The Run Home after Round 9: Where every AFL club will finish

[WilliamPowell]

The Run Home after Round 9: Where every AFL club will finish and the projected final top eight

Max Laughton
August 3, 2020 2:20pm

We’re officially over halfway done with the 2020 season, and almost every AFL club has just eight games left to play. It’s time to start looking towards the finish line.
This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw and which clubs could be in trouble based on a tough run of games?

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total.

These projections are likely to change slightly when the fixture after Round 12 is confirmed. For now, games not yet scheduled have been analysed based on playing at a neutral venue, while known fixtures take home ground advantage into account as normal.

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1 v 4): Port Adelaide v St Kilda

First Elimination Final (5 v : Richmond v Collingwood

Second Elimination Final (6 v 7): Geelong Cats v GWS Giants

Second Qualifying Final (2 v 3): Brisbane Lions v West Coast Eagles

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

Note: Percentage is taken into account when teams have the same number of projected wins.

1. Port Adelaide (11.8 projected wins)

2. Brisbane Lions (11.85)

3. West Coast Eagles (11)

4. St Kilda (10.3)

5. Richmond (10.2)

6. Geelong Cats (9.7)

7. GWS Giants (9.6)

8. Collingwood (9.3)

9. Western Bulldogs (9.1)

10. Essendon (8.85)

11. Melbourne (7.9)

12. Gold Coast Suns (7.75)

13. Carlton (7.75)

14. Hawthorn (7.2)

15. Fremantle (6.55)

16. North Melbourne (5.85)

17. Sydney Swans (5.9)

18. Adelaide Crows (2.4)

5. RICHMOND (5-3-1, 117%)

Remaining games: Brisbane Lions at MS, Port Adelaide at AO, Gold Coast Suns at Gabba, Adelaide Crows at TBD, Essendon at TBD, Fremantle at TBD, Geelong Cats at TBD, West Coast Eagles at TBD

Remaining fixture difficulty: Fifth-hardest

The Tigers aren’t safe in the eight just yet, with a couple of very tricky games coming up against fellow contenders. If they were to drop both games to the Lions and Power, it’ll be getting pretty tight.

There’s also the question of where the premiers will play the two WA sides. If they have to head west, it would make things much more difficult - you could fairly suggest West Coast would be favoured if the game is played in Perth, but Richmond would be favoured if it’s played in Queensland.

Last Wednesday night’s win over the Bulldogs showed their class, and after the last few years we’d feel pretty foolish tipping against the Tigers. But a top four berth is no sure thing, and even in this bizarre season, it’s much harder to win the flag from outside the four than from in it.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.2 wins, finishing fifth

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predicted-ladder-2020-the-run-home-predicted-top-eight-after-round-9-finals-series-final-ladder-projections/news-story/27671abce15d9eb33edc14032899952a

[Gracie]

Have they factored in our 2 points for the draw. If not that would edge us in front of Saints in their prediction

[pmac21]

Saints will falter, nothing surer

[Diocletian]

Sainters are gonna Saint...