Home ground advantage --- Richmond No.1 (Foxsports)

[one-eyed]

These teams have one big edge on the rest of the AFL. It could decide the flag

March 3, 2020
Max Laughton@maxlaughton
FOX SPORTS

There's a reason why you're given all the away teams when you forget to do your tips.

Home ground advantage (HGA) remains a major factor in today's AFL, and for the teams that really seem to master it, it can be the key behind their consistent finals berths.

So which teams have the most valuable HGA in the league, and how much of a benefit will it be in 2020? That's what we're here to find out.

WHAT IS HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE, AND WHAT CREATES IT?

In the recent book Footballistics, authors James Coventry and his team found that historically home teams have won 58.3 per cent of AFL matches. Interestingly this was very consistent with VFL results, where 58 per cent of games were won by the home team.

In itself that tells us something. The travel burden is much larger on teams now than it was in the VFL - a bus ride between Waverley and Kardinia Parks doesn't have quite the impact as flying from Brisbane to Perth. And yet home ground advantage has only slightly grown in the multistate footy era.

This is because the largest factor behind HGA is umpiring - or as former St Kilda coach Alan Richardson coined in recent years, the "noise of affirmation".

Footballistics found that between 2010 and 2017, teams hosting a side from interstate earned an extra two free kicks per game.

In particular, home teams were given 15 per cent more holding the ball frees (understandable when a crowd is yelling "BALL!" for one team but not the other) and 49 per cent more free kicks for deliberate out of bounds or running too far.

Further research in the book suggested those two extra free kicks were worth four points a game to the home side, or around 40 per cent of the total home ground advantage.

Yes, other factors play their part, like travel and ground familiarity. The latter can be particularly crucial for teams like Geelong, with its unique home dimensions.

But the numbers are consistent across global sport - umpiring isn't a majority of what makes up HGA, but it's a strong plurality.

HOME GROUND RECORDS (2017-19)

Richmond (MCG)                             40-5 (89% win rate)
Geelong Cats (GMHBA Stadium)        22-3 (88%)
West Coast Eagles (Optus Stadium)  21-6 (78%)
GWS Giants (Giants Stadium)        19-1-6 (73%)
Adelaide Crows (Adelaide Oval)       25-13 (66%)
Essendon (Marvel Stadium)             16-9 (64%)
Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)         22-15 (59%)
Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium) 21-15 (58%)
Fremantle (Optus Stadium)             14-11 (56%)
Sydney Swans (SCG)                      18-17 (51%)
Collingwood (MCG)                      24-1-22 (51%)
Hawthorn (MCG)                            15-16 (48%)
St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)           18-1-19 (47%)
Melbourne (MCG)                          16-21 (43%)
Brisbane Lions (Gabba)                 15-20 (43%)
North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium) 15-20 (43%)
Carlton (Marvel Stadium)                5-17 (23%)
Gold Coast Suns (Metricon Stadium) 6-21 (22%)

SO WHICH TEAMS ARE BEST PLACED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS?

THE NUMBERS (Home wins in a season, 2010-19)

9 or more wins = 100% of teams played finals

8 = 91.3%

7 = 50%

6 = 28%

5 = 15%

4 or fewer = 0%

If we know that eight home wins is enough to earn a finals berth more than 90 per cent of the time, let's try and figure out which teams are most likely to reach that mark.

Eight wins in 11 games means winning 72 per cent at home - and four teams have done that over the last three years.

Those teams are Richmond (89 per cent home win percentage at the MCG), Geelong (88 per cent at GMHBA Stadium), West Coast (78 per cent at Optus Stadium) and GWS (73 per cent at Giants Stadium).

Richmond is the most advantaged by this stat, because the 2019 premiers will play 14 of their 22 games this season at the MCG - 10 home games and four 'away'.

West Coast is the next-most advantaged, with 12 Optus Stadium games (including the away Western Derby).

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?

We'd suggest that Richmond is very likely to continue its hot streak at home.

Since 2017, the Tigers have gone a combined 29-4 in home games during the home and away season (9-2 in 2017 and 2019, and 11-0 in 2018). The easiest prediction of the year is them banking enough MCG wins to make the eight, even if they slide in 2020.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-preview-home-ground-advantage-in-afl-analysis-stats-teams-with-best-home-advantage-noise-of-affirmation-what-is-hga/news-story/cebf8140cbca412b746170aeeff07411