Who will be our challengers in 2021?

[one-eyed]

HOW MUCH LONGER CAN GEELONG CONTEND BEFORE IT DROPS AWAY?

Garry Lyon believes the age profile of Chris Scott’s squad provides some sort of concern relating to the length of time they can continue to challenge at the top.

“They are going to have 10 players 30-plus when this season starts and then during the year (Gary) Rohan and (Mitch) Duncan will make it 12,” Lyon said on SEN Breakfast.

“They’ve gone and recruited older. I know age is just a number…

“They’ve been close. They keep putting themselves in a position but haven’t got there.

“How much longer can they maintain the ability to contend right at the pointy end before it drops away?

“All these star players are getting older. I’m not betting against them, but how long can they keep this going?”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/02/04/how-much-longer-can-geelong-contend-before-it-drops-away/

[one-eyed]

West Coast champion Peter Sumich believes the Eagles’ premiership window is beginning to close.

Sumich suggests the Eagles need to make the most of an ageing team, particularly after having sacrificed multiple first-round draft selections to secure Tim Kelly.

“They should win the premiership,” he told the TABtouch Lounge on SEN Track.

“They’ve gone and got Kelly, they’ve got superstars in every area - forward, back and mid.

"If they don’t win it this year it’ll be a big disappointment. I thought they should have won it last year, (but) they bowed out pretty quickly to Collingwood in that first final.”

With star forward Josh Kennedy in the twilight of his career, Sumich says the Eagles must strike now before facing the prospect of a rebuild.

“They’ve put all their eggs in one basket right now, trying to win one," he said.

“Josh Kennedy, Shannon Hurn and the like are going to retire in 12 or 24 months time, it’s their time now to win it.

“(Beyond that) they’ll have to look at rebuilding, and where they’re at with that, I don’t know … the young kids coming through haven’t played a heap."

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/02/13/is-west-coasts-premiership-window-closing/

[georgies31]

Not sure about winning it last year they don't like it when going gets tuff.

[one-eyed]

The AFL hype ladder: Ranking the buzz around every club heading into 2021

Ben Waterworth and Matt Balmer
Fox Sports
February 14th, 2021 6:32 pm

Some clubs will enter the 2021 season with plenty of momentum yet, subsequently, grand expectations.

Others won’t have a lot of buzz around them, either due to questionable trade periods or a realisation they need to take stock before taking flight.

Foxfooty.com.au assesses every AFL club and ranks them 1-18 on the pre-season hype ladder.

1. Carlton

The rebuild phase is over – and now it is time to deliver on the expectations. Some fans thought 2020 might be the year the Blues jump up, so more will be expected of them this year. The Teague train needs to stop all stations to the top eight in 2021 – and many believe they have all tools and momentum to achieve that. If Sam Walsh continues to stamp his authority on the competition after being the No.1 selection just two years ago and Harry McKay proves to be a more difficult player to stop up forward, the Blues could live up to the hype.

2. Geelong

There’s certainly no excuses for Geelong to not be at the pointy end of the ladder this year, given the big inclusions across the off-season. While Gary Ablett has departed, Chris Scott’s side has added Jeremy Cameron, Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins in the attacking half of the ground. It will give the Cats extra spark as they aim to lift the cup after finishing as the runners-up to Richmond in 2020. It also means not many pundits will be leaving Geelong out of their top four when they file their season predictions, With Tom Hawkins and Cameron close to goal, expect the Cats to have one of the league’s most potent attacks this year.

3. Richmond

Former Hawthorn player Ben Dixon’s outrageous call ahead of the 2019 Grand Final that Richmond would claim a three-peat of premierships was met with laughter. Since then, the Tigers have won two premierships and are on track for a third. Everything still went the Tigers’ way last year despite hubs, a global pandemic and off-field issues plagued the club. There will be plenty of focus on coach Damien Hardwick after his own decisions in recent months. But on-field, the Tigers still appear to be the best team in the competition.

4. Western Bulldogs

It’s one heck of a midfield they’ve put together, following the inclusion of Adam Treloar and the retainment of Josh Dunkley. The Bulldogs struggled in the early parts last year before flicking a switch and jumping into the finals. Marcus Bontempelli finished the season superbly, while Mitch Wallis stepped up in a new forward role. Get No. 1 pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Aaron Naughton to develop a strong forward 50 chemistry and the Dogs have all the tools to go deeper into September.

