According to this article it's 9 wins and a good percentage.
HOW MANY WINS WILL IT TAKE TO PLAY FINALS IN 2020?Max Laughton
Foxsports
29 May 2020The 12-win bar in a 22-game season is based on history; so our best bet is to look at history for the 17-game season, too.
To do that, we’re going to look at where every AFL ladder since 1994 (when the top eight was introduced) sat after each team had played 17 games.
Now, this won’t be perfect. That’s because in a 22-game fixture, it’s not as if everyone has played each other once in the first 17 games. Some double-up games will have already occurred; some teams’ only meeting for the season might be in the final few rounds.
That in turn can impact the ladder, because you might not have played the eventual wooden spooner yet, while your closest rival has.
It’s still our best bet, so here’s the data.
Wins after 17 games by the AFL team sitting eighth (1994-2019)11 wins: 1
10 wins and a draw: 1
10 wins: 4
9 wins and a draw: 1
9 wins: 17
8 wins and a draw: 0
8 wins: 2
Average: 9.2 wins
There’s a clear pattern here. It’s pretty simple in most seasons - win a majority of your first 17 games (ie a 9-8 record) and you’re in the top eight. Put simply, this year’s bar is nine wins.
Just like how in a 22-game season, the actual bar is just above 12 wins, you generally want more than nine to be sure.
Still, we can reasonably expect that in 2020, teams should be aiming at a minimum of nine wins to play finals footy. Obviously, win more if you can, but that should be enough. (Having a good percentage will help too.)
SO WHO DOES THIS HELP THE MOST?It’s impossible to know for certain, but it seems as if home ground advantage is actually more important under the 17-game format.
This helps teams with the greatest home ground advantage, like Geelong, West Coast and Richmond - and based on last year, Brisbane too.
Richmond’s recent dominance at the MCG - 10 straight wins, and a 35-3 record at the ground since July 2017 - goes without saying.
In a 22-game season, it’s incredibly hard to go undefeated at home. Only 10 teams have done it since 1994:
- Richmond in 2018;
- Hawthorn in 2014
- Brisbane in 2002;
- Carlton in 1995;
- Geelong a ridiculous five times (2004, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014);
- The weirdest of all, Richmond in 1998, who went 11-0 at home but 1-10 away and therefore missed the top eight. (We don’t talk about this is enough.)
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-fixture-analysis-how-many-wins-to-make-the-top-eight-in-17game-fixture-home-ground-advantage-in-afl/news-story/4a0739857bc84176c85fedebab920c58
