Okay a bit messy but here's what has been said today regarding the Doherty Institute modelling:
Summary:- Government says early interventions with short, sharp lockdowns, are the most cost-effective way to handle the virus
- The modelling is defined as an infectious disease model and the health impact reported are all COVID-19 related
- Modelling suggests when 70% of the population is vaccinated lockdowns can ease
- Data suggests younger adults are peak transmitters of COVID-19
Sources: The Doherty Institute & SBS-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Professor McVernon from Doherty Institute says their modelling found that at 50-60% vaccination, there would still be “rapidly growing outbreaks that would be very difficult to control” - she says that above 70%, that risk is far lower
Jodie McVernon: "Vaccination alone is a very big part of the answer but it is not the whole answer. We must maintain ongoing public health and social measures"
Professor McVernon makes the point that real-world data comparing the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines shows they have very similar numbers on reducing hospitalisation and deaths from COVID
Chief medical officer Paul Kelly on reopening Australia and removing COVID restrictions: “We need to move with that four phase plan to a different phase - we need to accept that there will be cases, we need to accept that there will be hospitalisations, and there will be deaths”
https://twitter.com/JoshButler/https://twitter.com/murpharoo/status/1422382810929586178During the presentation, the Doherty Institute said risk was clear.
“We know this from looking around the world for 18 months. Yes, children can get covid and we are concerned about them becoming infectious but they’re not as good as their parents are,’’ she said.
“In this case it’s really the 20-39 years that are peak spreaders. They will bring covid to their children and to their parents.”
The new research warns that while “younger adults are peak transmitters of COVID-19, older adults experience the most severe health impacts”.
“As supply allows, extending eligibility to all adults (16+) offers the greatest potential to slow down transmission,’’ the research states.
Doherty Institute Professor Jodie McVernon said the key message was that immunising younger people should be a priority.
“This is a strategy that basically follows where we are right now but brings forward immunisation of the 30-39 group to the beginning of September and 16-29 to early in October,’’ she said.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/pm-reveals-new-aussie-superspreaders-driving-delta-outbreaks/news-story/c118427321c992343ac32f169bfa4554Key Doherty Institute slides:
Sources: Doherty Institute & Casey Briggs (ABC) Modelling notes that the Original strains could be suppressed without vaccination. Not the case now, the Doherty Institute finds.
https://twitter.com/naveenjrazik/status/1422384787503779840----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cost to the economy“Treasury has undertaken analysis of the various COVID scenarios modelled by Doherty,” Mr Frydenberg said.
“The economic cost comes down significantly if governments work quickly to get on top of the virus.
“Early interventions, short, sharp lockdowns, are the most cost-effective way to handle the virus.
“What Treasury have found is that at 50 per cent and 60 per cent vaccination rates, it’s five times more costly should governments not move early to get on top of the virus, and that’s the short, sharp lockdowns that we’re now seeing in Queensland, that we’ve seen in Victoria and that we’ve seen in South Australia.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/slow-lockdowns-five-times-more-costly-than-snap-ones/video/62e23a36b4edd98797492634b2faa557