5. Brisbane Lions

Importantly Brisbane enters 2021 with a clean bill of health, perfectly placing it to progress to the last Saturday in September after falling a few hurdles short. The Lions again grew last season under Chris Fagan – and there is a lot to like about the side right across the ground. They’ve now got some key support for Eric Hipwood up forward, with Joe Daniher heading north from Essendon. Promisingly, tall has already made an impact in club scratch matches. If they can get it all to click inside 50, the Lions will be an even tougher team to stop, given their style of attacking football.

6. Port Adelaide

The Power, deservingly, were the minor premiers last season and saved Ken Hinkley’s job, which was set to come under scrutiny without a top eight finish. Port exceeded expectations as it banked wins and saw key players have career-best seasons. That was emphasised by Charlie Dixon’s marking ability close to goal, which was a real threat for opponents. Considering Port’s entire list is fully fit in the back-end of the pre-season, it’s looming like another big season for the club.

7. St Kilda

The Saints surprised many last season when they managed to not only reach the finals, but make it into the second week before being defeated by the eventual premiers. While they might not have the top talent like other contenders around them do, Brett Ratten has implemented a great game plan and their core group produce consistent, reliable footy. New co-captain Jack Steele was exceptional in 2020, while young trio Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield and Max King had their best seasons yet. With age on their side, there’s plenty for Saints fans to be excited about ahead of the season.

8. Fremantle

Under a new coach, the young Dockers players were awesome in the back-half of 2020, ending the season with an excellent percentage of 93.7. In a great sign of development, Justin Longmuir was happy to leave star Nat Fyfe resting forward for longer periods than in previous seasons under Ross Lyon. It meant Adam Cerra, Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong were exposed as genuine midfielders more often. If the young guns can hit the scoreboard more often this season, it’ll go a long way to getting the club close to the top eight.

9. Sydney Swans
10. Gold Coast Suns
11. West Coast Eagles
12. Melbourne
13. Collingwood
14. GWS Giants
15. Essendon
16. Adelaide Crows
17. Hawthorn
18. North Melbourne

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-afl-ladder-afl-fixture-and-results-expected-results-wins-loss-news-afl-hype-ladder/news-story/3b9a6d81b002f36754f9deb99403e0b9

[one-eyed]

Heading into 2021 now and there’s one team screaming off the page as a Richmond-beater. They already have premiership success and have probably only one more chance to grab another piece of silverware.

That team is the West Coast Eagles.

https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/02/12/the-premiership-dark-horse-going-under-the-radar/

[one-eyed]

Another veteran Cat injured.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/549767/star-cat-scratched-from-pre-season-as-fitness-battle-looms-for-r1

[one-eyed]

Foxsport's "Pythagorean expectation" formula is predicting Brisbane to fall this year saying they overperformed last year. It also predicts Geelong to win more games in 2021 claiming claiming they underperformed in last year.


ps. For the record, this time last year they tipped us to win fewer games than we did:

The stat ... predicted Richmond to fall after winning 16 games in 2019 off a percentage of a 13.6-win team. They won 12.5 games, which is roughly like winning 16 games in a full season.

So no decline there, though we’d point out the Tigers certainly weren’t as dominant in the home and away season as most expected.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-preview-2021-ladder-predictions-pythagorean-wins-risers-and-fallers-teams-that-will-improve-and-decline-stats-analysis/news-story/cbd3462188270059874d845c5901308e

[one-eyed]

RICHARDSON’S TOP SIX LOCKS, BOTTOM SIX AND FOUR CLUBS IN THE FINALS MIX

SEN
25 February 2021

Richmond great Matthew Richardson has listed his top six locks, the four clubs in the finals mix and the bottom six who are unlikely to play finals in 2021.

Richardson has reigning premiers Richmond, Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Brisbane finishing in the top six.

“They are almost certainties to play finals,” he told Sportsday.

The three-time All-Australian says the Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Collingwood and GWS will be in the mix to play finals.

Richardson also expects Carlton and Fremantle to improve this season.

“If Zac Williams comes in and plays well and (Adam) Saad in the back half, Carlton can really improve,” he said.

“As can Fremantle. I think they’re on the right track with their game style.”

