Caronavirus - COVID 19

[Francois Jackson]

So many compliments from WP. Good to see.

Trump is international WP, please refer to that in future or we may have to issue a warning.

I will say this only. NYC is slightly bigger than the Mornington peninsula give or take, and has 8/9 people.

Doesn't excuse the lack of testing, but if you have been to any of those boroughs before as I have  they live a pretty crappy and crowded life.

[Francois Jackson]

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-crisis-emotional-prime-minister-scott-morrison-pleaded-australia-to-stay-together-during-covid-19-pandemic-ng-b881507870z.amp

[WilliamPowell]

So many compliments from WP. Good to see.

Trump is international WP, please refer to that in future or we may have to issue a warning.

I will say this only. NYC is slightly bigger than the Mornington peninsula give or take, and has 8/9 people.

Doesn't excuse the lack of testing, but if you have been to any of those boroughs before as I have  they live a pretty crappy and crowded life.

The testing numbers in the US that is of the most concern is their health workers 300 tests per 10,000 workers... that is what is scary.

Point is we are so lucky here that our gifts (both Fed and State) are putting us the community first with our testing.

Other nations especially the US are not as lucky

And yes been to NYC (love Brooklyn) so well aware of the living arrangements in the bproughs)

[Andyy]

The testing numbers in the US that is of the most concern is their health workers 300 tests per 10,000 workers... that is what is scary.

Point is we are so lucky here that our gifts (both Fed and State) are putting us the community first with our testing.

Other nations especially the US are not as lucky

And yes been to NYC (love Brooklyn) so well aware of the living arrangements in the bproughs)

Few other countries about as good as us, and some better than us.

The country has a shortage of swab kits.

I have an email from DHHS basically saying to ration the tests and narrow case definition because of the dire shortage of swab kits.

A lot of countries in their flu season (such as the USA) probably don't have the stock available either because the swab kit is the same as the flu kit and they were probably swabbing lots of people for flu prior to the pandemic already.

Poses a challenge for Australia moving into the colder months and seasonal flu period. If we don't secure a supply or increase manufacture of swab kits locally then we will run out and it will be almost impossible to determine which patients have flu and which have COVID-19. I think Aus produces about 60,000+ kits/month? No idea if that's a 40hr/week factory but if it could theoretically work 24/7 we could possibly produce 250,000/month.


Need to get onto the COVID-19 ASAP before flu season muddies the water.


Peak of COVID-19 is predicted to hit around August and ICU beds to increase 2-3x fold but so far it's looking like we have started the flatten the curve and will actually be OK.


Can't get complacent though! Elsewise the curve steepens again...

[WilliamPowell]

Terrific announcement by the Andrews govt offering free hotel accommodation for our "hospital heroes" (all health workers not just doctors and nurses)

Great idea. Congrats to, to the SA govt who did the same thing a few weeks back 

[mightytiges]

If we can keep our (black) curve below 300 on the log vertical axis (<7500 cases) then we will have "flattened the curve".


http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-world-norm

The results of the testing are 5 days behind which would correspond to the start of Stage 3 lockdowns. Victoria had 'only' 20 new cases in the past 24 hours which is a significant drop off from the week before.

However, we had 142 selfish gits fined in Victoria for not self-isolating upon return to Oz.

The total cases in Oz would've been 10% lower if the NSW government had done its job and not let infected passengers on the Ruby Princess to freely waltz off the ship and spread the virus around the country.

[Damo]

I’m still stuck overseas ..

Support for us has been nothing short of disgraceful .. ZERO financial support , zero consular assistance/info etc , zero help in regards to flights

Last post/update from the Manila consular was 6 days ago lol 😂

I came here for a funeral and a four night trip is fast approaching a month , with no end in site

LOL at the performance in making flights available for us to get home .. we bail out qantas with near enough to a billion dollars, and they can’t send flights .. yes they are going to start to major hubs from this week , which doesn’t help here one iota , as Hong Kong isn’t currently allowing transit ..

It’s ok to send plane loads of crayfish etc to China , but sending a flight to Manila to pick up stranded Aussies is too hard .. dollars talk

Never been so upset to be an Australian .. and Scomo gets on the news calling us fools .. stuff you Scomo you stuffwit

The same idiot that was in Hawaii during the bushfires .. bet if he was overseas a flight would be organised

[mightytiges]

I’m still stuck overseas ..

