

Where this is flawed is the 'best 25' process is subjective and each individual will have a different view, against the objectiveness of the statistics, but it at least provides a gauge.

Interestingly, only Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast clear both the 26 and 120 bars at this stage, with Collingwood and Richmond just shy.

Those two clubs should reach the criteria by Grand Final day, with 23 rounds and finals spread across seven months still to go.

For example, the respective numbers for the Tigers' round one team last year were 25.9 and 111.2 and their Grand Final side, as above, was 26.5 and 125.6.

AFL.COM.AU'S BEST 25 FOR EACH TEAM

CLUB                AGE      MATCHES
Adelaide           24.6        88.2
Brisbane           25.1        96.6
Carlton             25.4      106.7
Collingwood      25.9      113.1
Essendon          25.1       96.2
Fremantle         24.4       86.3
Geelong            26.2     127.4
Gold Coast        23.5       70.5
GWS Giants      25.0      101.8
Hawthorn         27.0      133.2
Melbourne        25.1        95.3
North Melb.      25.6      103.4
Port Adelaide    25.2      108.8
Richmond         25.6      110.7
St Kilda            24.9        94.2
Sydney             24.6       91.4
West Coast        26.5     130.0
W.Bulldogs        25.0       90.8

The same projection is much harder but somewhat possible when trying to figure out which teams will emerge as this year's finalists.

Geelong, Brisbane, Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast, Greater Western Sydney, Western Bulldogs and Essendon made the top eight in 2019.

The numbers for their round one side last year were: Cats (25.6/101.5), Lions (25.1/92.5), Tigers (25.9/111.2), Magpies (26/107.5), Eagles (25.2/93.3), Giants (25.7/89.4), Bulldogs (24.3/71.7) and Bombers (25.7/85.2).
2019 Toyota AFL Grand Final between Richmond and GWS at the MCG

Beveridge's Dogs are again the exception, while Adelaide, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Sydney missed out despite fielding sides older than 25 on average in their season-openers.

Conversely, the other bottom-10 clubs last year – Carlton, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Melbourne and St Kilda – all fielded teams younger than 25 on average in round one.

Nothing is certain but, on this measure, the Crows, Dockers, Saints, Suns and Swans might face an uphill battle to qualify for September.

Then again, remember the Bulldogs.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/379504/take-a-look-through-each-club-s-2020-premiership-window

[one-eyed]

2020 AFL Premiership

Richmond    $5.00
West Coast  $6.00
Collingwood $8.00
GWS           $9.00
Brisbane     $10
W.Bulldogs  $11
Geelong      $12
Hawthorn    $15
Melbourne   $26
Essendon    $29
St Kilda       $29
North Melb. $34
Port Adel.    $34
Adelaide      $41
Sydney        $41
Carlton        $51
Fremantle    $51
Gold Coast $251

https://www.bettingpro.com.au/afl-premiership-betting-odds

[georgies31]

Gws should be up with us $9 

[one-eyed]

Richmond are the most popular pick to go back-to-back with seven of our 19 tipsters picking them to win the flag, but 10 believe the cup could be headed interstate with West Coast (6) and GWS (4) popular.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-crystal-ball-news-corp-footy-experts-make-their-predictions-ahead-of-the-2020-season/news-story/47ec212538ef56668590435d7e3f0972

[one-eyed]

Five clubs can win the premiership in 2020: Lloyd

By SEN
3 March 2020

Matthew Lloyd believes five clubs can win the premiership in 2020.

Lloyd predicts Richmond and GWS, last year’s Grand Finalists, to vie for the flag once again.

West Coast, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs are the Essendon great’s other premiership fancies.

Despite finishing second last year, Lloyd is reluctant to mention Brisbane in the premiership conversation.

“The Giants can (win the premiership). They’ll be better for the experience,” Lloyd told Sportsday on Monday night.

“Richmond can go again. I think that the West Coast Eagles can win it. The Western Bulldogs can win it. And Collingwood.