The champion Tiger doesn’t expect Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Essendon to challenge for a top eight spot.

The Crows, Hawks, Swans, Suns, Kangaroos and Bombers all finished in the bottom six last season.

Top six locks: Richmond, Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Brisbane.

Four teams in the mix below them: Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Collingwood, GWS Giants.

Teams that will improve: Carlton, Fremantle.

Bottom six group who are unlikely to play finals: Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Essendon.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/02/24/richardsons-top-six-locks-bottom-six-and-four-clubs-in-the-finals-mix/

[one-eyed]

10 AFL experts predict the 2021 premiers - and they struggled to split three clubs

Fox Footy experts predict who'll win the 2021 flag.

Ben Waterworth
Fox Sports
March 3rd, 2021 1:17 pm

Richmond is still the AFL team to beat in the AFL – but two fellow contenders loom as the Tigers’ biggest threats this year.

Foxfooty.com.au this week asked 10 Fox Footy experts for their 2021 premiership tips, with three clubs featuring prominently among the predictions.

Three analysts tipped Geelong to atone for its 2019 Grand Final loss to the Tigers and capitalise on an eye-catching trade period that saw it add Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith to an already star-studded list.

Melbourne champion Garry Lyon said this season shapes as the Cats’ “last roll of the dice” – but “they might have got it just right” with their trading.

“There are big dogs that know their time is running out,” Lyon told foxfooty.com.au’s Tom Morris.

“Jeremy Cameron might just add extra.

“They weren’t far away (last year). They might get one more big crack at it.”

Four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis added the Cats’ off-season acquisitions are “for the now and they complement their side well”.

However, the prospect of a Richmond three-peat – and fourth flag in five seasons – looms large.

It’s a feat former Hawthorn sharpshooter Ben Dixon boldly predicted prior to the 2019 Grand Final between the Tigers and the Giants, declaring Damien Hardwick’s men were “on a big ride here” and a win over the Giants would be “the first of three”.

Over two years later, Dixon’s tip, unsurprisingly, hasn’t changed.

“They’re going to prove I’m the biggest genius in football – the best kept secret in the AFL,” Dixon told foxfooty.com.au with tongue firmly in cheek.

Triple premiership forward Cameron Mooney is also in the Richmond camp – primarily because 17 other teams still have no answer to the Tigers’ most dominant player.

“I’m going to say Richmond because of Dusty Martin,” Mooney told foxfooty.com.au. “I just don’t think any team’s got anyone to stop him, until someone puts a legitimate tag on him.

“He’s the best player in the game. Does it mean he has the most consistent season? Probably not, compared to what he did in 2017. But he just builds and then he gets to the finals and he’s on another level to everybody else in the competition. He’s arguably the greatest finals player we’ve seen.

“Until someone or a team proves me wrong, or Richmond just takes the foot off the pedal, you’ve still got to go through Richmond to win it.”

Triple All-Australian Nick Dal Santo told foxfooty.com.au’s Matt Balmer: “To put it simply, someone has to catch them.

“The Tigers are out in front and they have been for four years really. It’s someone else’s responsibility to catch them to show us why the Tigers aren’t the best team anymore.”

However a few AFL greats were also bullish on the prospects of Port Adelaide, which last year surged into flag contention to capture the minor premiership and fell six points short of making a Grand Final.

In fact Adelaide legend Mark Ricciuto told foxfooty.com.au’s David Zita that if the Power had Port “put more attention into Dusty” last year, they would’ve won that preliminary final.

Ricciuto said the Power were his flag favourites at this stage, while Bulldogs games record-holder Brad Johnson said the Power “play the right brand of footy” and should get growth and improvement from their recruits to win the premiership.

Triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown added: “They had really good momentum last year. Good veterans and blokes in the prime of the career. Charlie Dixon plays with the most presence. They play a fast brand of footy too.”

— with Tom Morris, David Zita and Matt Balmer

WHICH TEAM WINS THE 2021 AFL PREMIERSHIP?

