WOAH, WE’RE HALFWAY THERE - SO WHO’S LIVIN’ ON A PRAYER?Max Laughton, Ben Waterworth and David Zita
Foxsports
31 May 2021Just like that, half of the season has come and gone, with every club having now played 11 of their 22 home and away matches.
Perhaps now people will stop tweeting ‘it’s only [whatever month it is], stop worrying about the finals’; because half a season tells us a hell of a lot about the premiership race.
If you want to win the flag, you need to finish in the top four - only the 2016 Bulldogs have done it from outside of there under the existing finals format. And it’s very hard to make up ground if you’re not close after 11 games.
Just look at Richmond, who had to fight hard just to get past Adelaide and sneak back into eighth. They have a pretty easy draw in the second half of the season, but it’s still going to be extremely difficult for them to make the top four.
They’re trying to catch Brisbane (8-3 record, 133.5%) and/or Geelong (8-3, 130.6%); meanwhile the Tigers are 6-5 with a percentage of 102.4%.
That percentage gap is worth an extra win; they’ll need to win three more games than the Lions or Cats from here to pass them on the ladder.
Is that possible? Yes. Is that likely? No.
And as history tells us, if you’re in the top four through half a season, you’re likely to remain there; but not a certainty.
HOW MANY OF THE TOP FOUR AFTER 11 GAMES FINISHED IN THE TOP FOUR? (18-team era)2019: Two (#2 GWS and #4 West Coast out, #5 Brisbane and #6 Richmond in)
2018: Two (#3 Melbourne and #4 Sydney out, #7 Collingwood and #10 Hawthorn in)
2017: Four
2016: Two (#1 North Melbourne and #4 Western Bulldogs out, #5 Hawthorn and #6 GWS in)
2015: Three (#4 Collingwood out, #6 Hawthorn in)
2014: Two (#1 Port Adelaide and #4 Collingwood out, #6 Geelong and #7 Fremantle in)
2013: Three (#4 Essendon out, #5 Fremantle in)
2012: Two (#3 West Coast and #4 Essendon out, #5 Adelaide and #6 Hawthorn in)
Average: 2.5 mid-season top four members remain in the top four
As you can see, we should expect a change or two - unsurprisingly it’s the fourth-ranked team that most frequently drops out of the top four. That makes sense given they’re the closest to the chasing pack.
In contrast, only three times has a top two team at mid-season dropped out of the top four. Two of those teams did extremely well anyway - GWS in 2019 made the Grand Final, and Port Adelaide in 2014 was a kick away from beating Hawthorn in the prelim.
Only North Melbourne in 2016, the perennial outlier in these discussions after falling from 10-1 to 12-10, truly collapsed.
So, the lessons:
- Melbourne (10-1) and the Western Bulldogs (9-2) are almost locked into the double chance, or at least making the final four in September;
- We’d expect one of Brisbane (8-3) or Geelong (8-3) to drop out of the top four, though it’s not a certainty;
- The most likely teams to come in are unsurprisingly the ones sitting fifth and sixth right now, Port Adelaide (8-3) and Sydney (7-4)
- It’s very uncommon to come from outside the top six at mid-season to make the top four, so West Coast (6-5) and Richmond (6-5) would be going against historic trends.
You can also get a sense of how hard it is to crack into the top four by looking at how often teams get there from specific records.
Using data from 1995-2019, these are the historic chances:
9 wins, 2 losses: 86% to make top 4, 100% to make top 8
8-3: 60% to make top 4, 93% to make top 8
7-4: 47% to make top 4, 82% to make top 8
6-5: 15% to make top 4, 58% to make top 8
5-6: 4% to make top 4, 25% to make top 8
4-7: 0% to make top 4, 12% to make top 8
This all makes sense at a glance; at most, one of the four 5-6 teams (Essendon, GWS, Fremantle and St Kilda) will end up making the eight, while you’d suggest the top four race is down to the current top six (with Sydney the rank outsider).
As for Carlton, Gold Coast and Adelaide - the latter two were always unlikely to make it this year, but the Blues need to get on a run right now if they’re to live up to expectations.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-round-11-analysis-talking-points-reaction-top-stories-essendon-rebuild-run-home-top-four-chances-melbourne/news-story/741d00701562c545f374956731ee3379