“I won’t say Brisbane at this stage.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/03/five-clubs-can-win-the-premiership-in-2020-lloyd/

[one-eyed]

Every AFL club’s big burning question

March 4, 2020
Ben Waterworth
FOX SPORTS

RICHMOND

Burning question: Can any team usurp the Tigers?

If the Tigers bring the same selfless attitude, hunger, class, star-studded power and ridiculously high standards they showed in 2019, it’s genuinely hard to see any of the 17 other teams leapfrogging them. We know they have the drive to go to the well again, we know they can win big games without big stars (for example, Jack Riewoldt and Alex Rance last year) and we know they still have a reasonably young list. On probability alone, it’s hard to tip any other team for the flag other than Richmond, especially considering its players have barely had any injury problems over the summer. At this stage, if the Tigers don’t win the premiership, it’ll more likely be at their own doing, rather than a rival club rising to a level higher than Richmond’s.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-preview-predictions-fox-footy-podcast-every-club-burning-question-trade-news/news-story/a8a92ca31c8172587b46c681a7737e6d

[one-eyed]

Five teams can win the flag – but don’t expect a Blues surge

March 6, 2020
Ben Waterworth
FOX SPORTS

Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd and Brownlow Medallist Gerard Healy have named the five clubs they believe can win the flag this AFL season.

With a fortnight remaining until Round 1, Richmond remains the premiership favourites, according to Sportsbet, with West Coast, Collingwood and the Giants not far behind in the flag market.

Geelong and Brisbane, who finished first and second respectively on the ladder last year, are equal-fifth favourites with the bookies. But Lloyd “won’t say Brisbane (is a flag chance) at this stage”.

Speaking on 3AW’s Sportsday, Lloyd nominated the top-four teams on the Sportsbet flag market, as well as the Western Bulldogs — a team many AFL pundits believe can push for a top-four spot in 2020.

“The Giants can (win the premiership). They’ll be better for the experience,” Lloyd told 3AW’s Sportsday.

“Richmond can go there again.

“I think that the West Coast Eagles can win it. I’d say The Western Bulldogs can win it … and Collingwood.”

Healy added: “That’d be the five I’d have too … but the great thing about footy is there’ll be somebody else who does emerge.”

Meanwhile, AFL legend Leigh Matthews says he can’t see Carlton pushing for the top eight in 2020.

Under interim coach turned full-time coach David Teague, the Blues generated ample momentum late in 2019, winning six of their final 11 games of the season.

But Matthews said the Blues were more likely to feature in the bottom four on the ladder than the top eight this season.

“I think they can book their September holiday … I don't think they'll finish top half and play finals,” Matthews told Sportsday.

“They look like they're on the improve … if you can get Matthew Kreuzer on the field almost the whole season – Charlie Curnow, it’s obviously uncertain how much he's going to play – but if they get their best list on the field, I think there's a greater evenness in the competition there. (But) I don’t think they’re going to play finals, in my view.

“Five of the last seven they won were Freo, Swans, Suns, Crows and St Kilda, who all weren’t going that good in the last bit of the year.”

However Matthews said the Blues had still “removed themselves from being the bottom of the ladder chopping block”

“Sometimes that's the first step,” he said.

“(Sam) Docherty back from injury’s going to help a lot … I’m not sure whether Eddie (Betts) is at the stage of his career where he hasn’t got a lot left, (Jack) Martin should be helpful.

“(But) I reckon they’re closer to bottom four than finals.”

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-predictions-who-can-win-the-flag-premiership-odds-carlton-finals-chances-matthew-lloyd-leigh-matthews/news-story/8ca110482a1a5a0d521e1cdf9e4377d5

[lamington]

 For me a fit docherty will help Carlton sky rocket into bottom 4 of top 8 kinda like what Essendon did a couple of years back. But then they will get absolutely pumped in week 1 of finals

[one-eyed]

Think the AFL is a two-horse race? Look down the ladder and think again

Glenn Valencich
7News
8 March 2020

On the face of it an AFL season with the last two premiers heading in as favourites might feel at least a little ho-hum.

