This stat tipped the last three premiers. It says only three AFL teams can win it allFoxsports
August 19, 2020
Max LaughtonOnly three teams are in the right form to win the 2020 AFL premiership, according to a stat that has helped predict the last three premiers.
The team on Fox Footy’s On the Couch have revealed which teams have met the ‘premiership profile’ over the last six rounds - and the top two sides on the ladder Port Adelaide and Brisbane haven’t.
They revealed only West Coast, Geelong and Richmond are currently ticking the right boxes to win the flag.
The premiership profile analyses teams in five key statistical categories.
If they rank in the top five in the AFL in that area, they tick that box. If you have three or more ticks, you fit the profile.
The stats are:
– Points from turnover differential (how much you score from turnovers compared to your opponent);
– Points from forward half (how much you score from chains that start in the forward half);
– Points from back half (how much you score from chains that start in the back half);
– Opposition scores per inside 50 (how inefficient opponents are when they go inside 50 against you);
– Post-clearance contested possession differential (how many contested possessions you win outside of stoppages compared to your opponent).
“These are the aspects of the game over history that are the most conducive to coming up with a winning formula,” St Kilda great Nick Riewoldt said on Fox Footy.
“You’re most likely to win if you’re good in these areas.”
In the last three seasons, the premier has always met the premiership profile, while five of the six Grand Finalists have met it.
WHO HAS MET THE PREMIERSHIP PROFILE?2019 – Richmond, Geelong, Collingwood
2018 – West Coast, Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Geelong
2017 – Richmond, Adelaide, Sydney, Port Adelaide
Note: These teams met the profile over the entire season.
So how are the 2020 contenders faring in recent weeks?
West Coast and Geelong are currently ticking four of the five boxes each, while Richmond ticks three.
Brisbane and St Kilda are just missing out, ticking two, while Port Adelaide only ticks one box over the past six weeks.
“We think there are three teams that are really elevated,” Riewoldt said.
“Three teams that can get you two ways, so if you take away their one method, they can get you with another method.”
As Melbourne champion Garry Lyon explained, the ladder leaders showed they didn’t have another method in their big Round 12 loss to Geelong.
“Port Adelaide’s the interesting one there. Their supporters are going ‘hang on a damn minute, we’re top of the ladder and have been for a long time’. Yet they’re only ticking one of these boxes,” Lyon said on Fox Footy.
“It may suggest they’re a bit one way, or have one way of going about it, which is good enough to win big games but when it doesn’t work as it didn’t on Friday night (against Geelong), whether they’ve got an alternative plan to go to is the question.”
WHICH TEAMS ARE TICKING THE PREMIERSHIP PROFILE BOXES?Points from turnover differential: West Coast, Geelong, Richmond, Brisbane
Points from forward half: West Coast, Richmond, Brisbane, St Kilda
Points from back half: West Coast, Richmond, Geelong
Opposition scores per inside 50: West Coast, Geelong
Post-clearance contested possession differential: Geelong, St Kilda, Port Adelaide
Brisbane great Jonathan Brown said: “That’s a big thing. Do you have a plan to go to when you’re not having your greatest day?
“I think Richmond’s the best example of a side that can win both ways, and has two modes. In last year’s finals series, the first two finals, they had to do a lot of their scoring from the back half.
“It’s not their ideal MO but they won anyway, and then of course on Grand Final day, they had the game on their terms and they just wiped GWS off the park. So they won with two different brands throughout September.”
While Geelong met the premiership profile last year, there’s a key difference this year, according to Brownlow medallist Gerard Healy.
“Geelong last year were a great front half side, they were turning the ball over and getting great groundballs, but they lacked that back half game, being able to score” he said.
“That’s one thing they have turned on its head – now they can win both ways.”
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-afl-finals-afl-grand-final-premiership-odds-predictor-champion-data-premiership-profile-2020/news-story/d1ce45ef3111bb82cad8d2157664b922
