Caronavirus - COVID 19

[Andyy]

Got my Pfizer booster yesterday at Sandown. Didn't have to wait at all.

How's the arm?

Mine is bloody sore and heavy haha. Aside from that no side effects. I was a little apprehensive about Pfizer after seeing a few of my softer colleagues succumb to the mild side effects.

The AZ I've have previously was much easier.

[mightytiges]

Got my Pfizer booster yesterday at Sandown. Didn't have to wait at all.

How's the arm?

Mine is bloody sore and heavy haha. Aside from that no side effects. I was a little apprehensive about Pfizer after seeing a few of my softer colleagues succumb to the mild side effects.

The AZ I've have previously was much easier.

Arm is fine  .

This was my third Pfizer jab and I've had no effects whatsoever each time. Really the only thing is the needle entry point feels a tiny bit tender if I push on that point firmly but that's being very picky.

[one-eyed]

VIC - 2005 new cases today. Reff=1.02. 398 in hospital. 72 (112 including non-infectious) in ICU (39 on ventilators). 10 deaths.

         - A mask mandate for indoor settings has been introduced.

         
         

NSW - 5715 new cases. Reff=2.05. 347 in hospital. 45 in ICU (13 on ventilators). 1 death.

         - NSW mandating masks, QR codes and density limits for hospitality from Dec 27 to Jan 27.

         https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-23/nsw-records-5715-cases-and-1-death-covid-19/100721460
         

         
         

SA - 484 new local cases. 7 in hospital including a child.

QLD - 365 new local cases. 94 in hospital. 1 in ICU.

ACT - 85 new cases. 3 in hospital.

TAS - 26 new local cases. 1 in hospital.

NT - 10 new local cases. 11 in hospital. 1 in ICU.

Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 76.4%
16+:  90.8% 

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

VIC - 2095 new cases. Reff=1.13. 397 in hospital. 75 (115 including non-infectious) in ICU (40 on ventilators). 8 deaths.

NSW - 5612 new cases. Reff=2.00. 382 in hospital. 53 in ICU (12 on ventilators). 1 death.

SA - 688 new local cases. 8 in hospital including two children.

QLD - 589 new local cases. 3 in hospital with covid symptoms (110 non-infectious in hospital & 268 are being cared for at their homes).

ACT - 102 new cases. 2 in hospital.

TAS - 27 new local cases. 1 in hospital.

NT - N/A.

Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 76.5%
16+:  90.9% 

-----------------------------------------------------------

NSW (5,612 today)
NSW (+167 on last week, now 382)

Through the Jun-Oct wave, daily cases roughly followed current hospital admissions.

We can see a massive in cases , with hospitalisations not following to such an extreme extent.



However, cases are not instantly admitted to hospital. There appears to be around a 7day lag. Accounting for this ~ lag, we'd currently have in the range of 800-1000 people in hospital in NSW if the Jun-Oct wave was followed.



We've used a log scale above, to show how things can grow. The current hospital no in NSW is 382, up 78% on last week. If we assume that rise was caused by cases a week ago, cases rose 225% (in a week) causing the 78% hospital jump. This shows cases are growing at a faster rate.

There are still concerns however. Let's say cases and hospitalisations continue to rise at the same rate for the next few weeks. And *78%* growth in the last 7 days occurs in the next week and then week after.

In 7 days: 679 in
In 14 days: 1,206
In 21 days: 2,143

Also, If we calculate % of ACTIVE cases in Hospital, using active cases from 1 week ago (7d lag)...

We get 3.99% hospital / 0.55% ICU rate. This has dropped from 7.3% and 1.7% at the end of Oct.

If the rate was still 7.3% using logic there would be 699 in currently (there is 382).



https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

Australians will be able to get their COVID-19 vaccine booster shots after four months from early next year (Jan 4), and then three months from the end of January.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-vaccination-boosters-interval-shortened-four-months-greg-hunt/04955cb5-0e34-41de-9bee-26b7ff0cf7c0

[WilliamPowell]

Australians will be able to get their COVID-19 vaccine booster shots after four months from early next year (Jan 4), and then three months from the end of January.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-vaccination-boosters-interval-shortened-four-months-greg-hunt/04955cb5-0e34-41de-9bee-26b7ff0cf7c0

 

Brings mine forward by a month. Was due 30th January

Will now get done 5th January

[Assange Tiger 😎]

Only a few more weeks of being unvaccinated for you

[WilliamPowell]

Only a few more weeks of being unvaccinated for you

Sorry, was directed at me?

I am fully vaccinated. Wouldn't have been allowed into QLD on Tuesday if I wasn't

Booster time.

[one-eyed]

VIC - 1608 new cases. Reff=1.39. 374 in hospital. 77 (115 including non-infectious) in ICU (43 on ventilators). 2 deaths.

         
         

NSW - 6394 new cases. Reff=2.18. 458 in hospital. 52 in ICU (15 on ventilators).

         
         

SA - 774 new local cases. 17 in hospital. 3 in ICU.

QLD - 709 new local cases. 7 in hospital.

ACT - 71 new cases. 1 in hospital.

TAS - 44 new local cases. 1 in hospital.