Richmond, with 21 of last year’s premiership players returning, are deservedly at the top of the pile.

Nipping at their heels are the Eagles following the addition of Tim Kelly and Nic Naitanui’s first solid pre-season in years.

Yet first thoughts haven’t deceived former Essendon captain Jobe Watson, the newest addition to Channel 7’s Thursday Night Football team for the 2020 season.

Last year West Coast were the ‘worst’ of five teams with at least 15 wins, while the Giants put a mixed 13-win campaign behind them to reach the grand final.

Reviving memories of the tightly fought 2016 race that saw even the seventh-placed Bulldogs claim 15 wins, Watson expects the Eagles and Tigers to have a number of challengers.

“The competition is so evenly matched and obviously Richmond were the standout and deserved the success that they got last year,” he told 7NEWS.com.au.

“But I think that if you look down the ladder you can make a case for a lot of teams.

“I think that that’s the beauty of the season this year.”

The stark contrast in style - particularly through the midfield - between the Tigers and West Coast is enough to prove his point.

Richmond have eschewed true contested and clearance footy for high-handball, fast-paced movement that overwhelms the opposition, while the Eagles go their own way and slice teams apart.

“Each group has its own idiosyncrasies based off the players that they have,” Watson said.

“They’ve got to be able to devise tactics to suit the styles and the strengths of those players. You see what Richmond have done (with leg speed), other teams have got their own different styles.

“I think that’s one of the most enjoyable things. That’s what people really enjoy, seeing how one style against another can combat it.

“That’ll be the interesting part of the season and it’s going to be such a close year with so many teams that have a real chance of being successful.”

While recent runners-up GWS and Collingwood remain obvious contenders alongside Geelong and surprise packets Brisbane and the Dogs, Watson is watching two hopefuls with interest.

Tom Mitchell’s return to the fold at Hawthorn could reveal the benefits of his year out in the form of a well-rounded group with teammates who rediscovered what it meant to fend for themselves.

And Watson expects the rejuvenation of Essendon’s coaching group - with 2021 senior coach Ben Rutten stepping up alongside new assistant coach Blake Caracella - to overcome any concerns about the state of their list.

The Bombers are still dealing with a number of recovering or injured players, with captain Dyson Heppell’s fitness levels unclear and Joe Daniher without a return date.

Essendon, seeking improvement after a 55-point loss to West Coast in last year’s elimination final, edged the Eagles in a pre-season game last week behind 11 different goalkickers.

“I think the way in which Blake, who has come across (from the Tigers), and Ben, who’s been in that Richmond system, they’re really trying to take what they learned from there and implement it into their own style at Essendon,” Watson said.

“They (nearly) kicked 100 points in their first game and they want to continue that. I think the balance of defence and attack will be interesting to see.

“Whether or not they are able to score powerfully with different types of personnel and find goals in different ways, rather than just having one or two avenues.”

https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/think-the-flag-is-a-two-horse-race-jobe-watson-says-look-down-the-ladder-and-think-again-c-734228

[one-eyed]

Historical clues to predicting AFL placements in 2020 (Part 1)

Gordon P Smith
theRoar.com.au
8 March 2020

3. Richmond Tigers

Premiers: 16-6, 113.7 per cent

Based on that third place alone Richmond has a great chance of returning to finals – slightly better than the team in second, oddly enough. But the five teams in this modern finals era who won the AFL title from third all made the top four the following year, although none of the five repeated as premiers: the Tigers themselves two years ago finished first (only to be upset by Mason Cox in the preliminary final), Hawthorn in 2015 finished third the next year, Brisbane concluded their trinity of titles from the third spot in 2003 with the second-place return to the grand final in 2004 (a loss to the Power), and both of Sydney’s 21st-century championships came from third place, and ironically both were followed with fourth-place finishes.