Jonathan Brown: Port Adelaide

Nick Dal Santo: Richmond

Ben Dixon: Richmond

Brad Johnson: Port Adelaide

David King: Richmond

Jordan Lewis: Geelong

Garry Lyon: Geelong

Cameron Mooney: Richmond

Mark Ricciuto: Port Adelaide

Nick Riewoldt: Geelong

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predictions-2021-fox-footy-experts-tip-who-wins-premiership-flag-richmond-odds-dustin-martin-geelong/news-story/002ad0804319baf83f4016b5e91541c8

[one-eyed]

GARRY LYON'S TOP EIGHT "LOCKS" AND THE TEAMS MOST LIKELY TO JUMP INTO FINALS

BY SEN
3 March 2021

Garry Lyon has named the top eight teams from last year that he believes are “locks” to make it once again in 2021.

When asked on SEN Breakfast who he thought would fall out from last year’s finalists, Lyon said he hadn’t worked out his exact top eight just yet, but feels five teams are reasonably safe bets.

“I’ve got Richmond a lock, I’ve got Geelong a lock. I’ve got Port Adelaide a lock, I’ve got the Lions a lock, I’ve got the Saints a lock and the other three are up in the air,” Lyon said.

“I think the Eagles will make it, I think the (Dogs) will probably make it, I’d say Collingwood (is the most vulnerable).

“I said it the other day, I can’t work out what (Collingwood is) going to do. They may gather themselves and have another tilt or they might drop out, I don’t know the answer to that.”

Of the teams outside the eight, who is most like to jump into the eight?

“Freo, Carlton and Melbourne would be the ones. I like Freo,” Lyon added.

Tim Watson also answered the question, saying: “I think Carlton. They are primed”.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/03/03/garry-lyons-top-eight-locks-and-the-teams-most-likely-to-jump-into-finals/

[pmac21]

Saints half forward line looks pretty familiar
HF: J.Higgins 22 J.Battle 26 D.Butler 16

[Diocletian]

Did Higgins & Butler ever play together in the ones? Feel Higgins came in when Butler first lost his spot but then think Rioli was also still injured from the '17 GF when Higgins debuted....

With the weight of expectation - wouldn't be surprised if Saints are a total flop... 

[one-eyed]

Club captains' 2021 predictions:

afl.com.au
10 March 2021

Which seven other clubs do you think can make this year's top eight?

17 – Brisbane, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Richmond
15 – West Coast, St Kilda
9 – Western Bulldogs
8 – Collingwood
4 – Greater Western Sydney
2 – Gold Coast
1 – Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Melbourne

Which other club is most likely to reach the Grand Final?

7 – Richmond
5 – Brisbane
3 – Port Adelaide
2 – Geelong
1 – West Coast

(Four captains picked eventual premier Richmond in 2020).

https://www.afl.com.au/news/560597/grand-finalists-brownlow-top-eight-afl-captains-make-2021-call

[one-eyed]

Montagna is tipping one of Gold Coast, Melbourne, Carlton or Fremantle to make the top 4.

Based on past years where bottom-10 teams that surged into the top four 12 months later:

2011: West Coast Eagles (16th to 4th)
2012: Adelaide (14th to 2nd)
2013: No change
2014: No change
2015: West Coast Eagles (9th to 2nd)
2016: Geelong (10th to 2nd) and GWS Giants (11th to 4th)
2017: Richmond (13th to 3rd)
2018: Collingwood (13th to 3rd) and Hawthorn (12th to 4th)
2019: Brisbane Lions (15th to 2nd)
2020: Port Adelaide (10th to 1st)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-predictions-2021-ladder-tips-gold-coast-suns-carlton-collingwood-to-miss-finals-leigh-montagna-on-afl-360/news-story/9f450cfabebf7ec0aef578682ad832d9

[one-eyed]

Not one 'journo' on the AFL website is tipping us to win the flag.

                           Premiers            Runners-up       Richmond's ladder pos.
Damian Barrett     Port Adelaide        Brisbane                 3rd
Riley Beveridge     Port Adelaide        Geelong                  3rd
Sarah Black          Port Adelaide        Richmond                2nd
Mitch Cleary         Port Adelaide        Brisbane                  3rd
Cameron Noakes     Brisbane            Geelong                  4th
Nathan Schmook   Port Adelaide        Richmond               1st
Callum Twomey     Port Adelaide        Geelong                 3rd
Michael Whiting       Geelong             Brisbane                 4th

https://www.afl.com.au/news/560486/crystal-ball-our-predictions-for-the-2021-afl-season-are-in