NT - 12 new local cases. 18 in hospital. 1 in ICU.

Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 76.6%
16+:  91.0% 

Booster:
12+:  9.1%

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

VIC - 1999 new cases. Reff=1.47. 368 in hospital. 80 (119 including non-infectious) in ICU (38 on ventilators). 3 deaths.

         
         

NSW - 6324 new cases. Reff=2.13. 520 in hospital. 55 in ICU (17 on ventilators). 3 deaths (1 from omicron).

          NSW's reintroduced density caps in hospitality venues start today. 

         
         

SA - 784 new local cases [yesterday]. 17 in hospital. 3 in ICU.

        SA has brought in density limits of 1 person per 4m at cafes and restaurants. Also crowd caps of 25k at Adelaide Oval.

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-27/business-sa-compensation-call-amid-omicron-covid-restrictions/100726648

QLD - 709 new local cases. 4 in hospital.

ACT - 189 new cases. 1 in hospital.

TAS - 35 new local cases. 1 in hospital.

NT - 12 new local cases. 15 in hospital. 1 in ICU.

Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 76.6%
12+:  90.0%
16+:  91.0% 

Booster:
12+:  9.1%

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

VIC - 2738 new cases. Reff=1.48. 361 in hospital. 69 (124 including non-infectious) in ICU (33 on ventilators). 4 deaths.

NSW - 6062 new cases. Reff=1.76. 557 in hospital. 60 in ICU (19 on ventilators). 1 death.

QLD - 1158 new local cases. 6 in hospital.

SA - 842 new local cases [yesterday]. 23 in hospital. 4 in ICU. 1 death.

ACT - 252 new cases. 3 in hospital.

TAS - 43 new local cases. 1 in hospital.

NT - 16 new local cases. 20 in hospital. 1 in ICU.


Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 76.7%
12+:  90.1%

Booster:
12+:  9.6%

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

VIC - 3767 new cases. Reff=1.53. 397 in hospital. 62 (106 including non-infectious) in ICU (28 on ventilators). 5 deaths.

          Today there were 1,179 cases in Victoria aged 20-29. If 20-29s made up the entire VIC population, this would be equal
          to 7,842 new cases today. Or 26.0% of todays cases (population adjusted).
          In contrast, kids 0-9 which were making up >20% cases a month ago today made up 8.09%.

         
         


NSW - 11,201 new cases. Reff=1.77. 625 in hospital. 61 in ICU (23 on ventilators). 3 deaths.

         
         

QLD - 1589 new local cases. 8 in hospital.

         

SA - 1471 new local cases. 37 in hospital. 5 in ICU.

ACT - 138 new cases. 4 in hospital.

         

TAS - 55 new local cases. 1 in hospital.

         

NT - 16 new local cases [yesterday]. 20 in hospital. 1 in ICU.


Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 76.7%
12+:  90.1%

Booster:
12+:  9.7%

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

VIC - 5137 new cases. Reff=1.73. 395 in hospital. 55 (100 including non-infectious) in ICU (23 on ventilators). 13 deaths.

         
         

NSW - 12,226 new cases. Reff=1.74. 746 in hospital. 63 in ICU (24 on ventilators). 1 death.

         
         

QLD - 2222 new local cases. 29 in hospital.

SA - 1374 new local cases. 37 in hospital. 4 in ICU. 1 death* (two-year old who was covid positive but it's before the coroner so cause of death is still unknown)

ACT - 253 new cases. 6 in hospital.

TAS - 92 new local cases. 3 in hospital.

NT - N/A. 20 in hospital. 1 in ICU.


Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 76.7%
12+:  90.2%

Booster:
12+:  9.8%

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau

[one-eyed]

New definition of a close contact:

- Spent 4 hours with a confirmed case in a household-like setting.
- Confirmed cases to isolate for 7 days & return a negative rapid test on day 6.
- Symptomatic close contacts to get a PCR test.
- Asymptomatic close contact to get a rapid test, then a PCR test if positive.
- Close contacts to isolate for 7 days from exposure date.

This definition will come into force from midnight tonight in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and the ACT. Tasmania will bring in this definition on 1 January, while WA and NT will confirm their status in coming days.

Sources: ABC & 9News (https://twitter.com/ElizaEdNews)

[one-eyed]

VIC - 5919 new cases. Reff=2.12. 428 in hospital. 54 (97 including non-infectious) in ICU (21 on ventilators). 7 deaths.

         
         

NSW - 21,151 new cases. Reff=2.06. 832 in hospital. 69 in ICU (19 on ventilators). 6 deaths.

          Of those in NSW's ICUs, 39 are not vaccinated (56.5%).

         
         

QLD - 3118 new local cases. 64 in hospital for covid (126 including patients that are also covid positive). 1 in ICU.

SA - 2093 new local cases. 44 in hospital. 4 in ICU. 2 deaths.

ACT - N/A. 6 in hospital.

TAS - 137 new local cases. 4 in hospital.

NT - 37 new local cases [yesterday]. 20 in hospital.


Fully vaccinated Oz population:
Total: 76.7%
12+:  90.3%

Booster:
12+:  10.3%

https://twitter.com/covidbaseau