Support for us has been nothing short of disgraceful .. ZERO financial support , zero consular assistance/info etc , zero help in regards to flights

Last post/update from the Manila consular was 6 days ago lol 😂

I came here for a funeral and a four night trip is fast approaching a month , with no end in site

LOL at the performance in making flights available for us to get home .. we bail out qantas with near enough to a billion dollars, and they can’t send flights .. yes they are going to start to major hubs from this week , which doesn’t help here one iota , as Hong Kong isn’t currently allowing transit ..

It’s ok to send plane loads of crayfish etc to China , but sending a flight to Manila to pick up stranded Aussies is too hard .. dollars talk

Never been so upset to be an Australian .. and Scomo gets on the news calling us fools .. stuff you Scomo you stuffwit

The same idiot that was in Hawaii during the bushfires .. bet if he was overseas a flight would be organised

Take care, Damo.

Have you tried contacting your local federal MP here in Oz to try and get the attention of the Feds to do something to help you?

[WilliamPowell]

Take care Damo

Hope things get sorted so you can get home ASAP

[mightytiges]

Professor Murphy today said that without the current mitigation measures (quarantine + isolation + social distancing), their theoretical modelling (with >23m Aussies getting the virus) shows there would be a peak of 35,000+ ICU admissions per day. With the current measures that drops to <5000 per day at its peak.

Murphy also said the current strategy is trying to suppress the virus and they're not looking at the goal of a herd immunity at the moment (although the latter was a bit unclear). That's an issue if we don't develop a herd immunity as we then need a vaccine developed before opening society up again which may take another 12-18 months to come to fruition. Yet as Morrison said today the economic welfare measures have a finite lifetime (which they have been saying is six months). What happens post-six months if there's no vaccine by then?

--------------------------------------------------

Go to "Economic stimulus measures meant to have a 'finite life'" in below link:

At the time, Dr Murphy was talking about our current plan to identify, control, and isolate every case using aggressive social distancing restrictions, and the pros and cons of doing this until a vaccine is found.

Murphy: "Unlike pandemic influenza, where the strategy was to control and contain until the vaccine came, because we knew the vaccine would come, we don't know if and when a vaccine will come with this virus. If it does, that's a beautiful way out."

The Prime Minister jumped in to add to this answer. He indicated that the economic stimulus measures put in place by the government had a "finite life" and were not designed to continue forever.

Morrison: "The National Cabinet has to also consider the ability to actually continue to run the country under such a scenario. And as you know, the economic lifeline that is being provided through the many things that are being done, particularly at the federal level, but also at the state level, they have a finite life. And obviously if those scenarios were to come forward and it would involve a duration that went well beyond all of the Government's capacity to support that, then that would render such an option not workable.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/coronavirus-live-blog-covid-19-australia-updates/12127208

[Diocletian]

Now it's a real national crisis...



 

[one-eyed]

Theoretical modelling shows some 36,000 people would have died from coronavirus in Victoria if physical-distancing restrictions were not put into place, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has said.

The modelling was done by epidemiologists from the Department of Health and Human Services and experts from the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity and Monash University.

The modelling shows 650 people could have died each day at the state's coronavirus peak without physical-distancing measures.

It indicates what would have happened under constant conditions if the only measures to contain the virus were isolating known infections, a travel ban and quarantining returned travellers.

"Without the physical distancing measures that have been put in place … we would have got to 58,000 infections per day at the peak," Professor Sutton said.

Professor Sutton said the modelling showed 10,000 intensive care beds would have been needed and 9,200 Victorians would have presented to hospitals every day.

He said because physical-distancing rules were imposed, the state was now unlikely to reach 1,500 cases.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/victoria-records-one-new-confirmed-coronavirus-case/12163658

[one-eyed]

Australia’s chief medical officer warns of ‘permanent’ coronavirus second wave risk.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/schools-tracing-app-focus-of-virus-probe-c-993535

[Rampsation]

2nd wave is almost a certainty. Once you open international borders its all over red rover.

[1965]

Anybody download the COVIDsafe app yet.


I can't get past the phone no. It keeps telling me "Invalid phone no" with or without the leading zero.


Any ideas?