If you’re a Tiger-hater and you’re actively looking for evidence that supports your fervent desire to see Richmond return to its formerly traditional ninth-place position, there is this ray of hope for you to cling to. In the last 50 years there have been four occasions when three or more teams tied for the top of the ladder on wins and losses. Of course those ties were separated by percentage for finals seeding. Richmond was third last year, tied with Geelong and Brisbane with 16 wins and six losses. The other three such bronze medalists in three-ways were the 2016 Hawks, the 2014 Cats and the 1992 Magpies.

None of them made finals the next season. Hawthorn was 12th, Geelong tenth and Collingwood eighth when only six clubs made September. So you’ve got that going for you, which is nice.

All other things being equal in 2020
But on the evidence as well as our collective gut feelings about the strength of Damien Hardwick’s team coming into this season, with all other things being equal, write Richmond’s name in the double chance part of your finals bracket right now. In pen. But if none of those similar teams took first, expect these Tigers to be second going into September instead.

Read more including about Geelong, Brisbane & Collingwood here: https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/03/08/historical-clues-to-predicting-afl-placements-in-2020-part-1/

[one-eyed]

AFL Captains predictions

By Riley Beveridge
afl.com.au
10 March 2020

Which seven other clubs do you think can make this year's top eight?

17 – West Coast, Richmond, GWS Giants
16 – Collingwood
15 – Brisbane
13 – Western Bulldogs
10 – Port Adelaide
8 – Geelong
5 – Melbourne
3 – St Kilda
2 – Hawthorn
1 – Essendon, North Melbourne, Sydney

Which other club is most likely to reach the Grand Final?

7 – GWS Giants
5 – West Coast
4 – Richmond
2 – Collingwood

Who do you think will win the 2020 Brownlow Medal?

5 – Patrick Cripps (Carlton), 4 – Lachie Neale (Brisbane), 3 – Nat Fyfe (Fremantle), 2 – Dustin Martin (Richmond), Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs), 1 – Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong), Stephen Coniglio (GWS Giants)

Who do you think will win the 2020 Coleman Medal?

6 – Tom Lynch (Richmond), 5 – Jeremy Cameron (GWS Giants), 3 – Josh Kennedy (West Coast), 1 – Charlie Cameron (Brisbane), Ben Brown (North Melbourne), Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne), Lance Franklin (Sydney)

https://www.afl.com.au/news/384191/captains-predict-four-clubs-snubbed-for-finals-brownlow-tips-more

[one-eyed]

Brereton’s top eight:

1. West Coast
2. Richmond
3. GWS
4. Collingwood
5. Port Adelaide
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Brisbane
8. Geelong

“Logic would suggest Richmond, but it’s just so hard to win two in a row albeit they’re very difficult to win three out of four,” Brereton told SEN SA’s Kymbo and the Rooch.

“I’ll say West Coast to beat Richmond.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/10/dermott-breretons-top-8-and-premiership-predictions-for-2020/

[one-eyed]

Ch 7 commentators say the 2020 Grand Final will see...

Cameron Ling: Richmond def. West Coast
Brian Taylor: Richmond def. West Coast

Leigh Matthews: West Coast def. Richmond
Wayne Carey: West Coast def. Richmond
Abbey Holmes: West Coast def. Richmond
Basil Zempilas: West Coast def. Richmond
Gilbert McAdam: West Coast def. GWS
Daisy Pearce: West Coast def. GWS
James Brayshaw: West Coast def. Geelong
 
Jimmy Bartel: GWS def. Richmond
Jobe Watson: GWS def. Collingwood
Matthew Richardson: GWS def. West Coast
   
Luke Hodge: Collingwood def. Richmond

Campbell Brown: Western Bulldogs def. West Coast
   
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/channel-7-experts-predict-2020-afl-grand-finalists-brownlow-and-coleman-winners-c-737717

[one-eyed]

As for the premiership, Dal Santo says the Tigers will go back to back, defeating West Coast in the Grand Final.

See his top eight below.

1. Richmond

2. West Coast

3. Brisbane

4. Western Bulldogs

5. GWS

6. Collingwood

7. Geelong

8. Port Adelaide

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/03/11/nick-dal-santos-top-8-and-premiership-predictions-for-2020/